NBA Handicapping Picks: Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers
Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers
Staples Center – Los Angeles, California
Sunday, April 13, 2014, 9:35 pm Eastern, TV: NBA TV
Opening Line: Memphis -11
Current Line: Memphis -12
Opening Total: 205 1/2
Current Total: 209
Opening Money Line: Grizzlies -1300 / Lakers +810
Current Money Line: Grizzlies -1200 / Lakers +760
The Memphis Grizzlies are 47-32 this season and lead the Phoenix Suns by a half game for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. Memphis plays at Phoenix tomorrow night in a crucial game. However, before that happens the Grizzlies must travel to the 25-54 Los Angeles Lakers Sunday night. A Memphis win would put them a game ahead of Phoenix, but a loss would put them a half game behind the Suns. The injury ravaged Lakers are having their worst season by losses ever and will miss the playoffs for only the sixth time in their history.
Memphis has won 5 of the last 7 games against the Lakers. The Grizzlies have taken 2 of 3 meetings this season. Memphis won 89-86 in Los Angeles November 15, and 108-103 in Memphis 108-103. The Lakers won 96-92 in Memphis December 17. Marc Gasol and Mike Conly both missed that game for the Grizzlies.
Memphis is coached by David Joerger. The Grizzlies have won 3 of their last 4 games, including 117-95 at home over the Philadelphia 76ers Friday night. While Memphis has won 13 straight games at home, they have dropped 4 of the last 5 on the road. The Grizzlies are 35-42-2 ATS and the total is 38-41 this season.
Memphis is outscoring teams 96-95 this season. The Grizzlies are #3 in points allowed but #27 out of 30 teams in scoring. Memphis is shooting 46.3% from the field and 35.2% from 3 point range. The Grizzlies are #8 in field goal percentage. Memphis makes 74.3% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44.9% from the field and 35.9% from 3 point range. The Grizzlies are 15th or better in both categories. Memphis averages 42.2 rebounds per game and opponents average 39.4 per game. The Grizzlies are #21 in rebounding but lead the league in rebounds allowed. Memphis averages 21.7 assists, 13.6 turnovers, 7.7 steals and 4.6 blocks per game. Opponents average 19.8 assists, 14.2 turnovers, 7.1 steals, and 5 blocks per game.
Point guard Mike Conley averages 17.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 6 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Forward Zach Randolph averages 17.1 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game. Center Marc Gasol averages 14.4 points, 7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. Guard Courtney Lee averages 11.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1 steal per game. Guard Tony Allen averages 9 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. James Johnson, Mike Miller, Kosta Koufos, Tayshaun Prince, Ed Davis, and Nick Calathes will also get significant minutes. Prince is questionable with an ankle injury. Guard Quincy Pondexter is out for the season with a broken foot.
Los Angeles is coached by Mike D’Antoni. The Lakers have lost 8 of their last 9 games, including 6 straight. LA was beaten at home Friday night 112-95 by the Golden State Warriors. This is the last home game for the Lakers this season. Los Angeles is 38-40-1 ATS and the total is 44-35 this season.
Los Angeles is being outscored 110-103 this season. The Lakers are #29 in points allowed. Los Angeles is shooting 44.8% from the field and 38% from 3 point range. The Lakers are #3 in 3 point shooting. LA makes 75.6% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 46.8% from the field and 36.1% from 3 point range. The Lakers are #26 in field goal defense. Los Angeles is averaging 41.1 rebounds per game and opponents average 49.1 per game. The Lakers are #24 in rebounding and #30 in rebounds allowed. LA averages 24.3 assists, 15.2 turnovers, 7.4 steals and 5.5 blocks per game. Opponents average 25.7 assists, 14.2 turnovers, 9.8 steals, and 4.7 blocks per game.
Forward Nick Young averages 17.6 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. Center Pau Gasol averages 17.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.5 blocks per game. He is out indefinitely with vertigo. Guard Jodie Meeks averages 15.6 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. Jordan Farmar averages 10.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1 steal per game. Center Chris Kaman averages 10.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1 block per game. he is out with a calf injury. Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Kent Bazemore, and Xavier Henry are all out for the season. Jordan Hill, Wesley Johnson, Ryan Kelly, Kendall Marshall, and Robert Sacre will get significant minutes as well.
Memphis is 6-2 ATS after a straight up win of more than 10 points, 9-3 against teams with losing home records, 14-6-1 against Pacific Division teams, 2-7 overall, 2-8 after a straight up win, 1-4 against teams with losing records, and after scoring 100 points or more, 3-12-1 against Western Conference teams, 1-5 after the opponent allws 100 points or more in the previous game, 1-6 on one day rest, and 0-7 in road games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 games in Los Angeles in this series. The road team is 2-0-2 ATS in this series recently.
Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS after failing to cover, 2-6 after a straight up loss of 10 points or more, 1-4 when the opponent scores 100 points or more in the previous game, 0-5 against teams with winning records and against Southwest Division teams, 0-4 after a straight up loss, after allowing 100 points or more, at home, overall, against Western Conference teams, on 1 day rest and against teams with winning road records. The underdog is 2-0-2 ATS in this series recently. The Lakers are 2-0-2 ATS in the last 4 against the Grizzlies.
It seems strange to see the Lakers as a 12 point underdog at home. However, this isn’t your typical Laker team. They are basically putting out a glorified D-League team, and playing out the string on a catastrophic season. Still, 12 points seems like a lot for Memphis who has struggled on the road recently. Plus the Grizzlies have a huge game at Phoenix tomorrow night which amounts to a playoff game. I think the Grizzlies win but it will be closer than the oddsmakers think.