Portland at Oklahoma City
Time: 7 PM CT (NBA TV)
Spread: OKC -6.5
Total: 223.5
Betting odds c/o 5dimes
The Oklahoma City Thunder have lost three-straight games and have gone 5-5 over its past 10 SU. OKC is 23-8 at Chesapeake Energy Arena, though, and the Thunder are 6.5 point favorites over the visiting Portland Trail Blazers, who boast a 16-13 mark on the road in the 2016-17 season.
The over/under is set high at 223.5 points, as the Thunder score 106.1 points per night, and Portland surrenders 110.2 points per game this season. Portland’s woeful defense combined with Russell Westbrook and the Thunder’s high-octane offense could result in a lot of Thunder buckets. Even so, Portland should keep it close at home.
The Trail Blazers have won their past two contests after coming off a streak that saw them lose five of the previous six games. Last night’s contest against the Minnesota Timberwolves was postponed due to moisture on the court, and that makes this second half of a back to back, not so. Portland will be fresh and most recently defeated Brooklyn and Oklahoma City in Portland, the game before that. In that meeting, the Blazers won 114-109 as Damian Lillard scored 33 points on 11 of 23 shooting and Portland outpaced the Blazers 33-24 over the game’s final quarter.
Portland shot nearly 50 percent from the floor in the game and hit 10 of 25 from three-point range while holding a +5 advantage on the boards. Russell Westbrook went nuts for 45 points, but he did not get a lot of help from his teammates and shot just 12 of 36 in his own right. The Thunder are a very beatable team when Westbrook is left on an island—and though Enes Kanter had a big game off the bench with 18 points in 28 minutes, the Thunder still need a legitimate second scoringng option. Victor Oladipo has been battling a back injury and has missed the Thunder’s last six games.
Victor Oladipo has been battling a back injury and has missed the Thunder’s last six games.
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Prior to going down, Oladipo was averaging 16.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game while posting a PER of 14.1. It is hardly the production OKC envisioned in signing him to a lucrative extension, but there remains hope that Oladipo can arrive to be the player Westbrook needs alongside him in the backcourt. The defensive and disruptive potential of the pairing alone solicits a lot of excitement, but it has yet to gel and work on a real level, and Oladipo has missed 25 games this season already. Steven Adams has been worth the contract extension, but the Thunder are going to need some offensive production out of Adams, newly acquired Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott, because Domantas Sabonis’ play had been lacking at the 4-spot.
Steady though he is, Sabonis has been largely unspectacular, and the Thunder felt that adding Gibson’s veteran leadership and toughness would angle it well towards the postseason. Andre Roberson is still a pitiful shooter, however, and the Thunder really do not benefit world’s better when Jerami Grant is in the rotation. Anthony Morrow, once known as a three-point marksman, is shooting just 29.4 percent from behind the arc. OKC shoots 26 threes a game, but the Thunder connect on just 8.4 per game while shooting 32.3 percent a team. Westbrook is particularly bad, shooting 33.7 percent on 6.8 attempts per game. While the Thunder’s ability to put up points is not in question, its efficiency is, as is the scoring of its frontcourt.
Perhaps it is to be expected that a team sitting in the No. 6 spot in the West have some glaring holes, but the Thunder have some areas that could easily be remedied to give Westbrook and company its best chance in the postseason. Kanter leads the team in points per possession at 1.409 and shoots 55 percent from the field, but he attempts just 10.2 field goals per game. Perhaps the change OKC needs is to either start Kanter at the 4-spot or just start him at center and demote Adams to the bench, but whether OKC could withstand that defensive subtraction over large tracts of game is far more dubious.
Portland is a team in something of a strange transition after dealing its starting center Mason Plumlee for Josef Nurkic and a first round pick. At first, the move seemed to signal some type of effort to build further rather than attempt to make the postseason, but Nurkic has been up to the challenge of starting at center, and Portland has hardly missed a tick despite a major roster-altering move. Of course, some will argue that moving away from Plumlee only makes this team better by shifting the usage even more heavily to its dominant backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McColllum.
Whatever the case, the Blazers have won two straight over the Brooklyn Nets and tonight’s opponent. The team is still nine games below .500, but the No. 8 spot in the West really remains wide-open. It could be Denver, Portland, New Orleans or even Sacramento that takes the stage against the top-seeded (likely) Golden State Warriors. Nurkic has averaged 14.5 points and eight rebounds per game in 30 minutes a night, starting five of his six games as a Blazer.
Speculation that backup center Meyers Leonard would see a greatly increased role have died to a murmur and the Blazers still have been without second unit playmaker Evan Turner. With Turner out until at least March 15 (hand injury), both Maurice Harkless and Allen Crabbe have had their roles increase and Al-Farouq Aminu is looking more for his offense, too. The Blazers have the complementary depth around Lillard and McCollum, it is just that most of the talents have their own respective glass ceilings, as do the Blazers. It is tough to see Portland doing much more than getting swept in any first round matchup with the vaunted Warriors.
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