Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
TCF Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Sunday, November 22, 2015, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Green Bay pick
Current Line: Green Bay -1
Opening Total: 45
Current Total: 44
Opening Money Line: Green Bay -110 / Minnesota -110
Current Money Line: Green Bay -115 / Minnesota -105
Three weeks ago, the Green Bay Packers were 6-0 and considered one of the elite teams in the NFL. However, after a three game losing streak, the Packers aren’t even in first place in the NFC North. The Packers are behind the 7-2 Minnesota Vikings. The two longtime rivals meet Sunday in Minneapolis.
Green Bay leads the series 58-49-2 against Minnesota. The Packers have gone 9-1-1 against the Vikings since 2010. Green Bay has won four of the last five with one tie in the mix. The Packers won both meetings last year 42-10 in Green Bay and 24-21 in Minneapolis.. The two teams close out the regular season January 3 at Lambeau.
Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. The Packers have home wins over the Seattle Seahawks 27-17, Kansas City Chiefs 38-28, St. Louis Rams 24-10 and San Diego Chargers 27-20, along with road wins at the Chicago Bears 31-23 and San Francisco 49ers 17-3. Green Bay has road losses at the Denver Broncos 29-10 and Carolina Panthers 37-29, along with a home loss last week to the Detroit Lions 18-16.
The Panthers and Broncos are a combined 16-2 so those losses can be excused. The Lions entered the game last week with only one win and hadn’t won in Green Bay since 1991. The Packers were 10.5 point favorites against the Lions and the total was 50. After an early Green Bay field goal, Detroit scored 12 straight points (including a missed extra point) to lead by 9 in the fourth quarter. The Packers pulled to with 12-10 with just under six minutes left. Detroit scored with 1:57 left, but missed the extra point for the second time. Green Bay pulled to within 18-16 with 32 seconds left, but missed the two point conversion. The Packers recovered the onside kick but missed a 52 yard field goal as time expired. Green Bay is 5-4 ATS and the total is 3-6 this season.
Minnesota is coached by Mike Zimmer. After a 2-2 start the Vikings have won five straight games. Minnesota has road losses at the 49ers 20-3 and Broncos 23-20. The Vikings have home wins over the Lions 26-16, Chargers 31-14, Chiefs 16-10, and Rams 21-18, plus road wins over the Lions 28-19, Bears 23-20 and last week against the Oakland Raiders 30-14.
Minnesota was a 3 point underdog at Oakland and the total was 44. The Vikings took a 13-0 lead early in the second, but the Raiders scored two straight touchdowns to lead 14-13. Minnesota regained the lead with a late second quarter kick return for a touchdown to make it 20-14. Neither team scored in the third quarter. Minnesota added a field goal and sealed the game with an 80 yard touchdown run from Adrian Peterson with under two minutes left. Peterson had 203 yards on 26 carries with the lone touchdown. Minnesota is 8-1 ATS and the total is 1-7-1 this season.
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Green Bay is outscoring teams 24-21 this season. The Packers are #11 in scoring and #12 in points allowed. Green Bay is averaging 344 yards per game on offense including 236 passing and 108 rushing yards. The Packers are #21 in total offense and #22 in passing. On defense, the Packers are allowing 372 yards per game including 255 passing and 116 rushing yards. Green Bay is #21 or worse in all three categories. The Packers are 45/118 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 57/139. Green Bay has forced 23 sacks and has allowed 22 this season. The Packers are +7 in turnovers with a defensive touchdown.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 63.3% of his passes for 2,270 yards along with 21 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 37 carries for 221 yards. He is probable with a shoulder injury. He just hasn’t looked as crisp as he did last year when he won the MVP.
Running back Eddie Lacy has 83 carries for 308 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 10 catches for 92 yards. He is probable with a groin injury after missing last week. He has been demoted as the starter in favor of James Starks. Starks has 93 carries for 376 yards and a touchdown along with 25 catches for 221 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Receiver Randall Cobb has 45 catches for 529 yards and 5 touchdowns. James Jones has 24 catches for 483 yards and 6 touchdowns. Davante Adams has 27 catches for 272 yards. Tight end Richard Rodgers has 33 catches for 256 yards and 5 touchdowns. Ty Montgomery has 15 catches for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is doubtful with an ankle injury. Receiver Jordy Nelson is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered during the pre-season. Six defensive players and four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.
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Minnesota is outscoring teams 22-17 this season. The Vikings are #2 in points allowed and #22 in scoring. Minnesota averages 329 yards per game on offense including 181 passing and 147 rushing yards. The Vikings lead the league in rushing but are #29 or worse in passing and total offense. Minnesota allows 337 total yards including 228 passing and 109 rushing yards. The Vikings are in the top ten in total and pass defense. Minnesota is 44/121 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 42/125. The Vikings have allowed 25 sacks and have forced 21 this season. Minnesota is +2 in turnovers. The Vikings have 3 special teams/defensive touchdowns.
Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has completed 64.2% of his passes for 1,810 yards with 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 26 carries for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a shoulder injury. Shaun Hill is the back-up.
Adrian Peterson has 195 carries for 961 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 19 catches for 138 yards. He is probable with a hamstring injury. Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata will also get carries. Asiata is questionable with a quad injury. He only has 16 carries, but does have 12 catches out of the backfield.
Receiver Stefon Diggs has 30 catches for 507 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mike Wallace has 28 catches for 318 yards and a touchdown. Jarius Wright has 13 catches for 194 yards. Tight end Kyle Rudolph has 23 catches for 182 yards and 3 touchdowns. Charles Johnson and Adam Thielen each have 9 catches. Eight defensive players are listed on the injury report.
Green Bay is 5-2-1 ATS in week 11 and after gaining more than 350 total yards, 5-2 against NFC teams, 35-16-2 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 39-18 against NFC North teams, 23-11-1 against teams with winning records, and 2-5 against teams with winning home records, 1-4 in November, and on fieldturf, and 0-4 overall. The over is 11-4 overall in this series recently and 11-3-1 in Minneapolis between the teams.
Minnesota is 8-0 ATS after a straight up win, 6-0 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 5-0 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, and in November, 4-0 against teams with winning records, against teams with winning road records, and against NFC teams, 10-1 on fieldturf, 5-1 against NFC north teams, and after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 4-1 after allowing less than 15 points, 7-2 after rushing for 150 yards or more, 17-5 after a cover, 22-7 after gaining more than 350 total yards, 23-8 overall, 20-7 after passing for less than 150 yards, 19-7 at home, and 0-4 in week 11. The home team is 7-2 ATS in this series recently.
Green Bay has struggled on offense mainly because they have no running game to speak of and without Nelson they don’t have a reliable receiver. I don’t know if those problems can be fixed immediately. The Vikings fans will be fired up and I think Minnesota wins a close game to take a two game lead in the NFC North.