NBA Playoffs Game 6: San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors

2013 NBA Playoffs – Western Conference Semifinals Game #6
#2 San Antonio Spurs at #6 Golden State Warriors
Spurs Lead Best of Seven Series 3-2
Thursday, May 16, 2013, 10:35 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Oracle Arena – Oakland, California
Opening Line: San Antonio -2
Current Line: San Antonio -2
Opening Total: 196
Current Total: 194 1/2
Opening Money Line: Spurs -120 / Warriors +100
Current Money Line: Spurs -130 / Warriors +110

The San Antonio Spurs look to close out the pesky Warriors in game six Thursday night.
The San Antonio Spurs look to close out the pesky Warriors in game six Thursday night.

The San Antonio Spurs are one win away from  returning to the Western Conference Finals. However, it won’t be easy as they have to travel to the frenzied Oracle Arena in Oakland. The #6 seeded Golden State Warriors must win Thursday night to force a game seven Sunday in San Antonio. Otherwise the Spurs will take on the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals.

The two teams split the first 4 with each winning a game on the other’s home court. San Antonio escaped with a 129-127 overtime win in game one. Golden State would take home court advantage with their 100-91 game two win. The Spurs would regain the home court with a 102-92 victory in game three in Oakland. The Warriors would tie it up with a 97-87 game 4 win in overtime. However, the win was costly as Warriors’ guard Stephen Curry turned his ankle. He has had ankle problems his entire career. Curry played in game 5 but was ineffective as the Spurs routed the Warriors 109-91 to take a 3-2 series lead. 

The Spurs would jump out to a 37-28 first quarter lead. The Warriors would comeback to trail 54-51 at the half. The Spurs would expand the lead to 83-72 at the end of the third. Golden State would pull to within 8 points in the fourth quarter but a 12-2 run by the Spurs put the game away.

Tony Parker carved up the Warriors with 25 points and 10 assists. Forward Kawhi Leonard had 17 points and 7 rebounds. Tim Duncan had 14 points and 11 rebounds. Harrison Barnes led the Warriors with 25 points, and 7 rebounds. Guard Jarrett Jack scored 2 points off the bench. Forward Carl Landry had 16 points and 6 rebounds. Curry was held to 9  points on 4/14 shooting. He did have 8 assists, despite only playing 4 1/2 minutes in the fourth quarter when the game was already decided.

San Antonio is coached by Gregg Popovich. The Spurs are 45-44-2 ATS and the total is 40-49-2 this season. San Antonio is outscoring teams 103-96. The Spurs are #4 in scoring and #9 in points allowed. The Spurs are shooting 48.2% from the field and 37.6% from 3 point range. San Antonio is in the top 5 in the league in both categories. The Spurs are #3 in free throw shooting at 79% from the line. San Antonio averages 41.4 rebounds and give up 42.4 per game. Spurs’ opponents are shooting 44.1% from the field and 35% from 3 point range. San Antonio is in the top 10 in both categories. The Spurs average 25.1 assists, 8.5 steals, 5.5 blocks, and 14.1 turnovers.

In the playoffs, Parker is averaging 23.4 points, 6.1 assists, and 4.2 rebounds. Duncan is averaging 18.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. Leonard is averaging 13.4 points, and 8.2 rebounds. Manu Ginobli is averaging 12.9 points, 4 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game. Guard Danny Green is averaging 9.9 points and 4.1 rebounds per game. Gary Neal, Boris Diaw, Tiago Splitter, Matt Bonner, and Cory Joseph make up the rest of the rotation.

Golden State is coached by Mark Jackson The Warriors are outscoring teams 101-100 this season. Golden State is #7 in scoring but #19 in points allowed. The Warriors are shooting 45.8% from the field and 40.3% from 3 point range. Golden State is #11 in field goal percentage and lead the league in 3 point shooting. The Warriors are #4 in free throw shooting at 79% from from the line. Golden State is #3 in rebounding at 44.9 per game, but #20 in rebounds allowed at 42.7 per game. Warrior opponents are shooting 43.9% from the field and 34.7% from 3 point range. Golden State is in the top 7 in both categories. The Warriors average 22.5 assists, 6.9 steals, 4.2 blocks, and 14.8 turnovers. Golden State is 50-41-1 ATS and the total is 51-40-1 this season.

Curry is averaging 23.5 points per game in the playoffs, along with 8.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.7 steals. Curry will play with the ankle injury but we don’t know how effective he will be. Jack is averaging 17.4 points, 5 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game. Barnes is averaging 16.7 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. Guard Klay Thompson averages 15.6 points, and 5 rebounds  a game. Landry averages 11.9 points and 5.1 rebounds. Andrew Bogut, Draymond Green, David Lee, and Festus Ezili make up the rest of the rotation. Bogut si probable with an ankle injury. Lee is playing despite suffering a torn hip flexor early in the playoffs.

San Antonio is 5-13 ATS on one day rest, 3-10 after a straight up win, 3-11 after the opponent allows 100 points or more, 1-4 in Thursday games, 3-12 against teams with winning records, and 2-9 after scoring 100 points or more. The under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 games in this series in Oakland.

Golden State is 5-0 ATS after a straight up loss of 10 points or more, 6-1 after failing to cover, 5-1 at home, 10-2 against teams with winning records, 15-3 after the opponent scores 100 points or more,  14-3 after a straight up loss, 13-3 against Western Conference teams, 16-5 after allowing 100 points or more, 6-2 on one day rest, 19-7 overall, 5-2 against Southwest teams, and 4-9-1 in Thursday games. The Warriors are 3-1-1 ATS at home in the last 5 against the Spurs. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series.

The young Warriors have grown up in these playoffs led by breakout superstar Curry. However, I think the tank is almost empty, especially if Curry struggles again. The crowd will eb wild in Oakland but the veteran Spurs have played in front of hostile crowds many times before. I like the Spurs to close it out in a close game.

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