College Football Week 7 Picks ATS: San Jose State Spartans at Colorado State Rams
Odds courtesy of Bovada
San Jose State enters the game at 2-3 and is coming off a victory over Hawaii last week, 37-27. The Spartans have a strong pass offense, but the team has struggled to find the end zone this season. Despite ranking 20th in the nation in pass yardage, the team has generated just 22 points per game, largely in part due to the failures of the Spartan backs. The team is barely rushing for 100 yards per game, and the predictability in the offense has been problematic at times.
This week, the Spartans will find itself 4-point underdogs on the road against a conference foe in Colorado State. San Jose State sports a superior offense, but the question will be whether it can contain the offense of Colorado State. The Rams aren’t particularly potent via the air and the running backs have had only moderate success, but San Jose State was picked to be a weak defensive team and thus far that has held true (80th in the nation, allowing 28.8 points per game).
David Fales has not been anywhere near as successful thus far for San Jose State. Last season as a junior, Fales threw 72.5 percent for completion and had 33 TDs to just 9 INTs. Already this season, he has thrown 7 INTs and has just 9 TDs, while his completion ratio is a much more modest 56.0 percent. His QB rating has fallen from 170.8 to 129.9, and those looking for answers as to San Jose State’s decline need look no further.
Jason Simpson has been only moderately effective as the primary ball carrier for SJS. He has 255 yards but it’s taken him 58 attempts, so his 4.4 yards per carry isn’t too good, but only one other back has posted better (Jarrod Lawson, 5.6 yards per carry on 22 carries). Simpson will have to be more effective to take the pressure off Fales on offense more for this team to be more successful.
Colorado State is a bit underrated offensively with a good QB in Garrett Grayson and two backs both capable of carrying the ball a major load. Kapri Bibbs and Chris Nwoke have combined for 660 yards and Bibbs has a team leading six rushing touchdowns. Grayson is not deadly accurate at just 58.5 percent, but he doesn’t throw a lot of picks (just two this season) and he’s still racked up big yardage with 1,141 on the year.
This game promises a lot of offense and should be rather exciting. College football oddsmakers set the scoring total high at 60, and though San Jose State has struggled somewhat compared to what expectations were after last season’s rise, the Spartans could reasonably pull the narrow upset in this one.
OVER 4-0 in last 4 following bye weeks; 4-0 ATS in last 4 road games vs teams with losing home records; 7-0 ATS vs teams with losing records
3-0-1 ATS in last 4 vs teams with losing road records; 3-0-1 ATS vs teams with losing records; 4-0 ATS in last 4 overall.