College Football Week Eight Preview: Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan State Spartans
Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan State Spartans
Spartan Stadium – East Lansing, Michigan
Saturday, October 19, 2013, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: Big Ten Network
Opening Line: Michigan State -24 1/2
Current Line: Michigan State -27 1/2
Opening Total: 42 1/2
Current Total: 44
Opening Money Line: Michigan State -5000 / Purdue +1700
Current Money Line: Michigan State -6000 / Purdue +1800
The 5-1 Michigan State Spartans are tied with Nebraska at 2-0 in the Big Ten Legends Division. The Spartans host the 1-5 Purdue Boilermakers who are 0-2 in the Big Ten Leaders division. Michigan State leads the series 32-28-3 and have won four straight in the series. The Spartans won the last meeting in 2010 in East Lansing 35-31.
Purdue is coached by Darrell Hazell. The only win for Purdue came at home over Indiana State 20-14. The Boilermakers have road losses at Cincinnati 42-7 and Wisconsin 41-10, along with home losses to Notre Dame 31-24, Northern Illinois 55-24 and last week against Nebraska 44-7. Purdue has lost four straight games. Purdue is 1-5 ATS and the total is 3-3 this season. Purdue was a 13 point underdog against Nebraska and the total was 58.
Nebraska scored the first 44 points of the game before Purdue avoided the shutout with a touchdown with 39 seconds left in the game. The Cornhuskers had 435 total yards including 251 rushing yards. The Boilermakers had 216 total yards including just 32 rushing yards. The game was sloppy on both sides as it featured 15 combined penalties and 5 combined turnovers.
Purdue is being outscored 38-15 this season. Purdue is #116 nationally in points allowed. The Boilermakers are averaging 287.3 total yards per game including 209.5 passing yards and 77.8 rushing yards. The Boilermakers are 120th or worse nationally in scoring, total, and rushing offense out of 125 teams. The pass defense isn’t much better at #86. On defense, Purdue is allowing 417.2 yards per game on defense, including 222.7 passing and 194.5 rushing yards. Purdue is -4 on turnovers with 13 giveaways. The Boilermakers are 32/105 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 51/113. Purdue has forced 10 sacks this season and allowed 15. The Boilermakers are averaging 48 penalty yards per game, and opponents are averaging 31. Purdue is 10/16 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns, and opponents are 24/26 with 20 touchdowns. The Boilermakers have a kick return for a touchdown, and have given up 3 pick sixes.
Quarterback Rob Henry has completed 53.3% of his passes for 832 yards with 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and he also has 2 rushing touchdowns. He was benched in the Norhtern Illinois game in favor of freshman Danny Etling, who also started against Nebraska. Etling will remain the starter until further notice. Etling has thrown for 425 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Running back Akeem Hunt has 71 carries for 250 yards along with 21 catches for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns. Hunt also has a kick return for a touchdown. Dalyn Dawkins has 28 carries for 105 yards, along with 7 catches for 71 yards. Receiver DeAngelo Yancey has 14 catches for 295 yards and a touchdown. Shane Mikesky has 12 catches for 147 yards. Tight end Justin Sinz has 17 catches, 129 yards and 2 touchdowns. B.J. Knauf has 9 catches, 95 yards and a touchdown, along with 11 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown. Knauf is suspended indefinitely after being suspended for shoplifting along with little used receiver Jordan Woods. Tight end Gabe Holmes is out for the season with a broken wrist.
Michigan State is coached by Mark Dantonio. The Spartans only loss came at Notre Dame 17-13. Michigan State has home wins over Western Michigan 26-13, South Florida 21-6, Youngstown State 55-17, and last week against Indiana 42-28, along with a road win at Iowa 26-14. The Spartans are 3-2-1 ATS and the total is 3-3 this season. Michigan state was a 10 point favorite at home against Indiana and the total was 54.
Indiana took an early 7-0 lead against Michigan State but the Spartans would take a 21-14 lead into halftime. Michigan State would expand the lead to 42-21 in the fourth quarter, but Indiana would score a late touchdown to make the final 42-28. The Spartans had 473 total yards including 238 rushing yards. Indiana had 351 total yards including 259 passing yards. Michigan State had 10 penalties for 100 yards and 2 turnovers, while Indiana had 7 penalties for 65 yards and a turnover.
Michigan State is outscoring teams 31-16 this season. The Spartans are #8 nationally in points allowed. On offense, Michigan State is averaging 374.7 total yards per game including 186.8 rushing yards and 187.8 passing yards. The Spartans are #89 in total offense and #104 in passing out of 125 teams in FBS. On defense, MSU is allowing 227.7 yards per game including 170.3 passing and 57.3 rushing yards. The Spartans lead the nation in total and rushing defense and are #10 against the pass. Michigan State is +3 in turnovers with 11 takeaways. The Spartans are averaging 79 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 56. MSU is 48/107 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 27/101. The Spartans have forced 11 sacks and allowed 4 this season. Michigan State is 19/22 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns, and opponents are 11/13 with 9 touchdowns. The Spartans have 4 defensive touchdowns this season.
Michigan State has used 3 quarterbacks this season. Connor Cook has completed 57.7% of his passes for 923 yards with 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 30 carries for 103 yards. Andrew Maxwell has thrown for 114 yards with no touchdowns or picks, and also has a few carries for minimal yardage. Cook will start for the foreseeable future but Maxwell could see some snaps. Freshman Tyler O’Connor has also taken a few snaps this season. Running back Jeremy Langford has 95 carries, 420 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 52 yards and a touchdown. Nick Hill has 42 catches, 219 yards and a touchdown, along with 2 catches. Receiver MacGarrett Kings Jr. has 23 catches, 258 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bennie Fowler has 18 catches for 238 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 21 rushing yards. He is probable with a hamstring injury. Aaron Burbridge has 17 catches for 146 yards.
Purdue is 8-2 ATS after a double digit home loss, 2-5 after gaining 275 total yards or less, 11-28-1 in October, 3-8-1 in Big Ten games, 2-7 on grass, 1-4 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 1-5 against teams with winning home records and after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 3-15 after allowing 40 points or more, 1-6 overall, 0-6 against teams with winning records, 0-4 after a straight up loss, after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, and in road games. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 in this series.
Michigan State is 4-0 ATS in October, 3-0-1 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards and overall, 7-2-1 after a cover, 3-1-1 after a straight up win, 6-2-1 after rushing for more than 200 yards, 5-2 in Big Ten games and after gaining more than 450 total yards, 5-13 against teams with losing road records, 3-9 at home, and 3-9-1 on grass. The home team is 9-3-1 in this series recently. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 at home against the Boilermakers.
Purdue has one of the worst offenses in the country, and Michigan State has the nation’s best defense in total yards. It isn’t a good combination for the Boilermakers. The Spartan offense has improved a lot since Cook took over under center. Michigan State should roll in this game, and the only question is whether Purdue will even get on the board.
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