The NBA playoffs get going this weekend. The first round series range from the totally uninteresting – Boston and Atlanta – to the wildly unpredictable – New Orleans and Dallas or Phoenix and San Antonio. When it comes to early playoff action my interest in always in finding the potential upsets. I generally assume that the first round will go to seed form unless I can come up with a good reason for an upset. Here’s how I see the matchups breaking down in terms of the likelihood of an upset.
Virtually no chance of an upset
Boston and Detroit won’t be upset, and I won’t bother spending much time talking about it.
Chances are low but they exist
The Lakers are rolling, and the Nuggets did a nice job of jumping into playoff contention but weren’t exactly dominant. On top of it all, they have the distraction of Melo’s arrest to deal with. L.A. should be fine.
Yao Ming is out, and Rafer Alston will miss the first two games of the series. Houston put together a nice run, but the reality of losing Ming has come home to roost. Utah is deeper and healthier, and they should be able to milk their strong home court advantage for a win.
An upset wouldn’t be much of a surprise
Orlando is better than Toronto, but the Raptors shoot free throws well and they don’t turn over the ball, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that Canada will be represented in the second round.
Phoenix and San Antonio should not be a first round matchup. These teams are both so good that they deserve better. Unfortunately, the same cane be said for most of the West (and almost none of the East). San Antonio probably has more talent, but not by much, and they were lousy down the stretch. This one is as close to a coin flip as there is.
New Orleans has been a great story this year, but they are inexperienced in the playoffs, and they have some matchup problems with the Mavs. The teams split the season series, and neither team looks to have a big edge in the series. Dallas should be looking to erase the memories of their playoff embarrassment last year.
An upset seems likely
Cleveland hasn’t been very strong since making the trade that changed the face of their team, and LeBron James doesn’t seem to be at the top of his health. Washington is playing well, and Gilbert Arenas is back from injury and is probably the best sixth man in the league. If there was just one upset in the first round I would expect this to be it.
