College Football Week Three Betting Preview: Tennessee Volunteers at #2 Oregon Ducks
Tennessee Volunteers at Oregon Ducks
Autzen Stadium – Eugene, Oregon
Saturday, September 14, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Opening Line: Oregon -20
Current Line: Oregon -27 1/2
Opening Total: 70
Current Total: 70
Opening Money Line: Oregon -3500 / Tennessee +1750
Current Money Line: Oregon -7000 / Tennessee +3000
The Tennessee Volunteers started off the season with blowout wins over Austin Peay and Western Kentucky. But now it gets much, much tougher for the Volunteers, as the face Oregon, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama in the next 7 weeks. First up, is a trip across the country to play #2 Oregon. Oregon won the only other meeting between the schools in 2010 in Knoxville 48-13.
Tennessee crushed Austin Peay 45-0 and Western Kentucky 52-20 last week, both in Knoxville. The Volunteers are 1-1 ATS and the total is also 1-1. Tennessee, coached by Butch Jones, was a 14 point favorite against Western Kentucky and the total was 59.5. After Western Kentucky kicked a field goal, the Volunteers would score 31 unanswered points to go up 31-3 early in the second quarter. The Hilltoppers would score two touchdowns before half to make it 31-17 going into the locker room. The Vols would outscore WKU 21-3 in the second half. Tennessee forced 7 turnovers including 5 in six offensive snaps for Western Kentucky. The Vols had 2 first quarter pick sixes.
Tennessee is outscoring teams 48.5-10 so far this season. The Volunteers average 414.5 yards per game, including 277.5 rushing yards. Tennessee is giving up 302 yards per game on defense including 177 passing yards. The Volunteers are +7 in turnovers with 9 takeaways. Tennessee is 11/21 on third down conversions and hasn’t attempted a fourth down conversion yet this season. The Volunteers are 12/14 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns.
Tennessee quarterback Justin Worley has completed 68.8% of his passes for 246 yards with 4 touchdowns and an interception, along with 5 carries for 20 yards. Running back Rajion Neal has 31 carries, 215 yards and 4 touchdowns. Marlin Lane has 22 carries, 135 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Receivers Johnathan Johnson, Marquez North, Josh Smith, and Alton Howard all have at least 4 catches. Tight end Brendan Downs has 2 catches, both for touchdowns. Four Volunteer defensive players are listed as questionable Saturday.
Oregon is 2-0 this season under coach Mark Helfrich, with routs over Nicholls State 66-3 and at Virginia 59-10. The Ducks are 2-0 ATS and both games have gone over the total. Oregon was a 26.5 point favorite on the road at Virginia and the total was 60. The Ducks jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back. The Cavaliers would make it 28-10 at halftime, but Oregon outscored them 31-0 in the second half. Oregon rolled up 557 total yards including 350 rushing yards. The Ducks over came 11 penalties for 119 yards and forced 4 turnovers.
Oregon is outscoring teams 62.5-6.5 this season. The Ducks average 664.5 yards per game including 425 rushing yards. Oregon is allowing 320.5 yards per game on defense, including 215 passing yards. The Ducks are +6 in turnovers for the season with no giveaways. Oregon is 10/25 on third and fourth down conversions. The Ducks have forced 8 sacks. Oregon is 10/12 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns.
Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota has completed 53.1% of his passes for 433 yards with 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions, along with 9 carries for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns. Running back De’Anthony Thomas has 29 carries, 252 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 2 catches for 30 yards. Byron Marshall has 23 catches, 155 yards, and a touchdown. Receiver Josh huff has 8 catches for 173 yards. Bralon Addison has 5 catches for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Pharoah Brown is questionable for undisclosed reasons.
Tennessee is 4-9 ATS overall, 2-5-1 after scoring more than 40 points, and against teams with winning home records, 2-6-1 after a straight up win, 3-9-1 against teams with winning records, 1-4 in non-conference games, 0-7-1 after a cover, and 0-4 against Pac 12 teams.
Oregon is 8-0 ATS after rushing for 200 yards or more, 4-0 overall, 7-1 after scoring 40 points or more, after a straight up win, and against teams with winning records, 6-1 after a cover, and after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 4-1 at home, after gaining more than 450 total yards, on fieldturf, and after allowing 20 points or less.
This line opened at -20, and quickly moved to -27 1/2. That is probably where the line should have opened. Yes, Tennessee destroyed a decent Western Kentucky team who upset fellow SEC member Kentucky the week before. However, Western Kentucky isn’t close to the level of Oregon, and especially since the Volunteers have to travel to Eugene. Oregon rolls in this contest and covers easily.
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