NCAA Football Week 6 Picks: Miami Hurricanes at (9) Notre Dame Fighting IrishMiami (FL)- (9) Notre Dame
Time: 7:30 PM EST, Saturday
Spread: NOT -13
Betting Odds from Bookmaker
After two impressive upset victories in a row, the Hurricanes find themselves in a nice place: A huge upset win over Notre Dame would almost certainly land them a spot in the top 25 rankings (they garnered four AP votes). While college football oddsmakers are not giving them a strong chance, setting the line at 13 points in Notre Dame’s favor, Hurricanes staff feels confident the team can snag another upset victory.
The offense has been the main reason why, as they are coming off two wins in which they totaled 86 points and surpassed 600 yards in both contests. QB Stephen Morris threw for a school and ACC record 566 yards in the win over NC State last week, as he clinched it with a 62 yard TD pass with 19 seconds to go.
Morris said he’s “Been waiting for this game (against ND) since freshman year. It’s going to mean a lot to me and my family…for the program….we’re going to make sure we’re ready for this game.”
Miami will be without fifth year senior Bob Jones on the OL, though, as he injured his foot last week and will be unable to go. That may hurt Morris’ pocket protection some, but he’s been effective scrambling, if he ends up being forced out of the pocket more against a tough Notre Dame DL.
Hurricanes Betting Trends:
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS their last 6 after allowing 450+ yards previous game, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on grass, 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games following an ATS win, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs independent schools (like Notre Dame).
The 9th rated Fighting Irish have rolled through their first four opponents with a combined score of 103-36, and now face another tough challenge in the Miami Hurricanes. They’ve won the last two weeks over ranked opponents (then No. 10 Michigan State and then. No. 18 Michigan).
In the 13-6 victory over Michigan, the defense stymied Denard Robinson, who had totaled 948 yards of offense in victories over ND in the past two seasons. The Irish repeatedly put him in tough situations, though, and he threw four first half interceptions and then fumbled the ball in the second half on the Notre Dame 8.
“The key to stopping Robinson…is everybody has to get to him….(he’ll) start running one way, then totally cut back the other way. Everybody has to get to the ball…” said Manti T’eo.
T’eo forms a strong and quick Notre Dame defense that will give Stephen Morris as much as he can handle.
The offense was less impressive, but ND coach Brian Kelly gave a lot of credit to the Michigan D saying that “(they) knew (they) were going to be in for this kind of close, tough, hard nosed football game…proud of the way our guys pulled it off.”
Can they pull it off again against the Hurricanes? It will take a strong defensive effort again as they did against Michigan, because while Stephen Morris may not be quite the talent Robinson is, he’s very very good.
Notre Dame Betting Trends:
Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after accumulating less than 275 yards previous game, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 following a bye week, 2-5 ATS vs teams with winning records, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following an ATS win.
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