LeBron James suddenly appeared human and tired in Game 4 as the Golden State Warriors rallied to dominate the game and tie the series at 2-2. Will James pull another legendary performance in Game 5 or is he starting to tire and show signs of mortality?
Odds c/o Bovada
34.5 Total Points (O -115, U -115)
LeBron James has played 41.5 minutes per game through the first four games of the series, and in the first three games he averaged 41 points per game, scoring more than any NBA player in history for the first three games of the Finals. Last game, James shot just 7 of 22 from the field and missed half of his 10 free throws. He finished with 20 points, but appeared tired most of the game. The Cavs even called a timeout while in the midst of a run because James was gassed. We’re going UNDER.
10.5 Total Rebounds (O -135, U +105)
OVER. Rebounding is a constant, regardless of whether a guy is hitting shots or not. James had 12 rebounds last game, 12 the game prior, and 16 in game 2. Game 1 saw James collect just eight, but we’re going to stick with what he’s done the last three.
8.5 Total Assists (O -130, U EVEN)
UNDER. The UNDER here comes at even odds, which is good considering James has had 8 or less assists in three of the four games in this series. Only in Game 2 (11 assists) did he cross the over on an 8.5 point line.
1.5 Total Threes (O -175, U +145)
OVER. The theme in this game may be James settling for a lot of longer jumpers and threes. As players tire they take the easy bailout rather than attack the basket. The counter argument to this is that James has rested a lot and is going to attack the basket if his shot is off. But it will be a different animal on the road, especially with how Andre Igoudala has locked down James. His best shots will come as threes.
2.5 Blocks + Steals (O -115, U -115)
UNDER. We’ve gone with the UNDER in three of the past four games at 2.5, and it has worked out in three of those four games, as well. He had no blocks or steals in Game 4, and he had none in game 1. James is set at -115 on the under, which is basically even odds with the over. This can be a tough prop to predict, but James hasn’t been making defensive plays as much because he’s been focused on boxing out and clearing the boards.
10.5 Total Points (O -135, U +105)
UNDER. Last game we went with the over on Dellavedova’s prop bets and he burnt us, shooting just 3 of 14 from the floor and 2 of 9 from three-point range to finish with 10 points. Dellavedova has only exceeded this mark in two of the three playoff games, notwithstanding that he did it in impressive form with 20 points. He is averaging 13 points per game, but it’s hard to read a lot into that with his best game having been a 17 field goal attempt affair.
3.5 Total Assists (O -115, U -115)
OVER. Dellavedova has had four assists in each of the past two games and he’s found LeBron James for lobs in each of those games. He has options to dish the ball to, as well, with Timofey Mozgov doing a great job of finishing in the paint in this series.
13.5 points (O -115, U -115)
J.R. Smith got the UNDER from us last game on both these prop bets, and he’s getting the UNDER treatment again. He shot 2 of 12 from the field in Game 4 and he missed all eight of his three-pointers. Smith finished with four points in 28 minutes, unable to answer the Warriors’ charge that eventually saw the Cavs fall behind by double digits at the half. He had 10 points in Game 3. It hasn’t been a good series for the man riding a segway into the locker room.
5.5 Rebounds + Assists (O -135, O +105)
UNDER. Smith is averaging 4.5 Rebounds + Assists in the past two games, and those were at home. He has averaged less than one assist per game in the Finals, too.
2.5 Made Threes (O -140, U +110)
UNDER. Smith hasn’t hit three or more since his 3 of 10 game 1. Last game he put up a goose egg, and while he has the percentages to indicate he could knock them down (averaging 2.3 on 38 percent shooting in the postseason), this has not been his series. He’s shown why he spent so long in George Karl’s dog house in Denver.
9.5 Total Points (O -130, U EVEN)
UNDER. Thompson is averaging 11 points per game in the past two games, and he had 12 last game on 6 of 10 shooting. But that was at home. In Games 1 and 2 at Oracle arena, he scored just four points in 1 of 9 shooting. He may prove us wrong, but let’s go on his past performance on the road in this series.
12 Total Rebounds (O -125, U -105)
OVER. He’s been over 12 every game in this series. Enough said.