Arizona Diamondbacks – 86.5 – I am all over the under here. A lot of people like this team this year, but I am not one of them. Beyond Brandon Webb I don’t trust their pitching, and there is a fair bit of the lineup that doesn’t excite me. They will be a solid team, but this is too many wins for them.
Cincinnati Reds – 78.5 – I wanted to be optimistic about this team. They have a lot of talent that is easy to like. I just think this number is too big, though. If it was 72.5 I would be all over the over, but this seems ambitious. I’d probably lay off entirely here, but if I had to take a side I would go under.
Colorado Rockies – 77.5 – This number is silly. They are going to have pitching problems, and they will seriously miss Jeff Francis. Todd Helton is getting old, and the rest of the starters have a lot to prove. I will be very surprised if they go anywhere close to this number, never mind going over.
Florida Marlins – 75.5 – The Marlins always find a way to get things done. They have a lot of nice young talent, and could accomplish something special. By special I don’t mean a World Series, but I do mean something close to .500.
L.A. Dodgers – 84.5 – I’ll take the over. I’m not particularly high in the NL West (except for the Giants and the Dodgers), but someone has to win the games. Ramirez adds an extra layer of depth to this team, and he is surrounded by solid talent. They are going to win the division, and I could see them doing it with 90 wins or so.
New York Mets – 89.5 – The Mets won 89 games last year, and they are much improved this year, so the over is the solid play. The bullpen is so much better, and that will give the pitchers more confidence and more opportunities to win.
Philadelphia Phillies – 88.5 – I am bearish on the defending champs. They didn’t do anything significant to get better, and the teams around them did. It’s extremely hard for a team to come back after a World Series win and improve as a team. I still think they will be solid, but I see them more in the 85-87 wins neighbourhood.
San Francisco Giants – 80.5 – This might be too much to ask of this team, but I’ll take the over. Especially because you can have the over at a discount. I love the potential of the rotation. The offense has a lot of inexperienced pieces, but it is brimming with talent. If a few breaks go their way this team can certainly flirt with .500 and beyond.