Well, last time on Wednesday I had a decent night hitting 7 of 12 to redeem myself after the horrendous night the time before. There’s a big schedule on tap tonight, so I went big, and made 18 player prop predictions for tonight, 11 ‘overs’ and 7 ‘unders.’
Andrew Bogut over/under 11.5 rebs vs TOR
OVER. He’s averaging 16 rebound per for his last two games and Toronto’s rebounding is among the worst in the league. Bargnani won’t box Bogut out and it will leave him to collect offensive rebounds and he’ll get the defensive ones, too, as Bargnani camps out at the three point line on offense.
Andrea Bargnani over/under 27 pts+rebs vs MIL
OVER. Bargnani only had 22 pts+rebs last game, but in the two games prior he averaged 33 pts+rebs and as I mentioned Bogut will camp out down low while Bargnani stretches the court and hits a lot of threes. The matchup really is favorable for both parties as their conflicting styles will suit themselves nicely on the offensive end, at least.
DeMar DeRozan over/under 19 pts vs MIL
OVER. He’s averaging TWENTY EIGHT points per game over his last three contests and has scored 23 or more in 5 of his last 6. Yeah, we’re gonna go over on this one for sure.
Amar’e Stoudemire over/under 26 pts vs ATL
UNDER. I’m going with the under for three reasons on this one: first, he played last night in a thrilling win over Miami so he’s bound to be a little tired; second, he only scored 24 last time against Horford’s interior defense; and lastly, he has been under 26 points for 5 of his last 6 games now.
Joe Johnson over/under 23.5 pts vs NY
UNDER. Landry Fields held Joe Johnson to 7 points last time these teams met! Fields is proving himself as one of the tougher wing defenders and he’ll get physical with Johnson, allowing him to wear the Hawks guard down. I doubt Joe Johnson scores more than 15 tonight, much less 23.5
JR Smith over/under 11.5 pts vs CLE
UNDER. Smith has averaged 5.1 points a game for his last 6 games and has not played more than 22 minutes in any of them. He only played 14 minutes vs the Lakers and he had 8 points last game against the Pistons. Last game against the Cavs he did score 13, but he’s been in a bit of a funk and being in the coach’s doghouse (which he is more often than not it seems) doesn’t help either.
Ramon Sessions over/under 14 pts vs DEN
OVER. Sessions has had 14 or more points in 6 of his last 7 games and Denver isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut. He’s been getting big minutes, too, with the exception of the New Jersey game when he only played 11. For the other 6 games he has played 30 minutes or more and that’s more than ample time for Sessions to do his thing and get at least 14 points.
Ben Wallace over/under 9 pts+rebs vs MIA
OVER. Wallace hasn’t scored in his last three games, but he is averaging 9.3 rebounds over those games and with Miami coming off the second night of a back to back, tired legs may make the difference in Wallace getting a few extra rebounds and who knows, maybe he can find a way to score two points.
LeBron James over/under 28.5 pts vs DET
UNDER. Tayshaun Prince is one of the best wing defenders in the league, possibly ever, and held James to just 18 points last meeting between the teams. As mentioned already, Miami played last night, and if they come out sluggish, they may rest their starters since this game is not of high importance to them.
Dwight Howard over/under 35.5 pts+rebs vs CHI
OVER. If Joakim Noah were playing this game, it might be a different story, but how the heck is the ancient Kurt Thomas going to keep pace with Howard’s beastly atheleticism? I think Dwight has a 20-20 game tonight. It has all the makings of one.
Hedo Turkoglu over/under 17.5 pts+asts vs CHI
OVER. Hedo’s been pretty inconsistent lately, but my thought is this: he has a knack for showing up for the big games and playing up to the level of his competition and the Magic are going to need him to have a big game. He either fulfills this line or goes way under, based on his recent trends, and we’re going to go with the over on this one.
John Wall over/under 16.5 pts vs OKC
UNDER. Wall has been under 16.5 for 5 of his last 6 games and will have the fun assignment of guarding Mr. Russell Westbrook tonight, which should tire him out plenty so that he lacks the energy and focus to have a big night offensively.
Kevin Love over/under 38.5 pts+rebs vs UTA
UNDER. Utah is the best rebounding team in the league, taking away part of his bread and butter on this line. Moreover, he’ll be going against two great interior players in Millsap and Al Jefferson who should be able to limit his interior scoring. He might step out and knock down a few threes (he shoots 43% from behind the arc), but I see Love falling slightly under on this one.
Andrei Kirilenko over/under 12 pts vs MIN
OVER. He had 16 last time the teams met and he played 37 minutes last game, which could be an indicator that Sloan is going to play him more. This one is a bit dicey compared to the rest, but I am fairly confident we can go with an over on this one.
D.J. Augustin over/under 24.5 pts+asts vs GSW
OVER. I don’t even need to bolster this one with statistics. Augustin is having a pretty nice year and every one has big games against the Warriors. His season averages put him below this line, but tonight is a fine night for Augustin to have a monster game.
DeMarcus Cousins over/under 22 pts+rebs vs LAL
UNDER. Last time he played the Lakers, we went ‘under’ and won. He’s just too inexperienced to handle the pressure of playing against the Lakers’ trees down low and I just don’t see him having much of a game. Moreover, if the Lakers can run away with this one early, Cousins might get some rest.
Ray Allen over/under 19 pts vs PHX
OVER. Vince Carter is absolutely horrible at chasing players around screens and that is what Allen does best offensively. Allen should run circles around Vince, tire him out, then go for the kill strike.
Rajon Rondo over/under 25 pts+asts vs PHX
OVER. Rondo averaged 29 pts+asts in his last four meetings against the Suns, and while Nash is still a vet savvy defender, he just doesn’t have the footspeed to keep Rondo from getting into the paint and continuing to put up huge numbers against the Suns.