December 30, 2011 NBA Player Prop Betting

Blake Griffin averaged 31.5 in two games against the Bulls last season, and is my favorite pick for tonight's lines.
I took Thursday night off, but hit 4 of 9 Tuesday and 3 of 5 Monday, to give me a season total of 7-7. Since theoretically you should do that well off random guessing, I’m hardly calling it a success, but we’ll look to get back at it tonight with some decent lines offered by

I’ve taken 6 lines, with 5 of them being ‘overs’ on tonight’s action. Let’s see if I can claim at least 4 of them to move up over .500 on the season. Last year, we killed the action and hit over 62%. I expect as the season progresses, we’ll only do better and better, and these are free picks, so it doesn’t get much better than that, does it?

Kris Humphries Total Pts + Rebs 22.5 (vs ATL)

OVER. Humph is averaging 24.4 Pts+Rebs on the season, and I do understand he is giong against a tougher Atlanta frontline, but I have to assume he is going to see more than the 5 shot attempts he saw last night against the Magic. Moreover, against Atlanta on the 27th, he had only 6 rebounds, so it is understandable that the line is set a little low here. Still, I think we have yet to see the best from Humph and expect this to be a breakout season for someone whose extra curricular affairs I couldn’t care less about.

Kyle Lowry Total Pts + Asts 22.5 (vs MEM)

OVER. Lowry is averaging 28 pts + asts so far this season and shooting 45.5% (10 of 22) from the floor. He’s also got to the line 14 times in two games and hit 13 of those shots. His 12 assists against the Magic on the 26th, help rank Lowry among the top assistsman this season. I think it’s pretty clear that it won’t be Mike Conley of the Grizzlies putting a stop to Lowry’s dominance in the backcourt.

Marcin Gortat Total Pts + Rebs 16.5 (vs NOH)

UNDER. I’m starting to get concerned about Gortat. Robin Lopez is seeing the lion’ share of the minutes now, and last game, Gortat played only 17 minutes despite having 0 fouls. In those 17 minutes, Gortat did snatch 8 boards, but scored only 4 points and hit only 1 of 6 from the floor. Because his minutes have declined from both the first game to the second, I expect further decline, and am going to go with the ‘under’ despite the fact Gortat is clearly the more talented of Phoenix’s two headed monster in the middle.

DeMar DeRozan Total Pts 17.5 (vs DAL)

OVER. Last game I went with the Under because DeRozan has historically struggled against the Pacers. Last season against the Mavs, DeRozan put up 18 and 19 in the two games, so I am going to go with the over on this one. He was a huge focus last year for the Raptors, but demonstrated what he can do when he gets hot, putting up 22 in the second half against the Pacers, as he hit 9 of 16 from the floor and 2 of 2 from behind the arc, after not scoring the entire first half.

Paul Millsap Total Pts 14.5 (vs PHI)

OVER. Millsap saw only 21 minutes in the blowout loss to Denver, but hit 6 of 9 shots. Because he is seeing less minutes this year, this is a precarious line, but I have to believe that Tyrone Corbin is going to be smart enough to play Millsap more tonight. Last season, against the 76ers, Millsap scored 18 points on 8 of 16 shooting.

Blake Griffin Total Pts 23.5 (vs CHI)

OVER. Blake Griffin is going to be amped up for this game and I just don’t see how Carlos Boozer is going to slow him down in any way whatsoever. Last season in the two games against the Bulls, Griffin posted 32 and 29, so he averaged 31.5 That is well over this line, and I am going with the over by at least 5 points, as I think Griffin puts up 30 tonight. But that’s irrelevant. Over, is the point.

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