NBA Western Conference Picks ATS: Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs

spurs-vs-mavericks-nba-4Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
Time: 7 PM ET, Mar 2, 2014
Spread: SAS -5.5
Total: 210.5

Betting odds courtesy of 5dimes

If the Western Conference playoffs started today, this matchup would be a first round series. Dallas is currently seated 7th in the Western Conference, but the 6-8 spots are separated by just 1.5 games and a lot could change between now and mid-April. The Mavs have won seven of its past 10 games and will travel to face San Antonio in a game NBA oddsmakers are favoring the Spurs by 5.5 points.

San Antonio is 42-16 and is 6th in the NBA in defense, allowing just 97.8 points per game. The Spurs do this while scoring 103.8 points per game and averaging the 2nd highest assist total in the league (24.6 per game). The Spurs have been without Tony Parker, who is dealing with a sprained left hand and other minor injuries, but the team has still won seven of its past 10.

The Spurs have a strong nine man rotation with all players averaging at least eight points per game, and Gregg Popovich has been able to spare any Spur the duty of playing big minutes, with Tony Parker’s 30.9 per game leading the way.

Dallas is 8th in the league in scoring (104.4 points per game), but the Mavs also surrender 102.0 points per game (22nd in NBA). Despite Dirk Nowitzki’s decline, the Mavs are a competitive team with good veteran leadership. Nowitzki still posts 21.5 points and six rebounds per game, and Monta Ellis is a good scorer, as well (19.0 points per game, 5.8 assists per game). Vince Carter, Jose Calderon and Shawn Marion may all be on the decline but the trio combines to average 34.1 points per game.

DAL Trends: 11-2 ATS in last 13 road games vs teams with home winning percentages above .600; OVER 4-1 in last 5 road games; 4-1 ATS in last 5 Sunday games.

SAS Trends: OVER 4-0 in last 4 when opponent allows 100 points or more in previous game; 1-6 ATS in last 7 home games vs teams with winning road records; OVER 10-2 in last 12 vs teams with winning road records.

Head-to-head: Mavericks 1-6 ATS in last 7 meetings; Mavericks 1-5 ATS in last 6 meetings in San Antonio; UNDER 5-1 in last 6 meetings in San Antonio.

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