NBA Playoffs Handicapping Selections Game Two: #6 Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers
2014 NBA Playoffs
Western Conference Quarterfinals Game #2
#6 Golden State Warriors at #3 Los Angeles Clippers
Warriors Lead Best of Seven Series 1-0
Staples Center – Los Angeles, California
Monday, April 21, 2014, 10:35 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
Opening Line: Los Angeles -7
Current Line: Los Angeles -8
Opening Total: 211
Current Total: 212
Opening Money Line: Clippers -410 / Warriors +330
Opening Money Line: Clippers -415 / Warriors +345
The Golden State Warriors upset the Los Angeles Clipeprs Saturday afternoon in game #1 of the Western Conference quarterfinals. Having taken home court advantage, the Warriors look to take a 2-0 series lead in game two Monday night in LA. Games three and four will be in Oakland starting Thursday night. The Clippers need a win to even the series.
The 57-25 Clippers won the Pacific Division for the second straight year. The Clippers finished 5 games ahead of 51-31 Warriors in the Division. During the regular season each team won twice at home against the other.
However in Saturday’s game one, it would be a different story. The Clippers quickly jumped out to an 11 point lead in the first quarter. The Warriors fought their way back into the game and the two teams went into the locker room at halftime tied at 52. Golden State would close the third quarter on a 14-6 run to take an 87-79 into the fourth. The Warriors would expand the lead to 11 points before the Clippers fought back to take a 103-102 with around 3 minutes to go in the game. However, missed free throws and sloppy turnovers by both teams would be the difference as Golden State would take the 109-105 win.
Stars on both sides were in foul trouble throughout the game. Clippers forward Blake Griffin only played 19 minutes before fouling out late in the fourth. He scored only 6 points, with 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and a block. Guard Chris Paul scored 28 points, along with 8 assists, 7 rebounds and 4 steals despite foul trouble of his own. However, he had six turnovers and also missed two late free throws that would have pulled LA to within one. Warriors guard Klay Thompson led the Warriors with 22 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists. Forward David Lee scored 20 points with 13 rebounds and 3 assists.
Golden State is coached by Mark Jackson. The Warriors won 3 of their last 4 games to close out the regular season, including two straight. The Warriors are 42-38-3 ATS this season and the total is 34-47-2 this season.
Golden State is outscoring teams 104-100 this season. The Warriors are #10 in scoring and #10 in points allowed. Golden State is shooting 46.2% from the field and 38% from 3 point range. The Warriors are #9 in field goal percentage and #4 in three point shooting. Golden State makes 75.3% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 43.6% from the field and 34.4% from 3 point range. The Warriors are #4 in field goal defense and #3 in three point defense. Golden State averages 45.3 rebounds per game and opponents average 43.3 per game. The Warriors are #5 in rebounding and #20 in rebounds allowed. Golden State averages 23.2 assists, 15.2 turnovers, 7.7 steals and 5.1 blocks per game. Opponents average 20.2 assists, 14.9 turnovers, 8 steals and 4.2 blocks per game.
Guard Stephen Curry averages 24 points, 8.5 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game. Guard Klay Thompson averages 18.4 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. Forward David Lee averages 18.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. Lee played in the last 3 games of the season after missing the previous 7 games with a hamstring injury. Forward Harrison Barnes averages 9.5 points, 4 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. Forward Andre Iguodala averages 9.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Jermaine O’Neal, Jordan Crawford, Andrew Bogut, Marresse Speights and Draymond Green will also get some minutes. Bogut leads the team in rebounds at 10 per game and blocks at 1.8 per game. Bogut is out for this series with a rib injury. O’Neal will replace him in the starting line-up. Center Festus Ezeli is out indefinitely with a knee injury and has missed the entire season. Guard Nemanja Nedovic is out indefinitely with a calf injury.
Los Angeles is coached by Doc Rivers. The Clippers went 7-3 to close out the regular season. The Clippers are 46-36-1 ATS this season and the total is 45-37-1 this season.
LA is outscoring teams 108-101. The Clippers lead the league in scoring and are #14 in points allowed. Los Angeles is shooting 47.4% from the field and 35.2% from 3 point range. The Clippers are #3 in field goal percentage and #22 in three point shooting. LA is #26 in free throw shooting at 73% from the field. Opponents are shooting 44.1% from the field and 33.2% from 3 point range. The Clippers lead the league in 3 point defense and are #5 in opponents’ field goal percentage. Los Angeles averages 43 rebounds per game and opponents average 43.7 per game. LA is #25 in rebounds allowed. The Clippers average 24.6 assists, 13.9 turnovers, 8.6 steals and 4.9 blocks per game. Opponents average 23.3 assists, 15.4 turnovers, 7 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.
Griffin averages 24.1 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Paul averages 19.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, 10.7 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. Paul leads the league in assists and steals. Guard Jamal Crawford averages 18.6 points, 2.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. He missed 5 games with an Achilles’ injury down the stretch but will play in this series. Redick averages 15.2 points, 2.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. Guard Darren Collison averages 11.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Center DeAndre Jordan averages 10.4 points, 13.6 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game. Jordan leads the league in rebounding and is third in blocks per game. Forward Matt Barnes averages 9.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. Danny Granger, Jared Dudley, and Willie Green will also get significant minutes. Granger played Saturday for the first time since injuring his hamstring March 27.
Golden State is 11-0 ATS in conference quarterfinal games, 5-0 when the opponent scores 100 points or more in the previous game, overall, against Western Conference teams, on one day rest, 4-0 after a cover, in road games, after allowing 100 points or more, after the opponent allows 100 points or more in the previous game, and after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game, 5-1 against teams with winning records, 4-1 after a straight up win, and against teams with winning home records, and 19-6-1 in Monday games. The over is 8-2 in this series recently including 5-1 at Staples Center.
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS against Pacific Division teams, 14-5 after a straight up loss, 10-4-1 on one day rest, 2-5 against teams with winning road records, 1-4 when the opponent scores 100 points or more in the previous game, 0-6 in conference quarterfinal games, and 0-4 against teams with winning records. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games in this series.
The Clippers face a virtual must win tonight because they don’t want to head north to Oakland down 2-0 with the crazy Warriors fans. Griffin was a non-factor in game one, something that can’t happen if the Clippers want to make a deep run in the playoffs. Earlier in the week Thompson accused Griffin of flopping too much. The referees were listening and called game one really tight. Griffin was frustrated to be in foul trouble for much of the game. I think the Clippers bounce back to even the series tonight.