2017 NCAA Tournament
Midwest Region – First Round
#5 Iowa State Cyclones vs #12 Nevada Wolf Pack
Thursday, March 16, 2017, 9:57 pm Eastern, TV: TruTV
BMO Harris Bradley Center – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Opening Line: Iowa State -6 1/2
Current Line: Iowa State -6 1/2
Opening Total: 155 1/2
Current Total: 157
Opening Money Line: Iowa State -270 / Nevada +230
Current Money Line: Iowa State -275 / Nevada +235
The 23-10 Iowa State Cyclones take on the 28-6 Nevada Wolf Pack in the Midwest region first round Thursday in Milwaukee. Iowa State is the #5 seed in the region and finished tied for second in the Big 12 with Baylor and West Virginia at 12-6. Nevada won the Mountain West regular season title with a 14-4 record and are the #12 seed in the region. The winner will play either #4 seed Purdue or #13 Vermont in the second round Saturday. Nevada and Iowa State have never met in basketball before.
Nevada is coached by Eric Musselman. The Wolf Pack won the Mountain West Tournament in Las Vegas by beating Colorado State 79-71 in the championship game last Saturday. Nevada has won 9 straight games. Nevada makes their seventh trip to the NCAA tournament and first since 2007.
Nevada has road losses at St. Mary’s, Fresno State, Utah State, and San Diego State, plus a neutral site loss to Iona in Anchorage and a home loss to Fresno State. The Wolf Pack have home wins over Loyola Marymount, Oregon State, Iona, Pacific, UC-Irvine, San Jose State, San Diego State, Air Force, New Mexico, UNLV, Utah State, Boise State, and Colorado State. Nevada has road wins over Bradley, Washington, New Mexico, Wyoming, Boise State, Utah State, Air Force, UNLV, San Jose State, plus neutral site wins over Oakland and Buffalo in Anchorage, Towson, UC-Santa Barbara, Utah State and Fresno State in Las Vegas. Nevada is 23-10-1 ATS and the total is 18-14-2 this season. The Wolf Pack were 5.5 point favorites against Colorado State and the total was 142.
Iowa State is coached by Steve Prohm. The Cyclones were the #4 seed in the Big 12 tournament but won it last week in Kansas City. The Cyclones beat Oklahoma State 92-83 in the quarters, TCU 84-63 in the semis and West Virginia 51-50 in the Championship game Saturday. Iowa State has won 9 of the last 10 games. Iowa State is making their 19th trip to the tournament including six straight.
Iowa State has a neutral site loss to Gonzaga in Orlando, home losses to Cincinnati, Kansas, and West Virginia, plus road losses at Iowa, Baylor, TCU, Vanderbilt, Texas and West Virginia. The Cyclones have home wins over Mount St. Mary’s, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. Iowa State has neutral site wins over Indiana State and Miami in Orlando, plus road wins at Drake, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech.
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Nevada is outscoring teams 80-71 this season. The Wolf Pack are #38 in scoring nationally. Nevada is shooting 45% from the field and 38.5% from three point range. The Wolf Pack are #39 in three point shooting nationally. Nevada makes 70.3% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 42.5% from the field and 30.7% from three point range. The Wolf Pack are #13 nationally in field goal defense. Nevada averages 38.9 rebounds per game and opponents average 31.8 per game. The Wolf Pack average 16.1 assists, 11.1 turnovers, 5.3 steals and 4.4 blocks per game. Opponents average 13.6 assists, 11.3 turnovers, 5.6 steals and 2.2 blocks per game.
Marcus Marshall averages 19.8 points, 2.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists. Cameron Oliver averages 15.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 2.6 blocks per game. Jordan Caroline averages 14.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.1 steals per game. D.J. Fenner averages 14.1 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game. Elijah Foster averaged 12 points and 7.4 rebounds bit is suspended for the rest of the season after playing in only 7 games. Lindsey Drew averages 5.9 points, 5 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Leland King II and Josh Hall will also get time in the rotation. Collin Weaver is out with a wrist injury.
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Iowa State is outscoring teams 81-72. The Cyclones are #27 in scoring nationally. Iowa State is shooting 46.9% from the field and 40.2% from 3 point range. The Cyclones are #13 in three point shooting nationally. ISU makes 69.8% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 42.8% from the field and 34.8% from 3 point range. Iowa State averages 34.9 rebounds per game and opponents average 36. The Cyclones average 15.8 assists, 10.2 turnovers, 7.9 steals and 3.6 blocks per game. Opponents average 13.5 assists, 14.4 turnovers, 4.6 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.
Monte Morris averages 16.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Nazareth Mitrou-Long averages 15.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Deonte Burton averages 14.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. Matt Thomas averages 12 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. Five other players will get time in the rotation. Center Stewart Nezlek is out for the season with a shoulder injury.
Nevada is 8-0 ATS after a straight up win, 20-4-2 against teams with winning records, 5-1 as an underdog of 6.5 points or less, 4-1 in neutral site games, 19-7-1 after a cover, 38-15-2 overall, 12-5-2 in non-conference games, and 2-12 as a neutral site underdog.
Iowa State is 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, 6-1 after a cover and as an NCAA Tournament favorite, 5-1 in neutral site games, 4-1 as a favorite, 8-2 overall, 6-2 after a straight up win, 20-8 against teams with winning records, 19-9-1 as a neutral site favorite, 1-4 in non-conference games and against Mountain West teams.
Nevada has the talent to pull off the upset. They won the Mountain West that was having a down year as perennial powers San Diego State, New Mexico and UNLV were all rebuilding. This should be a track meet with two teams comfortable in the 80’s. I think Iowa State pulls away late in a high scoring game.