Free NBA Picks: San Antonio Spurs At Golden State Warriors

San Antonio Spurs AT Golden State Warriors
Tuesday, November 30th 10:35 EST
Current Betting Line:  San Antonio -4.5
Current total: 215
Current Moneyline:  San Ant. -180 / G.S.W. +160

Tim Duncan is averaging only 14 ppg, well under his career average

San Antonio has been off to a red hot start this season, sporting a 14-2 record and have won 9 of their last 10 games.  They are an undefeated 7-0 on the road this year.  Golden State got off to a hot start but has cooled since.  They are now 8-9, but have won only 3 of their last 10 games.  Their record still remains good at home though, 5-2.

Last game for San Antonio, they managed to take out the Hornets in New Orleans, winning 109-95.  Ginobili, 33, is having a career year.   His scoring average is up 6 points higher than his career average and he has scored 23 or more in his last four games.  In those games he is shooting 49.3% from the floor and 42% from behind the arc.  Tonight he will be guarded by Monta Ellis and the game will be fast paced; look for Ginobili to have a huge night.

The total has gone OVER in the last five games for San Antonio.  The Spurs come into the game averaging 107.2 pts against the 98.9 of their opponents, the largest win margin in the league.  Golden State, meanwhile, is averaging 101.6 while giving up 105.8.  Tonight promises to be a high scoring game, as evidenced by the 215 total.  San Antonio is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road, as well; while Golden State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.  They are also 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home against the Spurs.

Some key matchups for tonight’s game:

Manu Ginobili vs. Monta Ellis

As mentioned already, Ginobili has been on fire, but so has Monta Ellis.  Ellis is averaging 24.9 ppg and his field goal percentage is slightly higher than his career average.  He’s already had two 40+ point games.  Ginobili has the ability to slow Ellis, but we can expect both of them to have relatively huge games.  Last game against the Spurs on December 16th 2009, Ellis went for 35, on 16 of 31 from the floor…and the game before that one against the Spurs he went for 42.  So it goes without saying that we can expect Ellis to score 30+ tonight.

David Lee vs. Tim Duncan

Youth vs Experience.  Lee made his first all star team last year, while Duncan has been making all star teams over the last decade.  Their style of play is not at all similar, but both are very effective.  Lee utilizes his speed over defending big men and scores a lot simply by beating them down the court.  Duncan, of course, relies on guile and skill for his scoring as his athleticism is all but gone at this stage in his career.  Lee is not a particularly good one-on-one defender, but Duncan is having the worst year of his 14 year NBA career and is averaging under 30 minutes a game for the first time in his career, allowing him to score only 14 a game.  David Lee’s scoring is down big time over last year, from 20.3 to 13.8.  A lot of people expected Ellis and Curry’s scoring to go down with the addition of Lee, but instead it has been Lee that has suffered the loss.

Tonight’s game will be a high scoring affair and the outcome will be heavily determined by the play of the back courts (Parker & Ginobili vs Steph Curry & Ellis).  San Antonio is probable to cover the spread, but Golden State has remained tough at Oracle Arena.

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