2017 NCAA Tournament
South Region – First Four
#11 Kansas State Wildcats vs #11 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Tuesday, March 14, 2017, 9:10 pm Eastern, TV: TruTV
University of Dayton Arena – Dayton, Ohio
Opening Line: Wake Forest Pick
Current Line: Wake Forest Pick
Opening Total: 152
Current Total: 151 1/2
Opening Money Line: Wake Forest -114 / Kansas State +100
Current Money Line: Wake Forest -114 / Kansas State +100
The 20-13 Kansas State Wildcats take on the 19-13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons in the South Region First Four Tuesday night in Dayton. The winner will be the #11 seed in the South Region and take on #6 Cincinnati in the first round Friday in Sacramento. This is the first ever meeting between the schools
Kansas State is coached by Bruce Weber. The Wildcats finished sixth in the Big 12 with an 8-10 record. Kansas State upset #3 seed Baylor 70-64 in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City and then lost to #2 seed West Virginia 51-50 in the semifinals. The Wildcats are making their 29th trip to the NCAA tournament and first since 2014.
Kansas State has neutral site losses to Maryland in Brooklyn, and West Virginia, road losses to Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Tennessee, West Virginia, plus home losses to Baylor, TCU, Kansas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma, Oklahoma State. The Wildcats have home wins over Hampton, Robert Morris, Green Bay, Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech, road wins over Saint Louis, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas, and TCU. Kansas State has neutral site wins over Boston College in Brooklyn, Washington State and Baylor in Kansas City, and Colorado State in Denver. Kansas State is 15-12-2 ATS and the total is 13-16 this season. The Wildcats were 6 point underdogs against West Virginia last Thursday in the semifinals and the total was 140.
Wake Forest is coached by Danny Manning. The Demon Deacons finished 10th in the ACC with a 9-9 record. Some say Wake took the spot of Syracuse who finished 10-8 in the ACC and beat the Demon Deacons head to head. Wake Forest beat Boston College 92-78 in the first round of the ACC Tournament in Brooklyn but lost to Virginia Tech 99-90 in the second round. The Demon Deacons are making their 23rd appearance in the NCAA Tournament and first since 2010.
Wake Forest has neutral site losses to Villanova in Charleston, and Virginia Tech in Brooklyn, road losses at Northwestern, Xavier, Florida State, Virginia, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Duke, plus home losses to Clemson, North Carolina, and Duke. The Demon Deacons have home wins over Bucknell, Coastal Carolina, Charlotte, LSU, Boston College, Miami, Georgia Tech, NC State, Pittsburgh, and Louisville, road wins over Charleston, Richmond, UNC-Greensboro, NC State, Boston College, and Virginia Tech, plus neutral site wins over UTEP in Charleston and Boston College in Brooklyn. Wake Forest is 16-14 ATS and the total is 21-8-1 this season. The Demon Deacons were 3 point favorites against Virginia Tech last week and the total was 161.5.
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Kansas State is outscoring teams 72-67 this season. The Wildcats are shooting 45.8% from the field and 36.1% from 3 point range. Kansas State makes 68.9% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 42.5% from the field and 38.3% from 3 point range. Kansas State averages 32.7 rebounds per game and opponents average 31.2 per game. Kansas State averages 15 assists, 13.1 turnovers, 7.8 steals and 3.8 blocks per game. Opponents average 13.2 assists, 15.2 turnovers, 6.3 steals and 3.3 blocks per game.
Wesley Iwundu averages 12.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1 steal a game. Barry Brown averages 11.7 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 2.4 steals per game. Kamau Stokes averages 11.6 points, 2.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.1 steals per game. D.J. Johnson averages 11.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. Dean Wade averages 9.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.8 assists. Xavier Sneed averages 7.4 points and 2.6 rebounds per game. Forward James Love (foot) and guard Cartier Diarra (knee) are both out for the season.
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Wake Forest is outscoring teams 83-78 this season. The Demon Deacons are #301 in points allowed nationally but #16 in scoring. Wake is shooting 47.2% from the field and 38.7% from 3 point range. The Deacons make 77.3% of their free throws. The Deacons are #43 or better in all three shooting categories. Opponents are shooting 45.2% from the field and 35.7% from 3 point range. Wake Forest averages 36.8 rebounds per game and opponents average 30.8 per game. The Deacons average 15.6 assists, 11.8 turnovers, 5.5 steals and 3.8 blocks per game. Opponents average 14.1 assists, 11.5 turnovers, 6 steals and 3.8 blocks per game.
John Collins averages 18.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game. Bryant Crawford averages 16.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Keyshawn Woods averages 12.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Konstaninos Mitoglou averages 9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. Austin Arians, Mitchell Wilbekin, and Brandon Childress will also get some time in the rotation.
Kansas State is 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records, and overall, 3-1-1 after a cover, 15-7 in Tuesday games and 1-4 in NCAA Tournament games.
Wake Forest is 6-0 ATS after a cover, 5-0 against Big 12 teams, 6-1 after allowing more than 90 points, 4-1 in non-conference games, 5-2 after a straight up loss, 1-5 in Tuesday games and 1-10 in NCAA tournament games.
Wake Forest wants to run opponents out of the arena, but they play very little defense. Kansas State can run little too but they would be better served playing in the 60’s or 70’s. I think Kansas State escapes with a close win in an entertaining game.