There’s a lot to keep in mind as we head into a big weekend of college and NFL action:
The Bills will be without three starters. The biggest loss in wide receiver Josh Reed. I’m kind of excited by his injury, though. I like him just fine, but I’m very interested to see James Hardy get the chance to see more action. This is a rookie I really like.
Worst NFL Game of the Week – There are obvious reasons to look towards the Lions at the Bears. My favorite Lions stat – all but one opposing quarterback has set a career high for quarterback rating. Ouch. That one won’t be as bad, though, as Jacksonville at Cincinnati. Jacksonville is disappointing and full of problems. Cincinnati is so bad that T.J. Houshmanzadeh talked publicly about the possibility of a winless season. He guaranteed it wouldn’t happen, but still – If he is publicly addressing the possibility of imperfection then things are really bleak.
Best NFL Game of the Week – The Patriots at Indianapolis should be a lock for this honor, but there are too many issues on both sides to give it to them. I did like, though, how Bill Belichick talked trash about the Colts. Green Bay at Tennessee could be a good one, as pretty much every game with an undefeated team is this late in the season. Dallas at the Giants is a good old fashioned divisional grudge match. My choice, though, is the MNF tilt between Pittsburgh and Washington. These are two tough, well coached teams that will take this one to the trenches. It won’t be explosive or flashy, but it should be good fun for those of us who like hard-played football.
We’re going to delay our regularly scheduled programming a bit this week in recognition of the start of the NBA season. I don’t generally bet on the NBA as much as other sports – I get most of my hoops fix from the college ranks – but I do love the league, and I look for intriguing betting opportunities daily. As the season gets underway, here are ten things I will be keeping an eye on as a bettor:
1. The Big 12 is amazing. At the top, at least. Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas Tech all won in impressive style. The latter three were explosive offensively, and Texas got a hard fought win over another impressive Big 12 squad in Oklahoma State. If this conference can manage not to cannibalize itself then it could do some real damage. The winner of the Texas – Texas Tech game this weekend should manage to make it to the championship game without a loss. Then it gets tough with the conference championship, but that’s another story.
There are some very interesting games to watch on Saturday. No real barn burners that are guaranteed classics, but several that will teach us more than a little abut high profile teams. I won’t be watching any of them – I’ll be at the Breeders’ Cup watching Curlin run into history. At the very least you should watch some of the racing as you watch football. It will be worth it. Here are the games that stand out to me:
Texas Tech (+1) at Kansas – The Red Raiders need to keep winning to keep pace with Texas and give themselves a shot at an improbable Big 12 championship. Kansas can’t afford a loss if it wants to maintain any chance of conference relevance. The stakes are high. That always makes for a fun game.
Oklahoma State (+11.5) at Texas – It is no exaggeration to say that this is the biggest game in the history of the Oklahoma State program. A win here would be spectacular. There could be a chance of a letdown for Texas – this is the third straight week that they have played the biggest game of the weekend.
Georgia (+1) at LSU – Both teams have encountered speed bumps along the way, but if they keep winning they could be in position to pick up the pieces and end up in a very big bowl game. Neither team has been flawless at handling pressure, so they will have to show somethiing they haven’t been able to consistently.
Wyoming (+30.5) at TCU – TCU is coming off a dominating, shocking win against BYU last week. Now they play a team they can beat in their sleep. How they perform will be very illuminating – can the coach keep them focused, or will they be too busy reading the headlines to play as well as they have shown they can?
Worst NFL Game of the Week – There are two solid possibilities here. Seattle plays at San Francisco. The Seahawks are terrible, and they seem to be in a spiral. The Niners are almost as bad, though there may be a bit of a boost thanks to the new coach. It certainly helped the Rams. Instead of that one I will go with one that is almost certain to stink – Cincinnati at Houston. The Bengals are awful, and Houston, though they have potential, have been inconsistent. The Texans are favored by 10, which is a sign of just how bleak things are in Cincinnati.
Another week of football. That means another week of lessons learned. I’m on vacation in California leading up to the Breeders’ Cup, so the biggest lesson I learned today is that Joshua Tree is a really, really cool place. Crossroads Cafe – best bacon cheeseburger in the state. I haven’t tasted them all (though I would love to), but I am still confident of the claim. Despite the trekking through the desert and the eating of burgers, I did manage to fit some football time in, too. Here’s what sticks out:
Texas Tech (-21) at Texas A&M – This one should be a one-sided mess. What I want to see, though, is how the Red Raiders bounce back from barely scraping by Nebraska. I like this team, and I want to believe in them, but they run the gauntlet in their next four – Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, then Oklahoma – so they need to prove that they are up for that challenge. A dominating performance here would help. I especially want to watch their defense – they should be able to shut down the Aggies completely, but only if they tighten up on what they have done for the last few weeks.
Vanderbilt (+16.5) at Georgia – I don’t really believe in Georgia, so this one is a chance for them to prove me wrong. Vandy was a fun story early on, but they are coming off a game n which they had 107 total yards. How is that even possible? They need to bounce back in a big way, or the progress they have made this year will be discounted.
Colorado State (+21) at Utah – After BYU forgot to catch their flight to TCU on Thursday, Utah stands as the lone team in the MWC with a shot at busting the BCS. This game is no challenge for them, but I will be looking closely to see how they react to that extra pressure now and in the next few weeks.
There is a classic match-up on Thursday night in college football. That’s nothing new – the Thursday nights have been very good to us all year. This one, though, is a chance for a lot of people to see first-hand what the Mountain West has to offer (a lot, by the way). BYU travels to TCU in a game that will either significantly strengthen BYU’s claim to being a BCS Buster, or redeem TCU for a rough game against Oklahoma. The game started out with BYU favored by two, but has snce mved so that the home team s favored by as many as two. I’ve had this game crcled on my calendar for a long while now. I’ll leave the pick up to you, but here’s a look at three reasons you could justify betting on either eam:
Another week, another set of simulations from the PS2. It’s not the best way to pick games, but then it has probably at least as much merit as the methods used by most of the betting public. That’s why sportsbooks make lots of money.
Ohio State at Michigan State – I am surprised by what happened here, but in a very pleasant way. I really, really hate Ohio State, so any time they lose it is a good thing. That makes this a great thing. Michigan State jumped out to a quick lead when Javon Ringer broke a long TD run, and they never really looked back. The final score was reasonably close – 35-31 – but Michigan State never gave up their early lead, and Ohio State made it respectable only by scoring the last ten points. Terrelle Pryor was just okay, not putting up any of the eye-popping numbers that we are going to have to get used to in coming years unfortunately.
Missouri at Texas – I think my machine has a man-crush on Chase Daniel. That’s the only way I can explain what happened here. Daniel threw for seven touchdowns. Yes, seven. Colt McCoy had a pretty gaudy day himself, but it was nothing next to the Mizzou super-stud and, if the game has anything to say about it, future Heisman winner. Needless to say, Missouri was able to pull out the win behind that showing, coming out 59-35. The PS2 doesn’t have much respect for either of these defenses. My favorite stat to come out of ths one was that Daniel was bombing so much that he was making his defense work – the Longhorns won the time of possession battle by quite a bit.
Continue reading “WWMPD – Now What Would My PlayStation Do?”
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