NCAA Week 6 SEC Showdown: (3) LSU Tigers at (10) Florida Gators — Betting Preview and Predictions

Spencer Ware and the Tigers enter the game as 3 point favorites against No. 10 Florida.

(3) LSU- (10) Florida
Time: 3:30 PM EST, Saturday
Spread: LSU -3
Total: 42.5

Betting Odds from Bookmaker


The LSU Tigers have stormed out to a 5-0 record and are ranked 3rd in the AP poll. With huge victories over North Texas, Washington, and Idaho, the Tigers set themselves up nicely. However, the last two weeks they have “struggled” against Auburn and Towson, winning the game against Auburn by only two and the victory over Towson should have been a lot more lopsided than the 38-22 final score indicated it was.

The Tigers led 24-9 after three quarters, but gave up 13 points to Towson in the final quarter, as Terrance West ran one in for a TD and Gerrard Sheppard caught a 9 yard pass for a TD and a failed two point conversion that followed it with 1:30 left in the 4th quarter.

Tigers QB Zach Mettenberger threw for 238 yards and two TDs, recording a QB rating of 160.0. He’s been 140+ QB rating for every game except the defensively oriented win over Auburn in week 4. He has been sacked 11 times this season and thrown two interceptions. That’s not bad, but if Mettenberger can avoid being sacked by the strong Florida Gators DL this week, it will go a long way towards the Tigers winning this game, as college football oddsmakers favor them by a field goal.

LSU Betting Trends:

Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on the road vs teams with winning home records, and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing less than 170 passing yards. They are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following an SU win and 9-3 ATS vs teams with winning records.


Like LSU, the 10th ranked Gators are undefeated on the year as well, with wins over Bowling Green in week 1, Texas A & M in week 2, and then No. 23 Tennessee in week 3, while also winning a 38-0 shutout over Kentucky last week.

The win over Tennessee was the most impressive, as it gave the Gators a boost in the AP polls. They scored the final 24 points of the game to upset Tennessee at home. The Gators had 555 total yards, including 336 on the ground, as Mike Gillislee and Trey Burton combined for 206 yards. Burton scored two TDs and had his 91 yards on only three carries, since one was an 80 yard TD run in the third quarter, which tied the score at 20 following the Caleb Sturgis kick. It was really all Burton has done this year, and he didn’t play last week in the win over UK.

Jeff Driskel has been impressive this year with a QB rating of 158.0. He’s been sacked 12 times but has only thrown one interception and his completion rate is 69.6 percent. He hasn’t below a QBrating of 134 yet, and his best game was that big win over Tennessee when he threw for 219 yards on 14 of 20 passing, while recording two TDs.

Florida will have to get Driskel going and get the most out of their rushing game, which ranks 20th in the nation with 224.5 yards per game. Still, it will be their defense that may win it for them if they pull the slight upset, as they have allowed only 12.8 points per game (10th best in the nation).

Gators Betting Trends:

Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a bye week, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs teams with winning road records, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following an SU win of 20+, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 in October.

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Posted by on Oct 4 2012. Filed under College Football, Headlines. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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