The betting public is composed of suckers. That, of course, is why sportsbooks exist. I’m sure that every time a reasonably unexpected player has a big performance the books just laugh and figure out how they are going to spend all of the extra money that they are going to make. That’s because the public assumes that any performance, no matter how gaudy or unexpected, is completely sustainable. If a players has a huge game this week, public logic dictates that they wll do it again the next week, and they bet accordingly. They usually won’t, obviously, and that will often cost the overly eager public some cash. Here are five players (six, actually) who could prove costly:
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Month: September 2008
Shawne Merriman is done for the season. He’s chosen to get the surgery on his knee because he is ineffective without it. Only a genius could have seen this shocking development coming. Ridiculous. I want the last two weeks of my life back – all I heard was talk about him, and all for nothing. Listening to all that made me long for Favre talk.
We’re starting something new. Every Tuesday during the football season we are going to do a look ahead at what the coming weekend has to offer – the highs and lows, the betting intrigue, the clear stay-aways, the fun stories. Without further ado…
Worst game of the week (and perhaps ever) – There is absolutely no contest here. Kansas City is a four point favorite at home against the Raiders. I could spend every minute between now and kickoff trying to come up with a single nice thing to say about each team and I couldn’t do it. Terrible, awful, thoroughly irredeemable game. The sad part is that this used to be such a classic rivalry. Pathetic.
Best NFL game of the week – The obvious choice would be the Monday night Philly-Dallas game, but choosing that wouldn’t be very original, and I’m not sure it will live up to the hype. Pittsburgh and Cleveland has promise, but I am justifiably scared of Cleveland after the Dallas game. That leaves me with my choice – Buffalo at Jacksonville. Buffalo played one of the three best games of the first week (along with Dallas and Pittsburgh). Jacksonville was embarrassed by Tennessee and will be looking to bounce back strong. This one could be a classic. Jacksonville is favored by six.
Games with teams with most to prove – San Diego at Denver. The Chargers were should be disgusted by how they started and ended their opener against Carolina. They have a clear chance to be the class of the AFC now, but they have to be much, much better to do so. Denver looked surprisingly complete on Monday night, but that probably doesn’t mean much since it only came against Oakland. They will be looking to prove that they are legitimate, and nothing would do that better than a win here. San Diego is only favored by one.
I was going to call this post Monday’s Insights, but this first weekend of the NFL has made it perfectly clear to me that insights are an endangered species. The Vikings were the latest problem. I have been high on this team for more than a year now. Tonight they rewarded my faith by looking very, very average. Tarvaris Jackson made it increasingly difficult to imagine he has a bright future with a lackluster performance that was short of compelling excuses. Adrian Peterson was Adrian Peterson, with 103 yards and a touchdown. I have one huge question for the Minny staff after watching the game – why in the world did Peterson only get 19 touches? He was effective. Not much else was. What were you waiting for? You only lost by five, so another 10 carries could have made the difference.
1. Notre Dame is awful. I was pretty sure that the experts who were saying that Notre Dame was going to win nine or ten games this year were crazy. Now I know for sure. They rallied to beat San Diego State, but that’s not much of an accomplishment when you are playing one of the worst teams in division one and you are favored by 21.5 points. The Irish looked confused, lethargic, unprepared and very predictable. They were sloppy, and they got lucky. Charlie Weis is a terrible coach, and I have no faith in his ability to turn ths mess around.
I’m not going to be providing picks for games here, but each Saturday during the college season I will be highlighting the Top 25 games that I think are the most worth checking out.
Ohio (+33) at Ohio State – This one is interesting not in it’s own right, but because of what is on the horizon. Ohio State can handle Ohio in their sleep. Beanie Wells is out, though, and USC will be sitting at home watching this one, so the Buckeyes won’t be looking to show off any tricks. This will be a plain vanilla game plan and the Buckeyes will be looking to stay healthy for next week. If you don’t believe in the Buckeyes then this could be a spot to consider playing against them. They’ll win for sure, but they may not care enough to win by five touchdowns. I just hope that we get to see Terrelle Pryor play more.
I’ve decided not to acknowledge that mess of a game between Washington and the Giants as the start of the NFL season. The Redskins in no way resembled an NFL team, so it shouldn’t count. That means that the official start of the NFL season is on Sunday. Though I still mostly see the NFL as just as acceptable follow-up to college football instead of a stand-alone attraction, I still greet the season with all sorts of excitement, and I have spent a good portion of my time over the last while thinking about this season from a ridiculous number of angles. Some of the thoughts have been productive and helpful towards the goal of profitability, and some almost certainly have not. Still, thinking about football is better than a huge majority of other possible activities.
The long wait is over and the NFL season is here. Sort of. I’m not entirely sure that that mess of a game tonight is worthy of being called an NFL game. It was hard to stay awake through that one, and it didn’t even start late.On the plus side, it can only get better from here. As I was watching, here are ten thoughts that came to mind:
The buzz has been around for a bit, but it really seems to be intensifying tonight – it seems like Tampa Bay is going to call up phenom pitcher and former number one pick for the post-season. Though he is a starter, he would likely start out in the bullpen much like Joba Chamberlain did last year. That worked out very well at the time (except for when there were bugs), and the same could happen for the Rays. They don’t really need rotation help right now, but another stud in the bullpen would really help. Apparently Price is doing very well in the minors and is more than ready for prime time. I think that the Rays are attractive anyway, but this helps even more.
As we get down to the point where we can start counting down to the NFL season in hours or even minutes, I find myself constantly looking at the upcoming season from every different angle. It will be a very good thing when the season finally gets underway, because then I can’t start looking at what actually happens instead of driving myself crazy thinking about what might happen. Until then, though, all I can do is ask questions I can’t answer. Here are ten of those questions that keep coming back to the top of my mind:
Continue reading “Eight Questions Heading Into the NFL Season”
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