NCAA Football Week 10 Picks: Connecticut Huskies at South Florida BullsUConn – South Florida
Time: 7 PM EST, Sat
Spread: SO FLA -8
Betting Odds from Bookmaker
It hasn’t been a good season for the South Florida Bulls. As losers of their last six games, they’ll enter this week as an 8 point favorite against UConn, according to college football oddsmakers.
In South Florida’s defense, two of the six losses have been to tough ranked opponents. But posse s to Ball State and Syracuse sting, and the Bulls have yet to win a game in the Big East, sitting at 0-4. The good news is that taking on UConn could bring that first win, as the Huskies are 0-3 in Big East play themselves.
The Bulls offense has been decent. They rank 57th in the nation in passing yardage with 236.9 per game, and rank 44th in rush yards, with 181.4 per game. It renders their offense mildly effective, averaging 28.6 points per per game, but mildly effective isn’t enough to win with a mediocre defense. The Bulls have given up 26.5 points per game on average, and it would be a couple points higher if not for their 34-13 win over Chattanooga.
Last week was a good example of the problems the Bulls have, as they scored 36, but gave up 37 to Syracuse. They managed 552 total yards, which was more than Syracuse’s 520, but the Bulls weren’t effective in the air, as only 183 yards came from the pass. Senior QB BJ Daniels has struggled this season, and has a QB rating of 127.1, which is mainly the result of nine interceptions and 10 sacks. His completion ratio is down from last year’s 58.9 percent though, to 55.9 percent. The Bulls will need a big game from Daniels if they are going to right the ship before season’s end.
UConn has been very solid defensively, but horrible offensively—a more extreme version of South Florida, essentially. The Huskies have allowed only 19.3 points per game (21st in the nation), but manage to score only 17.9 per game themselves. It’s mainly because they have no rushing game to speak of at all, averaging just 86.9 yards per game on the ground. Their passing has been somewhat effective (64th in the nation for 229.9 yards per game), but the lack of diversification in play calling has made their offense predictable and stagnant.
Sophomore QB Chandler Whitmer is looking like he could be one of the better in the Big East going into next season, but without a strong recruiting class of backs, he’s not ever going to be much better than average. He’s been sacked 22 times this season and thrown 11 interceptions, and both figures would be lower if the Huskies could run the ball, and protect Whitmer better when he’s looking for receivers.
Connecticut Betting Trends:
Huskies are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 in NOV, 25-9 ATS in their last 34 after scoring less than 20 previous game, 1-4 ATS in last 5 after accumulating 280+ passing yards, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after an SU loss of 20+, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 450+ yards previous game, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 overall.
South Florida Betting Trends:
Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after accumulating more than 200 rush yards previous game, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 450+ total yards previous game, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 in NOV, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs team with losing records, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs teams with losing road records, and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 on grass.
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