NBA Playoffs Game Five Betting Picks: #8 Dallas Mavericks at #1 San Antonio Spurs

2014 NBA Playoffs
Western Conference Quarterfinals – Game #5

#8 Dallas Mavericks at #1 San Antonio Spurs
Best of Seven Series Tied 2-2
AT&T Center – San Antonio, Texas
Wednesday, April 30, 2014, 7:05 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
Opening Line: San Antonio -7
Current Line: San Antonio -6 1/2
Opening Total: 198 1/2
Current Total: 198
Opening Money Line: Spurs -275 / Mavericks +227
Current Money Line: Spurs -300 / Mavericks +250

The Spurs and mavericks are tied at 2-2 in the Western Conference first round series. Game five is Wednesday night in San Antonio.

The Spurs and mavericks are tied at 2-2 in the Western Conference first round series. Game five is Wednesday night in San Antonio.

After two tight games in Dallas that went down to the wire, the Western Conference quarterfinal series between the #1 San Antonio Spurs and #8 Dallas Mavericks is now a best of three series. The Spurs won game one 90-85 in San Antonio. Dallas took game two 113-92 to snap a ten game losing streak to San Antonio. The Mavericks would win game three 109-108 on a Vince Carter buzzer beating three pointer. The Spurs faced a virtual must win in game four Monday night. The Spurs would hold on for a 93-89 victory to even the series at two games apiece. Now the series returns to the Alamo City for game five Wednesday night.

In game four, San Antonio took a 20 point lead in the third quarter and looked like they were going to cruise to victory. However, the Mavericks fought back to take an 83-82 lead late in the fourth. Then Dallas center DeJuan Blair  was ejected for kicking Spurs’ center Tiago Splitter in the head when both were on the ground. Manu Ginobli made the technical free throw and Splitter made both free throws on the flagrant foul to give San Antonio an 85-83 lead. Spurs’ forward Boris Diaw hit a three pointer with 32 seconds left to give San Antonio a 90-87 lead. Dallas forward Dirk Nowitzki hit a putback after guard Monta Ellis missed a three with 19 seconds left to make it 90-89. The Mavericks took almost 10 seconds to foul Ginobli, who would make one of two free throws to make it 91-89. Ellis missed a driving layup that would have tied the game. Ginobli made two free throws to ice the game 93-89.

Ginobli led the Spurs with 23 points. 5 assists and 3 rebounds. Diaw had 17 points with 4 rebounds and 4 assists. The Spurs had 50 bench points Monday. Tim Duncan scored 14 points and also had 111 rebounds. Splitter had 10 points and 12 rebounds. Ellis led the Mavericks with 20 points but he only shot 6 for 20 from the field. Nowitzki scored 19 points and added 7 rebounds. He has been held under 20 points in each of the four games. Blair had 12 points and 11 rebounds before the ejection. Blair is suspended for game five Wednesday.

Dallas is coached by Rick Carlisle. The Mavericks are 48-38 ATS and the total is  47-39 this season.

Dallas is outscoring teams 105-102 this season. The Mavericks are #8 in scoring and #20 in points allowed. Dallas is shooting 47.4% from the field and 38.4% from 3 point range. The Mavericks are #4 in field goal shooting and #2 in 3 point shooting. Dallas is #3 in free throw shooting at 79.5% from the line. Opponents are shooting 46.4% from the field and 35.9% from 3 point range. Dallas averages 40.9 rebounds per game and opponents average 42.8 per game. The Mavericks are #26 in rebounds. Dallas averages 23.6 assists, 13.5 turnovers, 8.6 steals and 4.4 blocks per game. Opponents average 22 assists, 16 turnovers, 7.8 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.

Forward Dirk Nowitzki averages 21.7 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. The first-ballot Hall-of-Famer passed  Oscar Robertson to become the 10th leading scorer in NBA history recently. Guard Monta Ellis averages 19 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Guard Vince Carter averages 11.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. Guard Jose Calderon averages 11.4 points, 2.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. Forward Shawn Marion averages 10.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Brandan Wright, Devin Harris, Samuel Dalembert, DeJuan Blair and Jae Crowder will also get significant minutes.

San Antonio is coached by Gregg Popovich, who won his third NBA coach of the year award last week. San Antonio is 45-41 ATS and the total is 46-39-1 this season.

San Antonio is outscoring teams 105-97. The Spurs are #6 in scoring and #6 in points allowed. San Antonio is shooting 48.6% from the field and 39.7% from 3 point range. The Spurs are #2 in field goal percentage and #1 in 3 point shooting. San Antonio is #4 in free throw shooting at 78.5% from the line. Opponents are shooting 44.4% from the field and 35.3% from 3 point range. The Spurs are in the top 10 in both categories. San Antonio is averaging 43.3 rebounds per game and opponents average 42.2 per game. The Spurs average 25.2 assists, 14.6 turnovers, 7.5 steals and 5.2 blocks per game. Opponents average 20.3 assists, 14 turnovers, 7.8 steals and 4.7 blocks per game.

Point guard Tony Parker averages 16.7 points, 5.7 assists, and 2.3 rebounds per game. Parker is questionable with an ankle injury. Forward Tim Duncan averages 15.1 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.9 blocks per game. Forward Kawhi Leonard averages 12.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Guard Manu Ginobli averages 12.3 points, 3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1 steal per game. Guard Marco Belinelli averages 11.4 assists, 2.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. Guard Patty Mills averages 10.2 points, 2.1 rebounds and 1.8 assists. Boris Diaw, Danny Green, Tiago Splitter, Cory Joseph, Jeff Ayres, and Matt Bonner will also get significant minutes.

Dallas is 4-0 ATS after a cover, 5-0 against teams with winning records, overall and against Western Conference teams, 18-6-2 in first round playoff games, 41-14 after a straight up loss, and against teams with winning home records, 49-19 in road games, 23-9 in Wednesday games, and 20-8 against Southwest Division teams. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games in this series. The underdog has covered the last 6 games in this series. The Mavericks have covered all four games in this series, and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to San Antonio.

San Antonio is 5-2 ATS against teams with winning road records, 1-4 after a straight up win, 0-6 overall and against Western Conference teams, 0-5 after failing to cover, against teams with winning records, and against Southwest Division teams, and 0-4 in first round playoff games. The under is 9-4 in the last 13 games in San Antonio in this series.

Parker is officially listed as a game time decision. San Antonio has rested their aging trio of stars enough in the last month or so. My point is they have won games without Duncan, Parker, or Ginobli, sometimes even when two or all three are out of the line-up. I think the Spurs will be fine, even if Parker can’t go. Patty Mills is a capable back-up. I like the Spurs to win at home in a close game to take control of the series.

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