NCAA Football Week 6 Picks: (3) Florida State Seminoles at NC State WolfpackFlorida St-NC State
Time: 8 PM EST, Saturday
Spread: FLAST -14.5
Betting Odds from Bookmaker
The Seminoles have continued to rise in the AP polls on the strength of five consecutive victories to start the season. The win over Clemson in week 4 has set the tone for a team that has a legitimate chance at taking the BCS title at this point.
Last week, they took care of business in Tampa, defeating the South Florida Bulls by 13. E.J. Manuel turned in yet another brilliant performance, throwing for 242 yards, which enabled the Seminoles to avenge the loss they suffered to the Bulls in 2009.
The game was not quite flawless, but the end result was the same for Florida State, a victory. Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher commented that they “hit a lot of big plays…(but) didn’t convert in the red zone….If (we) convert in the red zone and get TDs instead of FGs, its a little different situation.”
That shouldn’t be too much of a problem against NC State, who enters the game as 14.5 point underdogs according to college football oddsmakers. The Wolfpack has a decent defense, but it takes more than the 45th best defense in the nation to put the stops to Manuel and his talented core of receivers. Moreover, Maryland’s offense is only slightly better than their defense, as they have averaged 30.2 points per game through the first five games. NC State has managed a 3-2 record despite the middling ranks in both offense and defense, mostly on the strength of their passing game.
QB Mike Glennon is having himself a great senior season, and has posted a QB rating of 141.7. His 61.9 percent completion ratio is bolstered by the fact he is 74.1 percent at home, which will serve the Wolfpack well this week as they host the Seminoles. Glennon has improved every year in the NCAA, and has thrown for at least 200 yards in all five Wolfpack games. His best performance came last week against Miami, but NC State lost the game. In the loss to the tough Hurricanes squad, Glennon threw for 440 yards and managed four TDs, but he also threw two interceptions, which mitigated what could have been an almost absurdly good QB rating. This week will be rough most likely, as the FSU secondary has consistently given the most talented receiving corps big problems.
Florida State Betting Trends:
Seminoles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards and they are 2-5 ATS following an SU win.
NC State Betting Trends:
Wolfpack is 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 following an ATS loss, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 after allowing more than 40 points the previous week. They are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 following an SU loss and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 after accumulating more than 200 rushing yards the previous week.
Want to crush the bookies? Make sure to check out our paid pick plans for the 2012 season. Our handicapping team has an excellent track record of lining people’s pockets, so get in on the gravy train!