College Football Week Six Picks: Air Force Falcons at Navy Midshipmen
Air Force Falcons at Navy Midshipmen
Navy Memorial Stadium – Annapolis, Maryland
Saturday, October 5, 2013, 11:30 am Eastern, TV: CBS
Opening Line: Navy -11
Current Line: Navy -11
Opening Total: 55 1/2
Current Total: 55 1/2
Opening Money Line: Navy -400 / Air Force +320
Current Money Line: Navy -440 / Air Force +350
The 1-4 Air Force Falcons travel to service academy rival the 2-1 Navy Midshipmen Saturday. The game was in jeopardy of being cancelled this week because of the government shutdown as was the Army-Boston College game. Air Force and Army couldn’t afford to travel to the games. However, the Department of Defense gave both schools permission to use non-government funds such as conference and television revenue to travel to the games. Air Force leads the series 27-18 including 8-8 at Annapolis. Navy won last year in Colorado Springs 28-21 in overtime to snap a 2 game winning streak by the Falcons in the series.
Air Force is coached by Troy Calhoun. After a season opening win at home against Colgate 38-13, the Falcons have since lost 4 straight games all in the Mountain West Conference. Air Force lost at home to Utah State 52-20 and Wyoming 56-23, and lost at Boise State 42-20 and last week at Nevada 45-42. The Falcons are 2-3 ATS and the total is 4-1 this season. Air Force was an 11 point underdog at Nevada last week and the game went way over the 58.5 point total.
Air Force had a 42-30 lead midway through the fourth quarter against Nevada but the Wolf Pack scored two touchdowns and a two point conversion to take a 45-42 lead with 1:45 remaining. Air Force drove all the way to the Nevada 35 but the last drive ended with an interception and the Wolf Pack ran out the clock. The Falcons had 453 total yards including 375 rushing yards. Nevada had 599 total yards including 389 passing and 210 rushing yards. Each team had one turnover.
Air Force is being outscored 42 to 29 so far in 2013. The Falcons are averaging 392.8.5 yards per game including 296 rushing yards. Not surprisingly, the triple option Falcons are #8 in rushing nationally and the passing game is #122 out of 125 teams. Air Force is giving up 526.2 yards per game including 313.8 passing and 212.4 rushing yards. Air Force is #107 or worse in all defensive categories. The Falcons are -2 in turnovers with 6 takeaways. Air Force is 38/78 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 53/79. The Falcons are averaging 44 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 54. Air Force is 19/20 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns and opponents are 25/27 with 24 touchdowns.
Quarterback Kale Pearson tore his ACL in the first game of the year and is out for the season. Back-up Jaleel Awini threw for 275 yards in 4 games with no touchdowns and a pick, along with 220 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. However he was suspended indefinitely for violating the Academy’s honor code. Karson Roberts started the Nevada game and will be the starter going forward. Roberts has thrown for 140 yards with 3 touchdowns and a pick, along with 27 carries, 175 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Broam Hart has 62 carries, 292 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jon Lee has 36 carries, 278 yards and 3 touchdowns. Anthony LaCoste has 32 carries, 137 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Sam Gagliano has 8 catches, 112 yards and a touchdown, along with 9 carries for 119 yards. Jalen Robinette has 4 catches, 107 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ty MacArthur has 7 catches for 99 yards but is doubtful with a concussion.
Navy is coached by Ken Niumatalolo. The Midshipmen lost their first game of the season last week at Western Kentucky 19-7. Navy has wins at Indiana 41-35 and at home against Delaware 51-7. The Midshipmen are 2-1 ATS and the total is 1-2 this season. Navy was a 3.5 point favorite at Western Kentucky and the game went way under the 59.5 point total.
Navy only managed 162 total yards and 10 first downs against Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers racked up 417 total yards including 219 rushing yards. Both teams had 2 turnovers.
Navy is outscoring teams 33-20 this season. The Midshipmen are averaging 429 yards per game on offense including the nation’s sixth leading rushing attack at 301 yards per game. Like Air Force, passing is an after thought at best and navy is #118 in passing at 128 yards per game. On defense, the Middies are allowing 411.3 yards per game including 246.7 passing and 164.7 rushing yards. Navy is +3 in turnovers with 6 takeaways. Navy averages 26 penalty yards per game and opponents average 58.3. The Midshipmen are 22/41 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 21/48. Navy is 14/16 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns and opponents are 8/10 with 7 touchdowns.
Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds has completed 66.7% of his passes for 324 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, along with 53 carries, 259 yards and 5 touchdowns. He left the Western Kentucky game in the first half with a head injury and is questionable against Air Force. Back-up John Hendrick came into that game but the offense struggled badly with him at the helm. Hendrick has thrown for 60 yards with 2 interceptions, and also has 60 rushing yards with a touchdown. Running back Darius Staten has 11 carries, 130 yards and a touchdown, along with a catch for 26 yards. Geoffrey Whiteside has 12 carries, 127 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 89 yards. He is questionable with a leg injury. Chris Swain has 37 catches, 110 yards and 2 touchdowns. DeBrandon Sanders has 10 carries for 91 yards and 3 catches for 86 yards and a touchdown. Wide receiver Casey Bolena has 5 catches for 75 yards.
Air Force is 11-4 ATS on fieldturf, 8-18 after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 2-5 after a straight-up loss, and in road games, 3-10 after allowing more than 40 points, 2-7 after passing for less than 170 yards, 1-4 against teams with winning records, 2-8 overall, 1-5 after rushing for more than 200 yards, 1-6 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 0-4 after a cover, against independent teams and in non-conference games, and 0-5 after allowing more than 450 total yards. Seven of the last nine games in this series have gone under the total. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the series recently and the road team has covered 4 of the last 5.
Navy is 6-0 ATS after gaining 275 yards or less, 15-3 against Mountain West teams, 3-7 against teams with losing road records, 2-5 on fieldturf, and after passing for 170 yards or less, 2-6 overall, 1-4 at home, 0-4 after failing to cover, 0-5 against teams with losing records, and after allowing less than 20 points. The Midshipmen are 12-2 ATS against the Falcons in the last 14 meetings including 6-1 at Annapolis.
Air Force is down to their third string quarterback, but Roberts seemed to handle the offense better than Awini. Still the Falcons’ offensive woes are nothing compared to the atrocious defense. Navy struggled on offense against Western Kentucky without Reynolds and could do so again. However, Air Force can’t stop anyone and this could be a high scoring affair as Navy isn’t exactly great on defense either. I think 11 points is too many for a rivalry game like this but Navy wins late.
Our best college football picks are available now to help you dominate the books and increase your bankroll. Get a full season of picks for both NFL and college football for just $650.