Northwestern vs. Central Michigan – The home Wildcats opened as 10 point favorites. The public is playing Northwestern at over 70% and the line has come down to 6 ½ at most sites. A few books have come back up to 7 points. Don’t be surprised to see some buy back on this game.
The Chippewas have been good against the spread in this situation. Over the past 3 seasons they’re 7-3 as an underdog, 11-5 on the road, 8-2 in September, 3-0 against the Big 10, and 5-1 when the total is between 49 ½ and 56 points. On the flip side, Northwestern is only 4-8 as a favorite, 5-8 at home, 3-6 in September, 0-3 against the MAC, and 3-5 when the total is between 49 ½ and 56 points.
Purdue vs. Toledo – Purdue opened as 14 point home favorites, but the line has come down to 11 ½ or 12 points despite the public playing the Boilermakers at over 60%. The technical numbers don’t really support either side. Against the spread over the past 3 years, Toledo is 1-2 against the Big 10 but 4-1 when the total is 49 ½ to 56 points. Purdue is 1-3 against the MAC and 1-3 as a favorite of 10 ½ to 21 points.
Toledo got smoked by Arizona in its first game, but then bounced back and won straight up as a road underdog in their last two contests, which came against Ohio and Western Michigan. Purdue hasn’t covered a spread. After pushing in their loss to Notre Dame, the Boilermakers beat Western Illinois by 10 and Ball State by 11. Robert Marve was injured in the win over Ball State, but he’s expected to play in this game. Between Purdue’s disappointing performances and Marve’s questionable health, it’s easier to understand why sharp money has come in on Toledo.
Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati– This line has seen an excessive amount of reverse action, which means the wiseguys love Cincinnati in this one. The road Sooners opened as 18 point favorites, and with the public playing Oklahoma at 70% the line has come down to 13 ½ or 14 points. Such movement has created value for Oklahoma in this situation, so don’t be surprised to see buy back in this game, too.
The recent numbers against the spread for both teams support the Sooners. Over the past three years, Oklahoma is 6-3 on the road, 7-3 as a favorite between 10 ½ to 21 points, and 1-0 against the Big East. That single cover came against Cincinnati last year when the Sooners covered a 22 point spread, winning 52-26. Cincy hasn’t been as good against the spread. During the same time period, the Bearcats are only 4-7 at home, 0-1 as an underdog between 10 ½ and 21 points, and a putrid 3-11 in non-conference play.
USC at Washington State – USC opened as 24 point road favorites. The public is playing the Trojans at better than 3:1, and the line has come down to 21 ½ or 22 points. The Trojans haven’t covered a spread yet, and although they’re ranked, they’ve been disappointing. Washington State covered SMU on the road in their last game by 9 ½ points.
The numbers don’t support either side – they’ve both been terrible against the spread. Over the past 3 years, USC is 3-10 as a favorite, 6-12 against conference opponents, and 2-6 in September. Wazzu is 4-8 at home, 6-12 against conference opponents, and 3-7 in September. Something has to give in this one.
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