College Football Week Three Betting Preview: Minnesota Golden Gophers at TCU Horned Frogs

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, Texas

Saturday, September 13, 2014, 4:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Opening Line: TCU -8
Current Line: TCU -16
Opening Total: 47 1/2
Current Total: 49
Opening Money Line: TCU -390 / Minnesota +320
Current Money Line: TCU -700 / Minnesota +500

TCU is a 16 point favorite against Minnesota Saturday in Fort Worth.
TCU is a 16 point favorite against Minnesota Saturday in Fort Worth.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers and Texas Christian Horned Frogs meet for the second time ever Saturday in Fort Worth. Minnesota won the only previous meeting 9-7 in 1974. The two teams will meet again next season in Minneapolis to complete the home and home.

Minnesota is 2-0 this season under coach Jerry Kill. The Golden Gophers have home wins over Eastern Illinois 42-20 and last week against Middle Tennessee 35-24. Minnesota is 1-1 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season. The Golden Gophers were 13.5 point favorites against Middle Tennessee and the total was 50.5.

TCU is coached by Gary Patterson. TCU had an open date last week after a season opening home win over Samford 48-14 two weeks ago.  The Horned Frogs barely covered the 33.5 point spread and the game went over the 51.5 point total.

Minnesota is outscoring teams 39-22 this season.  The Golden Gophers are averaging 344.5 yards per game on offense, including 111.5 passing and 233 rushing yards. The rushing attack is #31 in the country, but the Gophers are #120 out of 128 teams in passing. The Golden Gophers are #104 in total offense. Minnesota is allowing 427 total yards per game, including 282.5 passing yards and 144.5 rushing yards. The Gophers are +4 in turnovers with 6 takeaways. Minnesota is averaging 37 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 54. The Gophers are 11/24 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 19/43. Minnesota has forced 5 sacks and allowed 2. The Gophers are 6/6 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns, and opponents are 4/5 with 3 touchdowns. Minnesota has 2 defensive/special teams touchdowns.

Minnesota quarterback Mitch Leidner has completed 50% of his passes for 211 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception, along with 12 carries for 47 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back David Cobb has 291 rushing yards on 43 carries and 2 touchdowns plus 2 touchdowns. Berkley Edwards has 10 carries for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns. Dohnovahn Jones has 6 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. Maxx Williams has 3 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown.

TCU jumped out to a 24-0 lead against Samford and never looked back. The Horned Frogs led 48-7 in the fourth before a late pick six for Samford made the score 48-14, creating some anxious moments for TCU bettors had the Bulldogs decided to go for two instead of kicking the extra point.

TCU had 555 total yards including 355 passing and 200 rushing yards. The Horned Frogs held Samford to 143 total yards and just 9 first downs. The Bulldogs were 6/21 on third and fourth down conversions and TCU was 9/18. TCU had 33 first downs. Each team had 2 turnovers.

TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin completed 29 of 41 passes for 320 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, plus he rushed for 29 yards on 10 carries with a touchdown. Running backs Trevorris Johnson and B.J. Catalon each had a rushing touchdown, but no TCU player rushed for more than 43 yards. Kolby Listenbee had 3 catches for 76 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Minnesota is 6-1 ATS on grass, 5-1 against teams with winning records, and in road games, 4-1 against teams with winning home records, and after a straight up win, 7-2 overall, 8-3 in non-conference games, 5-2 after failing to cover, and after rushing for over 200 yards.

Minnesota has 2 wins against teams they should have beaten easily, and TCU also has a win against lesser competition. This should be a low scoring game but TCU pulls away late.

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