Friday Night College Football Betting Week 11: Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos
Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos
University Stadium – Albuquerque, New Mexico
Friday, November 8, 2013, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: New Mexico -1 1/2
Current Line: New Mexico -2 1/2
Opening Total: 60 1/2
Current Total: 59 1/2
Opening Money Line: New Mexico -140 / Air Force +120
Current Money Line: New Mexico -145 / Air Force +125
The 2-7 Air Force Falcons and 2-6 New Mexico Lobos are both looking for their first Mountain West Conference win this season as they meet Friday night in Albuquerque. The Falcons are 0-5 in conference and the Lobos are 0-4. Air Force leads the series 20-10 against New Mexico including 9-7 in Albuquerque. The Falcons have won 5 straight games in the series and 8 of the last 9 including a 28-23 win last season in Colorado Springs.
Air Force is coached by Troy Calhoun. The Falcons have gone to a bowl game in each of the six seasons Calhoun has been the coach. However, that streak will come to an end this season as the Falcons already have seven losses. Air Force has home wins over Colgate 38-13 and last week against Army 42-28. The Army win snapped a seven game losing streak for Air Force. The Falcons have home losses to Utah State 52-20, Wyoming 56-23, San Diego State 27-20 and Notre Dame 45-10, along with road losses at Boise State 42-20, at Nevada 45-42, and at Navy 28-10. The Falcons are 3-6 ATS and the total is 5-4 this season. Air Force was a 1 point favorite at home against Army and the total was 54.5.
Army took a 14-7 lead in the first quarter against Air Force. The Falcons would tie the score at 21 by halftime. Air Force took a 28-21 lead in the third quarter. The Falcons expanded the lead to 35-21 in the fourth, but the Black Knights pulled to within 35-28 with just under six minutes remaining. Air Force added another touchdown to make the final 42-28. Air Force had 454 total yards including 343 rushing yards. Army had 417 total yards including 308 rushing yards. The Falcons had the only turnover of the game.
Air Force is being outscored 37-25 in 2013. Air Force is #90 nationally in scoring and #114 in points allowed out of 125 teams. The Falcons are averaging 376.6 yards per game including 279.2 rushing and 97.3 passing yards. Not surprisingly, the triple option Falcons are #11 in rushing nationally and the passing game is #124. The falcons are #89 in total offense. Air Force is giving up 478.2 yards per game including 256.9 passing and 221.3 rushing yards. Air Force is #101 or worse in all defensive categories. The Falcons are -3 in turnovers with 8 takeaways. Air Force is 69/147 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 82/140. The Falcons are averaging 38 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 39. Air Force is 26/28 scoring in the red zone with 20 touchdowns and opponents are 36/41 with 35 touchdowns. The Falcons have forced 9 sacks and allowed 5.
Quarterback Kale Pearson tore his ACL in the first game of the year and is out for the season. Back-up Jaleel Awini threw for 275 yards in 4 games with no touchdowns and a pick, along with 220 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. However he was suspended indefinitely for violating the Academy’s honor code. Karson Roberts started a few games but missed the Army game with a concussion. He is questionable Friday night. Roberts has thrown for 219 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 picks, along with 42 carries, 215 yards and 2 touchdowns. Nate Romine has taken significant snaps in the last 3 games including starting the Army game. He has thrown for 274 yards with a touchdown and a pick, along with 41 carries, 151 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Running back Anthony LaCoste has 90 carries, 604 yards and 6 touchdowns. Broam Hart has 97 carries, 413 yards and 4 touchdowns. Jon Lee has 56 carries, 366 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Sam Gagliano has 12 catches, 214 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 16 carries for 140 yards. Jalen Robinette has 7 catches, 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. Garrett Brown and Garrett Griffin will also get some catches. Ty MacArthur has 7 catches for 99 yards but is questionable with a concussion.
New Mexico is coached by Bob Davie. The Lobos have a road win at UTEP 42-35 in overtime and a home win over New Mexico State 66-17. New Mexico has lost three straight games. The Lobos have home losses to UTSA 21-13, UNLV 56-42, and Utah State 45-10, along with road losses at Pittsburgh 49-27, Wyoming 38-31, and last week at San Diego State 35-30. The Lobos are 4-4 ATS and the total is 6-2 this season. New Mexico was a 14 point underdog at San Diego State and the total was 58.
San Diego State jumped out to a 14-7 lead in the first quarter against New Mexico. Neither team would score in the second quarter. The Lobos would pull to within 21-17 by the end of the third. Each team scored 2 touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but New Mexico missed a two point conversion to make it 35-30 with 46 seconds left. The Lobos were unable to recover the onside kick and the Aztecs took a knee to run out the clock. SDSU had 483 total yards including 249 rushing yards. New Mexico had 423 yards including 253 rushing yards. The Lobos had the only turnover of the game. The two teams combined for 13 penalties.
New Mexico is being outscored 37-33 this season. The Lobos are #112 in points allowed and #44 in scoring nationally. New Mexico is averaging 422.2 total yards including 108.6 passing and 313.6 rushing yards. The Lobos are #3 in rushing but #122 in passing. On defense, New Mexico is allowing 480.8 yards per game including 228.1 passing yards and 252.6 rushing yards. The Lobos are #118 in total defense and #122 against the run. New Mexico is -3 in turnovers with 10 takeaways. The Lobos average 31 penalty yards per game and opponents average 34. New Mexico is 50/123 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 51/106. The Lobos have forced 12 sacks and allowed 16 this season. New Mexico is 27/30 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns and opponents are 28/32 with 25 touchdowns. The Lobos have a kick return and a fumble return both for touchdowns, and have allowed a punt return for a touchdown.
New Mexico uses two quarterbacks. Cole Gautsche has completed 42.4% of his passes for 478 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 87 carries, 577 yards and six touchdowns. Clayton Mitchem has completed 53.1% of his passes for 345 yards with a touchdown pass, along with 34 carries, 57 yards and 2 touchdowns. David Vega has taken 9 snaps this season and has a touchdown pass, along with 14 carries for 84 yards, but he missed the San Diego State game for personal reasons, and is questionable Friday.
Running back Kasey Carrier has 156 carries for 930 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown. Crusoe Gongbay has 49 carries for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Marquis Bundy has 14 catches for 183 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Jeric Magnant has 11 catches for 178 yards, along with 34 rushing yards. Carlos Wiggins has 12 catches, 162 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 12 carries for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns. Wiggins also has a kick return for a touchdown.
Air Force is 8-23 ATS on grass, 2-6 in Mountain West games, and in road games, 3-10 after passing for 170 yards or less, 2-7 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 3-11 overall, 1-4 after scoring 40 points, after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, and in November, 2-8 after accumulating 450 total yards or more, 1-5 after a straight up win, 1-6 against teams with losing records, 0-5 after a cover and after allowing 170 passing yards or less. The road team has covered the last 4 games in this series. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 against the Lobos, including 4-0 in Albuquerque.
New Mexico is 10-4-1 ATS in November, 2-5 at home, 2-5-1 after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, 1-3-1 after a cover, and 1-5 in Friday games.
Both of these teams are great at running the ball but terrible at everything else. This should be a high scoring game as both defenses are among the worst in the country. Neither can stop the run. This line seems a little low to me. Yes, Air Force just beat Army at home alst week, but Army isn’t very good. Lay the 2.5 with New Mexico as you can get good value.