College Hoops Betting: North Carolina State Wolfpack at #4 Duke Blue Devils

North Carolina State Wolfpack at #4 Duke Blue Devils
Thursday, February 7, 2013, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ACC Network, ESPN Full Court
Cameron Indoor Stadium – Durham, North Carolina
Opening Line: Duke -10 1/2
Current Line: Duke -11
Opening Total: 153
Current Total: 150 1/2
Opening Money Line: Duke -600 / NC State +475
Current Money Line: Duke -600 / NC State +475


Duke is an 11 point favorite over tobacco road rival NC State Thursday night.

Duke is an 11 point favorite over tobacco road rival NC State Thursday night.

At the beginning of the season the ACC media and coaches picked the North Carolina State Wolfpack to win the ACC. The Duke Blue Devils were the second choice, with North Carolina expected to have a rebuilding year. Well the Wolfpack and Blue Devils meet Thursday in Durham, with both teams looking up at the surprising Miami Hurricanes who are 9-0 in conference. Duke is 19-2 overall and 6-2 in conference. NC State is 16-6 overall and 5-4 in the ACC. Duke leads the series 138-98, including 69-57 in Durham. The then #1 Blue Devils were upset in Raleigh last month 84-76. The two schools are located less than 30 miles apart.

NC State is coached by Mark Gottfried. The Wolfpack have losses to Oklahoma St in a tournament in Puerto Rico, at Michigan, Maryland, Wake Forest, and Virginia, along with with a home loss to Miami Saturday 79-78. The Wolfpack have lost 4 of their last 6 games, and two in a row. All four losses in that stretch are by 3 points or less. NC State has key wins over Miami-Ohio, Penn St and UMass in Puerto Rico, UConn in New York, Cleveland St, Stanford, St. Bonaventure, and Western Michigan out of conference. The Wolfpack have ACC wins at Boston College, and home wins over Georgia Tech, Clemson, and North Carolina. The Wolfpack are 11-9 ATS and the total is 10-7 this season.

NC State is outscoring teams 79-70 this season. The Wolfpack are #11 in scoring nationally, but #256 out of 347 teams in points allowed. NC State is shooting 50.4% from the field and 40.1% from 3 point range. The Wolfpack are in the top ten nationally in both categories. North Carolina St makes 68.3% of their free throws. The Wolfpack average 37.2 rebounds  and gives up 31.4 per game. NC State opponents’ are shooting 41.2% from the field and 28.7% from 3 point range. The Wolfpack are #13 in three point defense. NC State averages 15 assists, 6 steals, 4 blocks, and 12 turnovers per game.

Forward C.J. Leslie averages 15.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, a steal, and a block per game. Forward Richard Howell averages 12.8 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal, and a block. Guard Lorenzo Brown averages 12.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. He is doubtful with an ankle injury after missing the Miami game. Forward T.J. Warren averages 11.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game.  Forward Scott Wood averages 11.5 points, 3 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game. Guard Rodney Purvis averages 9.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.7 assists. Tyler Lewis and Jordan Vandenburg will also get some time in the rotation.

Duke is coached by Mike Krzyzewski. Duke’s other loss this came season came at Miami 90-63. The Blue Devils have key wins over Kentucky in Atlanta, Minnesota, VCU, and Louisville in a tournament in the Bahamas, Ohio St, Temple in East Rutherford, New Jersey, Davidson in Charlotte,  Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Wake Forest,a nd Florida St Saturday 79-60. The Blur Devils have won 3 straight games after the Miami rout. Duke is alone in second, a half game ahead of North Carolina in the ACC standings. The Blue Devils are 12-9 ATS and the total is 11-9 this season.

Duke is outscoring teams 78-63 this season. The Blue Devils are #13 in scoring nationally. Duke is shooting 47.3% from the field and 41.1% from 3 point range. The Blue Devils are #27 in field goal percentage and #7 in 3 point shooting nationally. Duke makes 70.2% of their free throws. The Blue Devils average 35.7 rebounds per game and give up 33.1  per game. Duke opponents are shooting 40.1% from the field and 30.4% from 3 point range.  Duke averages 16 assists, 7 steals, 4 blocks, and 11 turnovers a game.

Forward Mason Plumlee averages 17.6 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game. Guard Seth Curry averages 16.3 points, 2.1 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game.  Forward Ryan Kelly is out indefinitely with a foot injury. He averages 13.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game. Guard Quinn Cook averages  11.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Guard Rasheed Sulaimon averages 11.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. Tyler Thornton, Amile Jefferson, and Josh Hairston make up the rest of the rotation. Hairston will start in place of Kelly, but none of those three players average more than 4.7 points per game.

NC State is 4-0 ATS in Thursday games, 17-5 in road games against teams with winning home records, 20-8 in road games, 10-4-1 in ACC games, 19-9-1 overall, and  3-7-1 after a straight up loss. The Wolfpack are 5-2 ATS in the alst 7 against Duke, and were the underdog in every one of those games.

Duke is 4-9 ATS against ACC teams, and 0-5 after a cover. The over is 13-3-1 in this series recently, including 5-2 in Durham.

Both teams are missing key players, in Brown for the Wolfpack and Kelly for the Blue Devils. Neither are that deep to begin with. North Carolina St pulled off the upset  last month in Raleigh. In that game the Wolfpack shot over 50% from the field including 4/8 from 3 point range. I don’t see them doing that again especially if Brown the floor general is out. Both of these teams have two of the best offenses in the nation, so look for an up and down game. I like Duke at home, but NC State keeps it within the number.

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