NBA Betting: Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

2013 NBA Playoffs – Western Conference Quarterfinals Game #2
#6 Golden State Warriors at #3 Denver Nuggets
Nuggets lead Best of Seven Series 1-0
Tuesday, April 23, 2013, 10:30 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
Opening Line: Denver -7
Current Line: Denver -8
Opening Total: 207
Current Total: 208
Opening Money Line: Nuggets -410 / Warriors +340
Current Money Line: Nuggets -420 / Warriors +350

The Nuggets are 8 point favorites at home against the Warriors Tuesday night in game #2

The Nuggets are 8 point favorites at home against the Warriors Tuesday night in game #2

In the first weekend of the NBA Playoffs, there wasn’t a lot of drama. The home team won every game one for the first time since 2004 and 5 of the 8 games were decided by 17 points or more.  The best game of the weekend was the #3 seeded Denver Nuggets thrilling 97-95 win over the #6 Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Saturday.

The Nuggets took a 28-25 lead at the end of the first but Golden State would take a 48-44 lead at halftime. In the third quarter, Denver held the Warriors to 16 points, and the Nuggets were up 71-67 at the end of the third. In the fourth quarter, veteran point guard Andre Miller scored 18 of his 28 points, including the game-winning lay-up with 1.5 seconds left.

Miller led all scorers, and also added 3 rebounds and 5 assists. The 37 year old had never hit a game winning shot in his career before Saturday, not even in high school or college. Guard Ty Lawson scored 12 points, and guards Wilson Chandler and Evan Fournier added 11 each.Denver started 4 guards with forward Kenneth Faried out for the third straight game with an ankle injury. He is listed as probable for game #2.  Golden State guard Klay Thompson scored 22 points, and guard Stephen curry scored 19 points.  The loss was especially costly for the Warriors who lost all-star forward David Lee to a torn hip flexor in the fourth quarter. He is out for the remainder of the post-season.

Denver has beaten Golden State 4 of the 5 times they have played this season. The Nuggets extended their home winning streak to 24 games with the 97-95 win. Denver had the best home record in the league in the regular season at 38-3, even better than the Miami Heat.

 

Golden State is coached by Mark Jackson. The Warriors are outscoring teams 101-100 this season. Golden State is #7 in scoring but #19 in points allowed. The Warriors are shooting 45.8% from the field and 40.3% from 3 point range. Golden State is #11 in field goal percentage and lead the league in 3 point shooting. The Warriors are #4 in free throw shooting at 79% from from the line. Golden State is #3 in rebounding at 44.9 per game, but #20 in rebounds allowed at 42.7 per game. Warrior opponents are shooting 43.9% from the field and 34.7% from 3 point range. Golden State is in the top 7 in both categories. The Warriors average 22.5 assists, 6.9 steals, 4.2 blocks, and 14.8 turnovers. Golden State is 43-39-1 ATS and the total is 47-35-1 this season.

Guard Stephen Curry averages 22.9 points, 4 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. He set the NBA record for most 3 point shots made in a season with 272. Power forward David Lee averaged 18.5 points, 11 .2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Guard Klay Thompson averages 16.6 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. Point guard Jarrett Jack averages 12.9 points, 5.6 assists, and 3.1 rebounds per game. Forward Carl Landry averages 10.8 points and 6 rebounds per game. Forward Harrison Barnes averages 9.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game. Center Andrew Bogut is probable with an ankle injury. Bogut is averaging 5.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game. Forward Draymond Green is questionable with a knee injury.  Guard Brandon Rush is out for the season with a knee injury.

Denver is coached by George Karl. The Nuggets are outscoring teams 106-101. Denver leads the lead in scoring but is #23 in points allowed. The Nuggets are shooting 47.8% from the field and 34.3% from 3 point range. Denver is #5 in field goal percentage but #25 in 3 point shooting. The Nuggets are #28 in free throw shooting at 70.1% from the line. Denver is #2 in rebounding at 45.1 per game and #10 in rebounds allowed at 41.6 per game. Nugget opponents are shooting 44.4% from the field and 36.3% from 3 point range. The Nuggets are averaging 24.4 assists, 9.3 steals, 6.5 blocks, and 14.7 turnovers. Denver is 49-33-1 ATS and the total is 46-36-1 this season.

Point guard Ty Lawson averages 16.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. He missed 9 games down the stretch with a foot injury but has played the last 5 games. Small forward Danilo Gallinari is out for the season with a torn ACL. He averaged 16.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.5 assists. Shooting guard Wilson Chandler averages 13 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Shooting guard Andre Iguodala averages 13 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Small forward Corey Brewer averages 12.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. Forward Kenneth Faried averages 11.5 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block per game. He is doubtful with an ankle injury. Point guard Andre Miller averages 9.9 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. Center JaVale McGee averages 9.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. Center Kosta Koufos and forwards Evan Fournier and Jordan Hamilton also get significant minutes. Guard Julyan Stone is out indefinitely with a knee injury.

Golden State is 7-0 ATS after a straight up win, 5-0 in conference quarterfinal games, 4-0 overall, against Western Conference teams, and on 2 days rest, 4-1 against teams with winning home records, 5-2 in road games, 6-14 against teams with winning records, and 1-4 in Tuesday games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 in Denver in this series.

Denver is 6-1 ATS against teams with winning records, 10-2 against Pacific Division teams, 4-1 in Tuesday games, 15-6 at home, 43-19-1 against Western Conference teams, 2-5 against teams with losing road records, and 1-4 overall. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 in this series. The Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 at home against the Warriors.

The loss of Lee is devastating for Golden State especially with Faried expected to return for the Nuggets. Golden State still has some great shooters with Curry and Thompson, but Lee was their top inside threat. The Warriors will especially miss his rebounding skills. Lee led the league in double doubles with 56. Golden State had a great chance to steal a game on the road in game #1, especially important since Denver hasn’t lost at home since January 18 and only 3 times period this season. I like Denver to keep the streak going and take a 2-0 lead before the teams head to Oakland  Friday night.

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