NBA Betting Picks: Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic
Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic
Sunday, January 20, 2013, 6:00 pm Eastern, TV: FSN-SW, FSN-FL, NBA-LP
Amway Center – Orlando, Florida
Opening Line: Dallas -3
Current Line: Dallas -3 1/2
Opening Total: 201
Current Total: 202
Opening Money Line: Mavericks -150 / Magic +130
Current Money Line: Mavericks -160 / Magic +140
The Dallas Mavericks, coached by Rick Carlisle and Orlando Magic, led by first year coach Jacque Vaughn have been fixtures in the playoffs for several years. In fact both have made an NBA Finals appearance in the last 3 seasons. However, this season the 17-24 Mavericks and 14-25 Magic will struggle to make the playoffs. Orlando is 6 games behind the Boston Celtics for the 8th playoff spot in the East, and Dallas is 3 1/2 games behind the Houston Rockets for the last playoff spot in the West. Both the Magic and Mavericks are also behind several other teams between them and the current 8 seeds.
The Mavericks travel to the Magic Sunday. The Mavericks lost at home Friday in overtime to the Oklahoma City Thunder 117-114 to snap a 4 game winning streak for Dallas. The Magic lost at home Friday 106-100 to the Charlotte Bobcats. Orlando has gone 2-12 in their last 14 games. However, the wins were over the Los Angeles Clippers and Indiana Pacers, two teams who currently lead their divisions.
Dallas has won six straight games in Orlando. The last five games in this series in Orlando have been decided by 10 points or less. Orlando beat Dallas last March on the road 100-98 in the last meeting between the teams. Orlando has lost 6 straight games to teams with losing records, and 7 of their last 8 home games this season.
Orlando is 20-18-1 ATS (8-13 home) this season and the total is 21-15-3 (12-7-2 home) this season. Dallas is 22-19 ATS (12-10 away) and the total is 24-16-1 (12-10 away) this season.
Dallas is being outscored 103-100 this season. The Mavericks are #10 in scoring and #28 in points allowed. The Mavericks are shooting 44.9% from the field and 35.6% from 3 point range. Dallas makes 79.3% from the free throw line and are #4 in the league. The Mavericks average 41.9 rebounds per game and give up 46.2 per game. Dallas is last in rebounds allowed. Maverick opponents average 44.3% from the field and 36.7% from 3 point range. The Mavericks average 22.1 assists, 7.8 steals, 5.2 blocks, and 14.7 rebounds per game.
Guard O.J. Mayo averages 18.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Forward Dirk Nowitzki missed 27 games to start the season as he recovered from off-season knee surgery. He averages 14 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists. Guard Darren Collison averages 13 points, 5.1 assists, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game. Center Chris Kaman averages 12.6 points and 6.3 rebounds. Guard Vince Carter averages 12.3 points, and 4 rebounds per game. Forward Shawn Marion averages 10.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists. Elton Brand, Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder, Dahntay Jones, and Rodrigue Beaubois make up the rest of the rotation. Because of injuries Dallas has used 19 players this season. The Mavericks are healthy right now though.
Orlando is being outscored 98-95 this season. The Magic are shooting 45.6% from the field and 35.3% from 3 point range. Orlando is #8 in field goal percentage. The Magic are #7 in free throw shooting at 78.4% from the line. Orlando averages 42.5 rebounds, and gives up 41.5 per game. The Magic are in the top 13 in the league in both categories. Orlando opponents are shooting 45.2% from the field and 33.9% from 3 point range. The Magic are #8 in three point defense. Orlando averages 23.1 assists, 5.9 steals, 4.5 blocks, and 14.7 turnovers per game.
Guard Arron Afflalo averages 17.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.9 assists. Forward Glen Davis averages 15.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1 steal a game. He is probable with a back injury. Point Guard Jameer Nelson averages 15.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. He is questionable with a hip injury. Guard J.J. Redick averages 14.6 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. Center Nikola Vucevic averages 11.6 points, 11.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.1 blocks per game. Guard E’Twaun Moore averages 8.8 points, 2.8 assists, and 2.2 rebounds. Forward Andrew Nicholson averages 7.7 points and 3.3 assists. Josh McRoberts, Moe Harkless, Gustavo Ayon, DeQuan Jones, and Ish Smith make up the rest of the rotation. Ayon is questionable with a quad injury. Forwards Hedo Turkoglu (hand) and Al Harrington (knee) are both out indefinitely.
Dallas is 6-0 ATS overall, 5-0 after a cover, when their opponents scored a 100 points or more in their previous game, and on one day rest, 4-0 after scoring 100 points or more, 4-1 after allowing 100 points or more, 8-3 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-2 against teams with losing records, and 0-7 in Sunday games. The Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last trips to Orlando. The road team is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 in this series.
Orlando is 4-0 ATS after a straight up loss, 6-1 after allowing 100 points or more, 4-1 after scoring 100 points or more, 9-3 against Western Conference teams, 5-2 on one day rest, 7-3 after failing to cover, and when their opponent scores over a 100 points in their previous game, 5-11 at home, 1-5 at home against teams with losing road records, 1-6 against Southwest Division teams, and 0-5 against teams with losing records. The over is 11-3 in this series recently, including 5-2 in Orlando. The underdog is 12-3 ATS in this series recently.
Both of these teams have been ravaged by injury this season. The difference is the Mavericks are finally starting to get healthy. The Mavericks are a 3.5 point road favorite. They are certainly the hotter team right now. I like Dallas to win on the road.