NBA Playoffs Game Five Betting Picks: #6 Milwaukee Bucks at #3 Toronto Raptors

2017 NBA Playoffs
Eastern Conference First Round Game #5
#6 Milwaukee Bucks at #3 Toronto Raptors
Best of Seven Series Tied 2-2
Monday, April 24, 2017, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: NBA TV
Air Canada Centre – Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Opening Line: Toronto -6 1/2
Current Line: Toronto -6
Opening Total: 192 1/2
Current Total: 192
Opening Money Line: Raptors -245 / Bucks +205
Current Money Line: Raptors -245 / Bucks +205

Besides a close game in game two, every other game in the series between the Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks has been decided by at least 11 points. Each team has won a game both at home and on the road, so the series is tied 2-2 as they go back to Toronto for game five Monday night.

Toronto is coached by Dwane Casey. The Raptors were 51-31 in the regular season and are the #3 seed in the East. Toronto is 46-39-1 ATS and the total is 45-41 this season. Milwaukee is coached by Jason Kidd. The Bucks are the #6 seed and finished 42-40 in the regular season. Milwaukee is 39-47 ATS and the total is 43-41-2 this season.

Milwaukee won game one 97-83 in Toronto and game three at home 104-77. Toronto won game two at home 106-100 and game four Saturday 87-76 in Milwaukee. In game four, Milwaukee was a 2.5 point favorite and the total was 195. The teams were tied at 19 at the end of the first quarter and at 41 at halftime. The Raptors would lead 64-58 at the end of the third. Milwaukee never got closer than 5 points in the fourth, and the Raptors grabbed an 11 point win to make it a best of three series.

Toronto shot 33/80 from the field including 5/22 from three point range. The Raptors made 16 of 17 free throws. Toronto had 48 rebounds, 16 assists, 13 turnovers, 11 steals and 6 blocks per game. Toronto had 10 fast break points and 40 points in the paint. Milwaukee shot 30/81 from the field including 5/21 from three point range. The Bucks made 11/18 free throws. Milwaukee had 58 rebounds, 16 assists, 21 turnovers, 8 steals and 3 blocks. The Bucks had 13 fast break points and 36 points in the paint.

DeMar DeRozan had 33 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 steals for the Raptors. Kyle Lowry had 18 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists. Norman Powell and Jonas Valanciunas each had 12 points. Serge Ibaka had 10 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals and 3 blocks. Tony Snell had 19 points and 4 rebounds for the Bucks. Greg Monroe had 14 points and 9 rebounds. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 14 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks. Khris Middleton had 10 points, 11 rebounds and 3 assists.

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Milwaukee is being outscored 103.8-103.6 this season. The Bucks are #9 in points allowed and #20 in scoring. Milwaukee is shooting 47.4% from the field and 37% from 3 point range. The Bucks are #10 or better in both categories. Milwaukee makes 76.8% from the free throw line. Opponents are shooting 45.8% from the field and 35.4% from 3 point range. Milwaukee averages 40.4 rebounds per game and opponents average 42.5. The Bucks are #8 in rebounds allowed, but #29 in rebounding. Milwaukee averages 24.2 assists, 13.4 turnovers, 8.1 steals and 5.3 blocks per game.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, nicknamed the “Greek Freak” averages 22.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.9 blocks per game. He is the only player to be in the top 20 in the league in all statistical categories, and in a normal year would be an MVP candidate. He won’t even crack the top five though. Jabari Parker averaged 20.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game before a knee injury sidelined him for the season in February.  Khris Middleton averages 14.7 points, 4.2rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.4 blocks per game. Greg Monroe averages 11.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.4 steals per game. Malcolm Brogdon averages 10.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Michael Beasley averages 9.4 points and 3.4 rebounds per game. Tony Snell, Matthew Dellavedova, Mirza Teletovic, Spencer Hawes, and Jason Terry will also get some minutes in the rotation.

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Toronto is outscoring teams 107-103 this season. The Raptors are  in the top ten in both categories this season. Toronto is shooting 46.4% from the field and 36.3% from three point range. The Raptors make 79.6% of their free throws and are #8 in that category. Opponents are shooting 44.9% from the field and 35.4% from three point range. The Raptors are #6 in field goal defense. Toronto averages 43.3 rebounds per game and opponents average 42.1 per game. The Raptors are #6 in rebounds allowed. Toronto averages 18.5 assists, 11.8 turnovers, 8.3 steals and 4.9 blocks per game.

Guard DeMar DeRozan averages 27.3 points per game, 5.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Guard Kyle Lowry averages 22.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 7 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Forward Serge Ibaka, acquired in a midseason trade with the Orlando Magic, averages 14.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. Center Jonas Valanciunas averages 12 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Terrance Ross averages 10.4 points and 2.6 rebounds per game. DeMarre Carroll, Luis Scola, Cory Joseph, Norman Powell, Patrick Patterson, P.J. Tucker and Delon Wright will also get some minutes in the rotation.

Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS after a double digit loss, 5-1 in Monday games, 8-2 against Atlantic teams, 7-2 after a straight up loss, 5-2 in first round games, overall and against Eastern Conference teams, 7-3 in road games, and 4-9 on one day rest.

Toronto 8-22-1 ATS in first round games, 2-6 after a straight up win, 1-4 after a cover, 0-4 at home and against teams with losing road records. The favorite is 7-3 ATS in this series recently. The under is 5-1 in this series recently and 5-2 in Toronto between the teams.

I honestly don’t know which team will sow up for either side from game to game. I am leaning toward Toronto taking control of the series in a low scoring game, but Milwaukee has already proven they aren’t intimidated by Toronto.

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Posted by on Apr 23 2017. Filed under Uncategorized. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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