Odds courtesy of 5dimes
Vanderbilt is 2-2 on the season and is coming off a 24-7 victory over UMass last week. The Commodores have lost both their SEC matchups but should be able to improve their overall record with a victory against C-USA opponent UAB, who enter the game as 20 point underdogs to the home team Vandy.
Vandy has Austyn Carta-Samuels at QB and the 6’1″ senior has impressed. He missed most of last season, but threw for 1,702 yards in 2010 and 1,953 in 2009. With 889 through just four games and a 60.7 percent completion ratio, Samuels is also a dual-threat QB with 63 rushing yards on the season.
The Commodores also have a trio of effective back fielders in Wesley Tate (191 yards), Jerron Seymour (179 yards) and Brian Kimbrow (94 yards). Tate has an additional 58 receiving yards, and Carta-Samuels has no shortage of receiving options, with Jordan Matthews (32 receptions, 471 yards) being his primary target.
UAB is 1-2 this season with their win being a 52-28 victory over NW State last week. The Blazers were badly defeated by then-No. 9 LSU on Sept 7, losing 56-17 and they lost in week 1 to Troy, 34-31 in overtime. Austin Brown has been reasonably accurate at 52.1 percent and rates high with a 145 QB rating, and Darrin Reaves has been solid in the backfield (53 rushes for 366 yards).
The Blazers have Jamarcus Nelson at WR too, who has been very productive this season (16 receptions, 301 yards). UAB has a reasonable shot at covering this 20-point spread if the offense is able to get going, though it will be difficult for the Blazers second-rate defense to counter the backs of Vandy.
UNDER 6-0 in last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing the previous week; UNDER 6-0 in last 6 following SU win of 20-plus; OVER 4-0 in lat 4 overall.
OVER 4-0 in last 4 after allowing less than 170 passing yards previous week; 4-0 ATS in last 4 after allowing less than 170 yards passing previous week; 5-0 ATS in the last 5 after allowing less than 20 points in the previous week.