Friday Night College Football Picks: Hawaii Warriors at Air Force Falcons
Hawaii Warriors at Air Force Falcons
Friday, November 16, 2012, 9:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Falcon Stadium – Colorado Springs, Colorado
Opening Line: Air Force -22 1/2
Current Line: Air Force -21 1/2
Opening Total: 63
Current Total: 61
Opening Money Line: Air Force -2750 / Hawaii +1250
Current Money Line: Air Force -1800 / Hawaii +1050
The 5-5 Air Force Falcons look to become bowl eligible Friday night as they host the 1-8 Hawaii Warriors. Air Force has an outside shot of winning the Mountain West title, but a 28-9 loss at San Diego St last week severely damaged those chances. Hawaii is just trying to snap a 7 game losing streak.
These two schools are conference rivals once again as Hawaii joined the Mountain West this season. They were long time rivals in the WAC. Air Force leads the series 11-6-1, including 5-1 in Colorado Springs. Hawaii won the last meeting but they haven’t played since 2001. Before that Air Force had won 4 straight games. Hawaii hasn’t played in Colorado Springs since 1996. The two teams will play for the Kuter Trophy.
Hawaii is 0-6 in the Mountain West under first year coach Norm Chow. The Warriors are in last place in the conference. The only win this season came at home over Lamar 54-2. In every other game, Hawaii has lost by double digits. Hawaii has road losses at USC 49-10, BYU 47-0, San Diego St 52-14, Colorado St 42-27, and Fresno St 45-10, along with home losses to Nevada 69-24, New Mexico 35-23, and last week against Boise St 49-14. The Warriors are 1-7 ATS and the total is 5-3 this season. Hawaii was a 28 point home dog to Boise St and the total was 52.5.
Hawaii is terrible on offense, which seems strange to say, given the Warriors’ historical reputation for explosive offense. The Warriors are averaging 295.2 total yards per game, including 195.4 passing yards and 99.8 rushing yards. Hawaii is 98th or worst in all three categories nationally out of 124 teams. The Warriors are being outscored 43-20 this season. Hawaii is -17 in turnovers with 28 giveaways. The Warriors average 56 penalty yards per game and have given up 31 sacks this season. Hawaii is 51/157 on third and fourth down conversions and 21/27 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns. On defense, the Warriors are giving up 418.1 yards per game, including 208.8 passing yards and 209.3 rushing yards. The Warriors are #40 in pass defense, but are #108 in rush defense and #123 in points allowed. Hawaii has 4 special teams touchdowns this season.
Hawaii quarterback Sean Schroeder, a former Duke transfer, has completed 152 of 294 passes (51.7%) for 1,546 yards with 9 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has been sacked 29 times this year and has a rushing touchdown. Running back Will Gregory has 113 carries, 561 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He is out indefinitely due to being suspended. Gregory also missed the Boise St game. Joey Iosefa has 76 carries for 267 yards, along with 12 catches for 76 yards. John Lister has 41 carries, 149 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 124 yards this season. Seven Warrior receivers have at least 14 catches, but no one has more than 26. Billy Ray Stutzmann has 26 catches, 315 yards and no touchdowns. Jeremiah Ostrowski has 26 catches, 259 yards and a touchdown. Trevor Davis has 17 catches, 235 yards and 2 touchdown. He is questionable with a neck injury. Scott Harding, Chris Gant, and Ryan Hall will also get significant targets. Harding and Grant each have 2 touchdowns. Cornerback Mike Edwards might be the most dangerous kickoff return man in the country. He averages 31 yards per return with 3 touchdowns. Hawaii has 11 players either suspended indefinitely or out for the season because of injury, including 3 receivers, and 5 defensive players.
Air Force is 4-2 in the Mountain West under coach Troy Calhoun. The Falcons have additional road losses at Michigan 31-25, UNLV 38-35 and Army 41-21 along with a home loss to Navy 28-21 in overtime. The falcons have lost two straight games. Air Force has home wins over Idaho St 49-21, Colorado St 42-21, New Mexico 28-23 and Nevada 48-31, along with a 28-27 win at Wyoming. The Falcons are 3-7 ATS and the total is 3-6 this season. Air Force was a 7 point underdog in the SDSU game and the total was 57.5.
Air Force is averaging 458.2 yards per game on offense, including 122.3 passing and 335.9 rushing yards. The Falcons are #2 nationally in rushing and #121 out of 124 teams in passing as you might expect from a team that runs a triple option offense. Air Force is outscoring teams 31-29 this season. The Falcons are -10 in turnovers with 21 giveaways. Air Force has allowed 3 sacks and averages 26 penalty yards per game. The Falcons are 95/177 on third and fourth down conversions, and 32/44 scoring in the red zone with 28 touchdowns. On defense, Air Force is allowing 405.4 yards per game including 183.9 passing yards and 221.5 rushing yards. The Falcons are #112 in rushing defense nationally and #16 in pass defense.. Air Force has forced 10 sacks and 11 turnovers this season. Falcon opponents are 85/168 on third and fourth down conversions and 37/40 scoring in the red zone with 29 touchdowns.
Air Force quarterback Connor Dietz has completed 65 of 104 passes (62.5%) for 1,095 yards with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 117 carries, 606 yards and 5 touchdowns. Running back Cody Getz has 151 carries, 1,006 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Jon Lee has 71 carries, 419 yards and 4 touchdowns. Wes Cobb has 97 catches, 404 yards and 6 touchdowns. Ty MacArthur has 43 carries, 402 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He is also the leading receiver with 22 catches, 379 yards and a touchdown. Mike DeWitt has 51 carries, 188 carries, and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Drew Coleman has 13 catches 311 yards and 3 touchdowns. Dontae Strickland has 12 catches, 232 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 23 carries, 130 yards and 2 touchdowns. he even threw a 54 ayrd touchdown pass in his only attempt of the year. Marcus Hendricks has only 6 catches, but two of them went for touchdowns Eight Falcon players are listed as questionable or out including 5 defensive players.
Hawaii is 5-2 ATS after a double digit home loss, 7-3 on grass, 3-9 in Friday games, 5-17 overall, 3-15 after a straight up loss of more than 20 points, 1-7 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 0-8 after a straight up loss, 0-7 in conference games, 0-5 after allowing 40 points or more, 0-4 in November, in road games, and after scoring 20 points or less.
Air Force is 12-5 after allowing less than 275 yards, 5-11 after allowing 170 passing yards or less, 4-9 at home, 7-16 on grass, 2-5 at home against teams with losing road records, 2-6 in November, 1-4 after rushing for 200 or more yards, against teams with losing records, and after passing for 170 yards or less, and 1-5 overall.
It isn’t hard to see why Air Force has lost two straight games. The Falcons have 9 turnovers in those games against Army and San Diego St. A game against a terrible Hawaii team might be just what the doctor ordered to get the Falcons back on track. Hawaii is decent at stopping the pass, but the Air Force passing game is an afterthought at best. Hawaii is one of the worst teams in the country at stopping the run, however, giving up over 200 yards per game. Plus, they have to travel over 4,000 miles to the cold and altitude of Colorado Springs. It doesn’t look good for the hapless Warriors, and Air Force should be flying high.
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