NBA Playoffs: Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks Game #3

2013 NBA Playoffs – Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game #3
#3 Indiana Pacers at #6 Atlanta Hawks
Pacers lead Best of Seven Series 2-0
Saturday, April 27, 2013, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Philips Arena – Atlanta, Georgia
Opening Line: Atlanta -2
Current Line: Atlanta -2
Opening Total: 189
Current Total: 190
Opening Money Line: Hawks -145 / Pacers +125
Current Money Line: Hawks -130 / Pacers +110

The Hawks are 2 point favorites at home in a must win game #3 against the Pacers.
The Hawks are 2 point favorites at home in a must win game #3 against the Pacers.

After cruising to two easy wins at home, The #3 seed Indiana Hoosiers look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead as they travel to the #6 Atlanta Hawks. However, the home team has won all six games between the teams this season. The Pacers have also lost 11 straight games in Atlanta. It might not matter were they play though as Atlanta has had no answer for the size and physicality of the Pacers so far. The Pacers won game one in Indianapolis 107-90 and game two 113-98. 

Indiana is coached by Frank Vogel. The Pacers are 44-39 ATS and the total is 40-42-1 this season. The Pacers are outscoring teams 95-91 this season. Indiana is second in the league in points allowed and #23 in scoring. The Pacers are shooting 43.6% from the field and 34.7% from 3 point range. Indiana is 22nd or worse in both categories. The Pacers make 74.6% of their free throws. Indiana leads the league in rebounding at 45.8 per game, and are #8 in rebounds allowed at 40.9. Indiana opponents are shooting 42% from the field and 32.7% from 3 point range. The Pacers lead the league in both categories. Indiana averages 20.3 assists, 7.2 steals, 6.3 blocks, and 14.5 turnovers.

Small forward Paul George averages 17.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. Power forward David West averages 17.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block a game. Point guard George Hill averages 14.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. He is probable with an arm injury. Center Roy Hibbert averages 11.9 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game. Shooting guard Lance Stephenson averages 8.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1 steal a game. He is probable with a hip injury. Tyler Hansbrough, Gerald Green, Ian Mahinmi, and D.J. Augustin make up the rest of the rotation. Indiana has had success despite All-Star forward Danny Granger missing all but 5 games with a knee injury.

Atlanta is coached by Larry Drew. The Hawks are 37-45-2 ATS and the total is 44-39-1. Atlanta is outscoring teams 98-97.5 this season. The Hawks are shooting 46.4% from the field and 37.1% from 3 point range. Atlanta is #7 in both categories. The Hawks are #26 in free throw shooting at 71.5% from the line. Atlanta averages 40.9 rebounds per game and gives up 43.7 per game. The Hawks are 23rd or worse in both categories. Atlanta opponents are shooting 45% from the field and 37.9% from 3 point range. The Hawks are #28 in 3 point defense. Atlanta averages 24.5 assists, 8.1 steals, 4.5 blocks, and 14.3 turnovers per game.

Small forward Josh Smith averages 17.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game. He is probable with an ankle injury. Center Al Horford averages 17.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. He is also probable with a shoulder injury.  Point guard Jeff Teague averages 14.6 points, 2.3 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Guard Louis Williams is out for the season with a knee injury after averaging 14 points in 39 games.  Guard Kyle Korver averages 10.9 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists per game. Point guard Devin Harris averages 9.9 points, 3 assists, 2 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game. Ivan Johnson, John Jenkins, DeShawn Stevenson, and  Anthony Tolliver all get significant minutes as well. Center Zaza Pachulia is out for the season with a torn Achilles’ tendon. The Hawks have really missed his presence down low especially on defense against the Pacers.

Indiana is 5-1 ATS in Conference quarterfinal games, 7-3 against Southeast Division teams, 8-17 against teams with winning home records, 4-9 against teams with winning records, 2-6 overall, 2-7 against Eastern Conference teams, and 0-4 in Saturday games. The last 5 games in this series have gone over the total.

Atlanta is 2-5 ATS after a straight up loss, 2-6 in Saturday games, 1-10 against eastern Conference teams and on 2 days rest, 1-5 against teams with winning records, 1-4 in conference quarterfinals games, 1-4 after the opponent scores 100 points or more, and after a straight up loss of 10 points or more, 0-7 at home, and against teams with losing road records, 0-5 overall, 0-4 after allowing 100 points or more, after failing to cover, and against Central Division teams. The favorite is 21-6 ATS and the home team is 19-7 ATS recently in this series. The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 trips to Atlanta.

Although Indiana has struggled at Philips Arena, they are just playing much better than Atlanta right now. With the Miami Heat and New York Knicks expected to sweep their playoff foes Sunday, the Pacers must take care of business on the road. I do think Indiana wins but Atlanta keeps it close.

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