NBA Playoffs Betting: Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies Game #3

2013 NBA Playoffs – Western Conference Semifinals Game #3
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder at #5 Memphis Grizzlies
Best of Seven Series Tied 1-1
Saturday, May 11, 2013, 5:05 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
FedEx Forum – Memphis, Tennessee
Opening Line: Memphis -4 1/2
Current Line: Memphis -5
Opening Total: 189
Current Total: 186 1/2
Opening Money Line: Grizzlies -190 / Thunder +160
Current Money Line: Grizzlies -230 / Thunder +190

The Grizzlies and Thunder are tied at one game apiece in the Western Conference semifinals. The Grizzlies are 5 point favorites at home in game 3 Saturday.

The Grizzlies and Thunder are tied at one game apiece in the Western Conference semifinals. The Grizzlies are 5 point favorites at home in game 3 Saturday.

For the first time ever all four NBA conference semifinals series were  tied at 1-1 after two games. All four switch to the lower seeded teams for games 3 and 4. The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs have already regained homecourt advantage with tough road wins last nights. Now, the Oklahoma City Thunder and New York Knicks look to do the same.

The #1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder travel to the #5 seed Memphis Grizzlies Saturday afternoon. The Thunder escaped game #1 with a 93-91 win despite being down 9 at the end of the third. In game two, the Grizzlies wanted to earn at least at split before heading back to Memphis. The game was back and fourth in the first half, and the Grizzlies would take a 54-51 lead at the half. Oklahoma City would take a 5 point lead going into the fourth. Memphis would open the fourth on a 9-2 run with Kevin Durant resting on the bench for the Thunder. From tha tpoint on the teams would trade the lead until 2:41 left. At that point Grizzlies’ point guard Mike Conley took over. Conley hit a 3 with 1:58 to play to give Memphis the lead for good. Memphis would then go on a 10-0 run. Conley would finish with 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 9 assists in the 99-93 win.

Durant was the hero in game one but he missed his last 3 shots, including a potential game tying 3 with 15 seconds left. Durant would finish with 36 points, 11 rebounds, and 9 assists. Derek Fisher had 19 points, but no one else had more than 11 points for the Thunder. Durant has had to take on more of the scoring since Russell Westbrook is out for the rest of the playoffs after undergoing knee surgery. Memphis center Marc Gasol had 24 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals. Forward Zach Randolph had 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists. Both teams shot around 42% from the field. Memphis had 48 points in the paint and OKC had 30. The Grizzlies outscored them 23-6 in second chance points and 18-7 on the fast break.

Oklahoma City is coached by Scott Brooks. The Thunder are 52-36-2 ATS and the total is 39-49-2 this season. Oklahoma City is outscoring teams 106-97 this season. The Thunder are #3 in scoring and #9 in points allowed. OKC is shooting 48.1% from the field and 37.7% from 3 point range. The Thunder are #3 in both categories. Oklahoma City leads the league in free throw shooting at 82.8%. The Thunder average 43.6 rebounds per game and give up 40.7 per game. They are #6 in both rebounding and rebounds allowed. OKC opponents are shooting 42.5% from the field and 34.6% from 3 point range. The Thunder are #2 in opponents’ field goal percentage, and #6 in three point defense. Oklahoma City averages 21.4 assists, 8.3 steals, 7.6 blocks, and 14.6 turnovers per game.

In the playoffs, forward Kevin Durant averages 32.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 6 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1 block per game. Durant lost the scoring title in the regular season to Knicks’ forward Carmelo Anthony by six tenths of a point. Guard Russell Westbrook averaged 24 points, 6.5 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 steals per game before the injury. Second year guard Reggie Jackson will start in place of Westbrook for the playoffs. He is averaging 14 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. Guard Kevin Martin averages 13.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.7 assists. Martin was acquired in the James Harden trade. Forward Serge Ibaka averages 13 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game. Guard Thabo Sefolosha averages 6.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Nick Collison, Ronnie Brewer, Kendrick Perkins, and Hasheem Thabeet make up the rest of the rotation. The Thunder signed veteran point guard Derek Fisher late in the regular season for the playoff run. He is averaging 8.2 points per game.

Memphis is coached by Lionel Hollins. Memphis is 53-35-2 ATS and the total is 36-53-1 this season. Memphis is outscoring teams 94-90 this season. They are first in the league in points allowed and are #26 in scoring. The Grizzlies are shooting 44.4% from the field and 34.5% from 3 point range. The Grizzlies are #21 in field goal percentage and #24 in three point shooting. Memphis is #9 in the league in free throw shooting at 77.3% from the line. The Grizzlies average 42.6 rebounds per game and give up 39. Memphis is #1 in rebounds allowed and #12 in rebounding. Grizzlies’ opponents are  shooting 43.7% from the field and 33.9% from 3 point range. Memphis is #3 in both categories. The Grizzlies average 20.9 assists, 8.6 steals, 5.3 blocks and 13.2 turnovers a game.

In the playoffs, forward Zach Randolph averages 20.8 points, 8 rebounds to lead the team, and 1.7 assists per game. Randolph dominated the last 4 games against the Clippers scoring at least 23 points in each game. Point Guard Mike Conley, Jr. averages 17.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 1.2 steals a game. Center Marc Gasol averages 17.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, a steal, and 1.7 blocks per game. Forward Tayshawn Prince was acquired from the Detroit Pistons in the Rudy Gay trade. Prince is probable with a hip injury. He is averaging 8.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game in the playoffs.  Tony Allen starts at shooting guard and is one of the best defenders in the league. Allen averages 12 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 2.2 steals per game. Point guard Jerryd Bayless, forward Quincy Pondexter, forward Darrell Arthur, guard Tony Wroten, and forwards Ed Davis and Austin Daye  make up the rest of the rotation.

Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS against teams with winning home records, 8-1 in Saturday games, 7-1 in road games, 9-2-1 on 3 days rest, 19-7 after failing to cover, 38-17 after a straight up loss, 1-4 after a straight up loss, overall, against Western Conference teams, and against Southwest Division teams. The road team is 8-1 ATS and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in this series recently. The Thunder have covered four of the last five times in Memphis.

Memphis is 7-0 ATS against teams with winning records, and against Western Conference teams, 6-0 after a cover, 5-0 against Northwest teams, 4-0 at home and after a  straight up win, 12-3-1 overall, and 36-17 against teams with winning road records. The over is 15-6 in the last 21 in this series. The Grizzlies are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 against the Thunder overall.

I have said it before. If Oklahoma City is going to win this series Durant needs more scoring help. He is spectacular but he can’t do it all by himself. The player who has been the most disappointing since the Westbrook injury is Serge ibaka. He was considered to be the third best player on the Thunder after they traded James Harden to the Rockets before the season started. Yet, Ibaka is still averaging 11 points and 7 rebounds just as he did before Westbrook was injured. If Durant doesn’t get some help Memphis will win this game and eventually the series.

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