NBA Western Conference Playoffs Game Six Wagering Picks: #3 Los Angeles Clippers at #6 Golden State Warriors

2014 NBA Playoffs
Western Conference Quarterfinals Game #6

#3 Los Angeles Clippers at #6 Golden State Warriors
Clippers Lead Best of Seven Series 3-2

Oracle Arena – Oakland, California
Thursday, May 1, 2014, 10:35 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
Opening Line: Los Angeles -1
Current Line: Los Angeles -1 1/2
Opening Total: 210
Current Total: 209 1/2
Opening Money Line: Clippers -110 / Warriors -110
Opening Money Line: Clippers -115 / Warriors -105

The Warriors try to stave off elimination in game six at home against the Clippers Thursday night.

The Warriors try to stave off elimination in game six at home against the Clippers Thursday night.

Hours after NBA Commissioner Adam Silver banned Los Angeles Clippers’ owner Donald Sterling for life and recommended the NBA Board of Directors to strip him of his franchise ownership, the Clippers played game five of the Western Conference quarterfinal series against the Golden State Warriors Tuesday night. The Clippers won that game to take a 3-2 series lead. LA looks to close out the series Thursday night in Oakland. The Warriors will force game seven in Los Angeles Saturday with a win.

Golden State won game one 109-105 in LA to steal home court. The Clippers rebounding with a resounding 138-98 win game two. LA won game three in Oakland 98-96. The Warriors tied the series at 2 games apiece with a 118-97 rout in game four. The Clippers took control of the series with a 113-103 win in game five Tuesday night.

The Clippers came out for game five at home to a standing ovation from the Staples Center crowd. LA used that emotion to jump out to a 31-21 lead at the end of the first quarter. The Clippers would hold that lead until late in the third with Golden State took a 70-69 lead. The Clippers would regain the lead and take a 77-72 margin into the fourth quarter. The Warriors would never get close than 3 points in the fourth quarter. The Clippers would hold on for the 10 point win to put the Warriors on the brink of elimination.

LA Center DeAndre Jordan led the Clippers with 25 points, 18 rebounds and 4 blocks. Chris Paul scored 20 points with 6 rebounds, 7 assists, and 5 steals. Blake Griffin scored 18 points with 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals. Jamal Crawford scored 19 points off the bench. He named the NBA’s sixth man of the year this week. All five Golden State starters scored in double digits, but the bench only scored 19 points. Guard Klay Thompson scored 21 points with 5 rebounds and 4 assists. Forwards David Lee and Andre Igoudala each scored 18 points. Guard Stephen Curry scored 17 points.

Los Angeles is coached by Doc Rivers. The Clippers are 48-38-1 ATS this season and the total is 48-38-1 this season.

LA is outscoring teams 108-101. The Clippers lead the league in scoring and are #14 in points allowed. Los Angeles is shooting 47.4% from the field and 35.2% from 3 point range. The Clippers are #3 in field goal percentage and #22 in three point shooting. LA is #26 in free throw shooting at 73% from the field. Opponents are shooting 44.1% from the field and 33.2% from 3 point range. The Clippers lead the league in 3 point defense and are #5 in opponents’ field goal percentage. Los Angeles averages 43 rebounds per game and opponents average 43.7 per game. LA is #25 in rebounds allowed. The Clippers average 24.6 assists, 13.9 turnovers, 8.6 steals and 4.9 blocks per game. Opponents average 23.3 assists, 15.4 turnovers, 7 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.

Griffin averages 24.1 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Point guard Chris Paul averages 19.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, 10.7 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. Paul leads the league in assists and steals. He is nursing a sore hamstring, but is listed as probable. Guard Jamal Crawford averages 18.6 points, 2.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. He is probable with a calf injury. Guard J.J. Redick averages 15.2 points, 2.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. Guard Darren Collison averages 11.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Center DeAndre Jordan averages 10.4 points, 13.6 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game. Jordan leads the league in rebounding and is third in blocks per game.  Forward Matt Barnes averages 9.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. Danny Granger, Jared Dudley, and Willie Green will also get significant minutes. Forward Hedo Turkoglu is questionable with a back injury.

Golden State is coached by Mark Jackson. The Warriors are 44-40-3 ATS this season and the total is  37-48-2 this season.

Golden State is outscoring teams 104-100 this season. The Warriors are #10 in scoring and #10 in points allowed. Golden State is shooting 46.2% from the field and 38% from 3 point range. The Warriors are #9 in field goal percentage and #4 in three point shooting. Golden State makes 75.3% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 43.6% from the field and 34.4% from 3 point range. The Warriors are #4 in field goal defense and #3 in three point defense. Golden State averages 45.3 rebounds per game and opponents average 43.3 per game. The Warriors are #5 in rebounding and #20 in rebounds allowed. Golden State averages 23.2 assists, 15.2 turnovers, 7.7 steals and 5.1 blocks per game. Opponents average 20.2 assists, 14.9 turnovers, 8 steals and 4.2 blocks per game.

Guard Stephen Curry averages 24 points, 8.5 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game. Guard Klay Thompson averages 18.4 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. Forward David Lee averages 18.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. Lee played in the last 3 games of the season after missing the previous 7 games with a hamstring injury. Forward Harrison Barnes averages 9.5 points, 4 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. Forward Andre Iguodala averages 9.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Jermaine O’Neal, Jordan Crawford, Andrew Bogut, Marresse Speights and Draymond Green will also get some minutes. Bogut leads the team in rebounds at 10 per game and blocks at 1.8 per game. Bogut is out for this series with a rib injury. O’Neal will replace him in the starting line-up. Center Festus Ezeli is out indefinitely with a knee injury and has missed the entire season. Guard Nemanja Nedovic is probable with a calf injury.

Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS on one day rest, 8-3 after allowing 100 points or more, 2-6 against teams with winning records, 2-8 in first round playoff games, 1-4 after a cover, and 1-5 after a straight up win. The over is 4-1 overall in this series, and 5-2 in the last 7 in Oakland in the series.

Golden State is 5-0 ATS after failing to cover, 6-1 after the opponent scores 100 points or more in the previous game, 5-1 after allowing 100 points or more and at home, 14-3 in first round playoff games, 4-1 against teams with winning road records, 7-2 overall and against Western Conference teams, 5-2 in Thursday games, against teams with winning records, against Pacific Division teams and on one day rest, and 35-15-2 after a straight up loss. The home team has covered the last 4 games in this series. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS at home in the last seven against the Clippers.

Now that the ugliness of the Sterling situation is mostly behind them, the Clippers can focus on basketball again. Sterling still owns the team but he is now a figurehead at best. It appears a mere formality that he will be forced to sell the Clippers. I think the Clippers close out the series tonight, mainly because Golden State still doesn’t have anyone that can guard Griffin or Jordan.

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