NBA Playoffs Game Six Betting Preview: #1 San Antonio Spurs at #8 Dallas Mavericks

2014 NBA Playoffs
Western Conference Quarterfinals – Game #6

#1 San Antonio Spurs at #8 Dallas Mavericks 
Spurs Lead Best of Seven Series 3-2
American Airlines Center – Dallas, Texas
Friday, May 2, 2014, 8:05 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: San Antonio -3
Current Line: San Antonio -3
Opening Total: 199
Current Total: 197 1/2
Opening Money Line: Spurs -155 / Mavericks +135
Current Money Line: Spurs -155 / Mavericks +135

Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks look to avoid elimination against the Spurs in game six of the Western Conference first round series Friday night in Dallas.

Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks look to avoid elimination against the Spurs in game six of the Western Conference first round series Friday night in Dallas.

Three of the eight NBA first round playoff series will have a game seven Saturday, the first time in league history that there will three game sevens on the same day. With three game sixes on Friday, there exists the possibility of six series going the distance. The #1 San Antonio Spurs look to close out the #8 Dallas Mavericks Friday night in Dallas. The Mavericks can force a seventh game Sunday in San Antonio with a win.

The Spurs won game one 90-85 in San Antonio. Dallas took game two 113-92 to snap a ten game losing streak to San Antonio. The Mavericks would win game three 109-108 on a Vince Carter buzzer beating three pointer. The Spurs faced a virtual must win in game four. The Spurs would hold on for a 93-89 victory to even the series at two games apiece. San Antonio took control of the series with a 109-103 win Wednesday night in game five in San Antonio.

The Spurs would never trail in game five. San Antonio opened the game on a 24-11 run, but the Mavericks would only trail 27-26 by the end of the quarter. The Spurs would take a 58-49 lead into halftime. In the fourth Dallas pulled to within 98-94 with 3 minutes left. However, they would get no closer, and the Spurs held on for the six point win.

Tony Parker led the Spurs in scoring with 23 points and 5 assists. He did this despite nursing a sore ankle that he twisted in game four Monday night, and going without sleep because his fiancee gave birth to his first child early Wednesday morning. Manu Ginobli had 19 points with 5 assists, 4 rebounds and 3 steals. Tim Duncan had 16 points, 12 rebounds and 3 blocks. Center Tiago Splitter had 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assists. Vince Carter scored 28 points off the bench to lead the Mavericks. Dirk Nowitzki scored 26 points and also had 15 rebounds, the first time he has scored over 20 points in the series so far.  Monta Ellis had 21 points and 6 assists.

San Antonio is coached by Gregg Popovich, who won his third NBA coach of the year award last week. San Antonio is 45-42 ATS and the total is 47-39-1 this season.

San Antonio is outscoring teams 105-97. The Spurs are #6 in scoring and #6 in points allowed. San Antonio is shooting 48.6% from the field and 39.7% from 3 point range. The Spurs are #2 in field goal percentage and #1 in 3 point shooting. San Antonio is #4 in free throw shooting at 78.5% from the line. Opponents are shooting 44.4% from the field and 35.3% from 3 point range. The Spurs are in the top 10 in both categories. San Antonio is averaging 43.3 rebounds per game and opponents average 42.2 per game. The Spurs average 25.2 assists, 14.6 turnovers, 7.5 steals and 5.2 blocks per game. Opponents average 20.3 assists, 14 turnovers, 7.8 steals and 4.7 blocks per game.

Point guard Tony Parker averages 16.7 points, 5.7 assists, and 2.3 rebounds per game. Parker is probable with the ankle injury. Forward Tim Duncan averages 15.1 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.9 blocks per game. Forward Kawhi Leonard averages 12.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Guard Manu Ginobli averages 12.3 points, 3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1 steal per game. Guard Marco Belinelli averages 11.4 assists, 2.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. Guard Patty Mills averages 10.2 points, 2.1 rebounds and 1.8 assists. Boris Diaw, Danny Green, Tiago Splitter, Cory Joseph, Jeff Ayres, and Matt Bonner will also get significant minutes.

Dallas is coached by Rick Carlisle. The Mavericks are 49-38 ATS and the total is  48-39 this season. Dallas has covered all five games in the series so far.

Dallas is outscoring teams 105-102 this season. The Mavericks are #8 in scoring and #20 in points allowed. Dallas is shooting 47.4% from the field and 38.4% from 3 point range. The Mavericks are #4 in field goal shooting and #2 in 3 point shooting. Dallas is #3 in free throw shooting at 79.5% from the line. Opponents are shooting 46.4% from the field and 35.9% from 3 point range. Dallas averages 40.9 rebounds per game and opponents average 42.8 per game. The Mavericks are #26 in rebounds. Dallas averages 23.6 assists, 13.5 turnovers, 8.6 steals and 4.4 blocks per game. Opponents average 22 assists, 16 turnovers, 7.8 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.

Forward Dirk Nowitzki averages 21.7 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. The first-ballot Hall-of-Famer passed  Oscar Robertson to become the 10th leading scorer in NBA history recently. Guard Monta Ellis averages 19 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Guard Vince Carter averages 11.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. Guard Jose Calderon averages 11.4 points, 2.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. Forward Shawn Marion averages 10.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Brandan Wright, Devin Harris, Samuel Dalembert, DeJuan Blair and Jae Crowder will also get significant minutes. Blair returns for game six after being suspended for game five.

San Antonio is 5-0 ATS in Friday games, 1-4 on one day rest, 1-5 after a straight up win, in road games, against teams with winning home records, and after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game, 0-7 overall and against Western Conference teams, 0-6 after failing to cover, against teams with winning records, and against Southwest Division teams, 0-5 after allowing 100 points or more in the previous game, after the opponent scores 100 points or more in the previous game, after the opponent scores 100 points or more in the previous game, and in first round playoff games. The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games in this series. The Spurs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Dallas.

Dallas is 6-0 ATS against teams with winning records, overall, and against Western Conference teams, 5-0 after a cover, 4-0 after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game, 6-1 after the opponent scores 100 points or more in the previous game, 4-1 after allowing 100 points or more in the previous game, 19-6-2 in first round playoff games, 42-14 after a straight up loss, 19-7 against Southwest Division teams, 7-3 in Friday games and after the opponent scores over 100 points in the previous game, and 2-5 at home. The over is 5-2 overall in this series recently and 4-1 in Dallas. The underdog ahs covered the last 7 games in this series.

Dallas had lost to San Antonio 9 straight times before this series. The Mavericks did win twice in this series. I think San Antonio wants no part of a game seven. I like the Spurs to close out the series tonight but Dallas keeps it close.

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