MNF Betting Preview: Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Arian-Foster-texansTexans vs. Steelers
Time: MON, 8:30
Spread: HOU -3
M/L: PIT -140; HOU +120
Total: 44.5

Betting odds courtesy of Bovada

The 3-3 Houston Texans will head to Pittsburgh to face a 3-3 Steelers squad in MNF. The Texans are 3-point favorites according to college football oddsmakers at Bovada.

Houston has been solid on the strength of a tough run offense. The team defense has been subpar, allowing 397 yards per game, 271 of those via the pass. Last week, the Texans lost 33-28 to the Indianapolis Cots, and the team suffered a loss Oct. 5 to the Dallas Cowboys, falling by a field goal in OT. To turn this streak around, the Texans will count on Pittsburgh’s run defense faltering.

While Houston’s strength is the run, the Steelers are just middle-of-the-pack in preventing the run. Pitt allows 111.2 yards per game to rushers, while having a much more formidable secondary, raking 11th in the league in pass defense (225 yards per game).

Pittsburgh has excelled offensively, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing yardage and 4th in rushing yardage.

Ben Roethisberger has showed no signs of slowing down, really. He’s throwing 65.3 percent for completion while having amassed 1,593 yards already this season. He has been sacked 17 times, which is the second most in the NFL;  but has kept his INTs down (just three) and has eight TD passes on the year.  With J.J. Watt on the prowl, keeping Big Ben protected is going to prove very difficult.  That may be what even ends up leading to the Texans to easily cover the 3-point spread.

Roethisberger has also managed two rushing TDs, which leads the team since only Le’Veon Bell has rushed for a TD. Bell averages 5.2 yards per carry, second on the team only to LeGarrett Blount’s six yards per game. Dri Archer is in the stable as a rookie, and has done well in limited carries (just five for 30 yards).

Antonio Brown has been the primary target for Big Ben, with 629 yards and five TDs on the season. He’s gone for 219 yards after catch and helped the Steelers get 30 first downs. Three other receivers average over 200 yards per game, including TE Heath Miller and Bell. Bell’s dual-threat nature makes him a very valuable tool within the offense since he’s formidable at both aspects.

The Texans were counting on Arian Foster returning to form, and all indications are that such is happening. He hasn’t been dominant, but he’s been very good, averaging 4.8 yards per carry on 106 attempts already. He’s rushed for five TDs, while the team has just six rushing TDs. Only Alfred Blue sees significant carries behind Foster, while QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has rushed for 66 yards on 21 carries.

Fitzpatrick boasts a 65 percent completion ratio but is 1:1 TD to INT ratio takes the train off the rain. He’s also been sacked 10 times. While Fitz may average 206 yards per game, the 3.8 percent interception ratio needs to be improved. His top target Andre Johnson is as good as anyone in the league almost, but he’s been reduced to very average status, and he has only one TD on the season. DeAndre Hopkins has three TDs and 110 yards after the catch.

Johnson still excels at that aspect, and Fitzpatrick needs to throw even more his way (he’s accounted for 34 of the team’s 105 receptions). After Johnson and Hopkins, the roster gets dicier with small contributions coming from  Foster in the catch game. Arian has 16 receptions for 131 yards with 128 yards after the catch.  The Texans have effective options, so it should result in effective games.  It hasn’t really.

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