NBA MVP Award Betting: Handicapping the Long Shots

Amare Stoudemire's MVP odds are currently at 35 to 1

Here’s a look at each of the options in the NBA Player Props, MVP award.  This article will cover the long shots.  Odds are taken from Bodog.

Amare Stoudemire – Odds: 35/1 – I don’t particularly think Amare has any chance to win this award.  I believe that we’ll quickly see the difference between playing with Steve Nash and playing with Raymond Felton.  For those of you who are skeptical of how much better a point guard can make a big man, look no further than the descent of Tyson Chandler, who actually looked decent when playing with Chris Paul.  I expect Amare’s numbers to drop across the board, and I also expect him to become frusterated with playing on a poor losing team.  This is one bet I would not make. 

Chris Bosh – Odds: 40/1 -There’s absolutely no way that someone who is now a third fiddle wins this award.  His odds would have likely actually been better had he remained in Toronto.  It also shows itself in fantasy drafts, where Bosh, a former late first round pick, is now going late second – early third.  Everyone expects his numbers to dramatically drop off, and even if his field goal percentage does rise from getting better shots, the overall hit his stats take will be dramatic.  I would be absolutely stunned of Bosh even gets any votes for MVP. 

Deron Williams – Odds:  40/1 – Despite being only a stride behind Chris Paul, Deron Williams will most likely be overlooked for this award, even if he does put up another 20/10 season.  Something about his style doesn’t scream exciting, and often the media goes for a player that is exciting (Steve Nash was certainly questionable in both seasons, but they liked the up tempo style of Phoenix).  It would take a contending season by Utah for Deron to have any chance at this award, and I don’t feel their team has what it takes to contend right now.  By losing Boozer and picking up Al Jefferson, they likely took a small step backwards, and losing Wes Matthews to free agency won’t help either.  Save your money and don’t bet on Williams. 

Steve Nash – Odds:  40/1 – Losing Amare means he is going to have to work twice as hard to maintain his gaudy assists numbers, and that isn’t really even relevant.  Nash already won the award in back to back seasons, so unless the Suns have the league’s best regular season record or something, he won’t even be considered.  The media likes to spread the wealth, and Nash’s time in the sun has already came and went.

Pau Gasol – Odds: 50/1 – I’m not sure why a designated second fiddle would be placed on the odds sheet here.  It seems like Gasol should be part of the 12/1 “field” odds, given the fact that he is going to be overlooked in the Lakers’ success because it is Kobe’s team.  This bet would be an utter waste and throw away of money.

Conclusion is that none of these five players offer much value on the current lines.  Luckily we are going to do 2 more articles looking at the favorites and mid range value picks.  Also the NBA season starts up on the 25th.  We are once again going to be providing free NBA picks as well as premium picks for our clients.  Dont miss out and signup for our free winners today.

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Posted by on Oct 20 2010. Filed under Headlines, NBA. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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