College Football Week Three Betting Picks: Houston Cougars at #25 BYU Cougars

Houston Cougars at #25 Brigham Young Cougars
LaVell Edwards Stadium – Provo, Utah
Thursday, September 11, 2014, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: BYU -14
Current Line: BYU -18
Opening Total: 55
Current Total: 58 1/2
Opening Money Line: BYU -1100 / Houston +700
Current Money Line: BYU -1400 / Houston +800

BYU is a heavy favorite against Houston Thursday night in Provo.
BYU is a heavy favorite against Houston Thursday night in Provo.

The Brigham Young Cougars and Houston Cougars meet for the second time ever Thursday in Provo. BYU won last year in Houston 47-46 in a wild shootout.

Houston is 1-1 this season with a 27-7 loss to Texas-San Antonio and a 47-0 shutout of Grambling last week. BYU is 2-0 with wins at Connecticut 35-10 and Texas 41-7 last week. Houston is 0-2 ATS and both games have gone under the total. The Cougars were 49.5 point favorites against Grambling and the total was 66. BYU is 2-0 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season. BYU was a 1 point underdog at Texas and the total was 47.5.

Houston is coached by Tony Levine. Houston is outscoring teams 27-14 this season. The Cougars are averaging 343 total yards per game including 218 passing and 125 rushing yards. On defense, Houston is allowing 251 total yards per game including 148 passing and 103 rushing yards. The Cougars have 8 turnovers and forced 7 of their own. The Cougars are averaging 39 penalty yards a game and opponents are averaging 131 per game. Houston is 10/35 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are  9/34. The Cougars have allowed 4 sacks and forced 4 as well. Houston is 8/12 scoring in the red zone with 5 field goals and opponents are 5/7 with 3 touchdowns. The Cougars have one defensive touchdown this season.

Houston quarterback John O’Korn has completed 52.2% of his passes for 404 yards with a touchdown and 4 interceptions. Running back Kenneth Farrow has 20 carries for 151 yards with a touchdown along with 2 catches for 23 yards. Javin Webb has 8 carries for 72 yards. Ryan Jackson has only 13 carries but has 2 touchdowns, along with 4 catches. Receiver Deontay Greenberry has 11 catches for 206 yards. Greg Hardy, Jr. has both a receiving and a rushing touchdown.

Brigham Young is coached by Bronco Mendenhall. BYU is outscoring teams 38-9 this season. The Cougars are averaging 473 yards per game including 245 passing and 229 rushing yards per game. BYU is allowing 307 yards per game on defense, including 230 passing and 77 rushing yards. The Cougars have forced 6 turnovers and allowed 4 this season. BYU is averaging 95 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 77. The Cougars are 13/28 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 13/38. BYU has allowed 7 sacks and forced 7 sacks as well. The Cougars are 8/9 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns, and opponents are 3/7 with 2 touchdowns.

BYU quarterback Taysom Hill is putting up some early numbers that could make him a Heisman contender if he keeps it up. Hill has completed 71.9% of his passes for 489 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception, and has also rushed for 196 yards on 36 carries with 5 touchdowns. Running back Jamaal Williams has 19 carries for 89 yards. running back Adam Hine has only 10 carries but has 2 rushing touchdowns,  plus a receiving touchdown. Receiver Jordan Leslie has 9 catches for 107 yards. Mitch Mathews and  Algernon Brown will also get a lot of targets.

Houston is 7-0 ATS in road games, 8-1 after rushing for more than 200 yards, and on grass, 4-1 after scoring 40 points or more, and in September, 15-5 after a straight up win, 6-2 after allowing 100 rushing yards or less, 11-4 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 5-2 after allowing 20 points or less, 1-4 after gainign more than 450 total yards and overall.

BYU is 3-0-1 ATS at home, 5-1 in September, 4-1 after allowing 20 points or less, 7-2 in Thursday games, 20-6 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 5-11 after a straight up win, 2-5 after scoring 40 points or more, and 1-4 after rushing for 200 yards or more.

Houston has struggled on offense so far, despite scoring 47 points against a very over-matched  Grambling team. BYU has looked good so far especially in a rout on the road  at a good Texas team, albeit one racked by injuries and suspensions. This line has moved up 4.5 points. I think BYU wins this game easily at home in a battle of Cougars.

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