Miami at Charlotte
Time: 6 PM CST (NBA LP)
Spread: CHA -3.5
Total: 215.5
Odds c/o 5dimes
There is just one-half game separating No. 8 Charlotte from Orlando, and it is tied with Miami, and its opponent tonight is crucial for playoff seedings/implications. The Hornets are 3.5-point favorites at home where it has fared 20-13 on the season.
The Heat is 14-18 on the road this year, and Miami has won its last two games SU entering tonight. The over/under is set at 215.5 points, a reflection of Miami’s tough defense which ranks No. 1 in the Eastern Conference in points allowed (106.6).
CHA
The Hornets have elevated Kemba Walker to the role and purpose of a superstar, but the team seems to have stalled and there are few reasons to expect Charlotte to be radically better moving forward than it has been for the duration of the season. The Hornets have dropped seven of its last 10, and at five games under .500 it would not even be considering postseason aspirations if in the West (never mind that Charlotte is just 7-16 against Western Conference teams).
Walker does now have the look and feel of a franchise player, but with Charlotte lacking secondary options, it stands to reason that it could be something of a mirage. Walker has averaged 25.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.8 assists while playing just under 35 minutes a night this season. His PER (average in the league is 15) is 21.13, which highlights some inefficiencies given that he has full reigns and a green light: Walker is shooting 43 percent from the field and he turns it over 2.6 times per game.
Fortunately, Charlotte takes good care of the ball as a team, averaging just 12.1 turnovers per game. Jeremy Lamb is the No. 2 scorer at just 15.3 points per game, and after the ho-hum production of Marvin Williams (10.4 points per game) and Cody Zeller (10.2), the Hornets lack scoring options in a major way.
Small forward Nicolas Batum has about fallen off the face of the earth, once a model of efficiency and intangibles. Batum is playing 32 minutes a night but averaging under 10 points per game. He shoots well (46 percent FG; 40 percent threes), but is attempting just 7.7 field goals per game and his assist production has fallen to 3.4 per night as well.
Perhaps the biggest source of potential improvement lies in 2017 lottery pick Malik Monk, who was billed as a tremendous source of shooting and scoring but is averaging under 10 points per game this season in just 17 minutes per game. The Hornets are still a team now centered around Walker, but while Walker is an All-star and premier talent, he is not good enough to transform an entire team and offense. The Hornets average 111.2 points per game, which is solid, but when it comes to stopping this team in crunch time opponents need not to worry much about Walker’s lackluster supporting cast.
MIA
The Miami Heat possess the stingiest and toughest defense in the Eastern Conference, but overwhelming success has still eluded Erik Spoelstra’s team. The Heat are gaining momentum as winners of three of its last four, and Spoelstra said that Dwyane Wade will see big-time minutes as Miami makes its playoff push.
Wade still has plenty left in the tank, in this his final season. He has come off the bench in all 53 of his appearances this year, but he has adapted to that role to provide a major spark for the Heat’s second unit. Wade is averaging 12.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game in just 25 minutes a night. The Heat, still, as a team have its struggles offensively. Miami averages just 106 points per game, and it has a negative point differential despite having a top defense. Josh Richardson is the No. 1 scorer but hardly has the experience or killer instinct to put teams away: That is where Wade steps in. D-Wade will certainly see minutes in crunch time, and he is a true clutch performer.
Perhaps the biggest thing for the Heat moving forward will be getting out from under the contract of Hassan Whiteside so it can pass the 5-spot’s minutes off to Bam Adebayo. Adebayo has shown plenty of signs, but he also only plays 22 minutes a game and has started in just 10 games this season due to Whiteside. Whiteside averages 12 points and 12 rebounds per game, but Adebayo is lither, a better ball handler, younger, and probably has a higher upside. Whiteside has long been criticized of playing for stats (particularly blocks) and little of that selfishness is to be seen in Bam. Adebayo is averaging eight points and 6.7 rebounds per game, but his 55.8 percent field goal percentage bodes well for the time when he eventually (next season?) assumes a much larger role in Miami’s rotation.
