College Football Week #4 Picks: Oregon State Beavers at San Diego State Aztecs
Oregon State Beavers at San Diego State Aztecs
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, California
Saturday, September 21, 2013, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: CBS Sports Network
Opening Line: Oregon State -8
Current Line: Oregon State -8
Opening Total: 53
Current Total: 53
Opening Money Line: Oregon St -400 / SDSU +320
Current Money Line: Oregon St -320 / SDSU +260
The 2-1 Oregon State Beavers travel to the 0-2 San Diego State Aztecs Saturday. It is the fourth ever meeting between the schools. The Aztecs lead the series 2-1, but Oregon St won the last game in 2000 35-3 in Corvallis. San Diego St will play in Corvallis next season.
Oregon State is coached by Mike Riley. The Beavers opened the season by being upset at home by Eastern Washington 49-46. The Beavers have rebounded with home wins over Hawaii 33-14 and at Utah last week 51-48 in overtime in the Pac 12 opener. Oregon State is 1-2 ATS and the total is 2-1 this season. The Beavers were 3.5 point underdogs at Utah last week and the total was 53.5.
Oregon State jumped out to an early 13-0 lead against Utah. The two teams then traded touchdowns to make it 20-7, but Utah kicked a field goal with 20 seconds left in the second to pull within 20-10 at halftime. OSU opened the third quarter with a 73 yard interception return for a touchdown to go up 27-10. Utah scored two straight touchdowns to make it 27-24. The Beavers scored before the end of the third to take a 34-24 lead. Utah scored again early in the fourth to pull within 34-31. Oregon State kicked a field goal to lead by 6 points.
Utah took their first lead on the game at 38-37 with 4:25 left. Oregon St scored with 2:29 left to regain the lead on the fifth touchdown pass of the game from quarterback Sean Mannion and the second of 3 TD catches by receiver Brandin Cooks. Mannion also completed the pass for the 2 point conversion to put Oregon St up 45-38. Mannion passed for 443 yards and Cooks had 9 catches for 210 yards. Utah would tie it up at 45 with 21 seconds left. Oregon St fumbled the kickoff at their own 13 but recovered it. The Beavers took a knee to send the game into overtime. Oregon St won the toss and elected to go on defense first. The Utes could only manage a field goal on their possession, and Mannion threw a six yard touchdown pass to Cooks to grab the win for the Beavers 51-48. Oregon State had 491 total yards but only 48 rushing yards. Utah had 539 total yards including 260 rushing yards. However, Utah quarterback Travis Wilson threw 3 costly interceptions, and the Beavers didn’t have a turnover.
Oregon State is outscoring teams 43-37 this season. The Beavers are averaging 508.7 yards per game including 438.7 passing yards. The Beavers lead the nation in passing yards but are #119th out of 125 teams in rushing at 70 yards per game. On defense, Oregon State is allowing 467.7 total yards per game including 299 passing yards. OSU is 109th or worse in total defense, against the pass and points allowed. The Beavers are +3 in turnovers with four takeaways. The Beavers average 54 penalty yards per game. OSU is 24/49 on third and fourth down conversions. The Beavers have forced 6 sacks so far in three games. Oregon State is 18/18 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns.
Mannion has completed 72.5% of his passes for 1,237 yards with 12 touchdowns and an interception. Running back Storm Woods has 45 carries 152 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 17 catches for 143 yards. He is listed as out with a concussion suffered last week. Look for Terron Ward to get most of the carries. He has 18 carries for 43 yards and a touchdown,along with 6 catches for 26 yards. Cooks has 29 catches, 498 yards and 7 touchdowns. Richard Mullaney has 15 catches, 258 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Connor Hamlett has 16 catches, 115 yards and 2 touchdowns. Three Beaver offensive linemen and 2 linebackers are listed as questionable to out Saturday.
San Diego St is looking for their first win in 2013 under coach Rocky Long. The Aztecs suffered an emabarrasing 40-19 win at home to open the season against FCS school Eastern Illinois. San Diego St took last week off after getting blown out at Ohio State 42-7 two weeks ago. The Aztecs are 0-2 ATS and both games have gone under the total. SDSU was a 28 point underdog at Ohio St and the total was 55.
The Aztecs were never in the game against the Buckeyes as Ohio St took a 35-0 lead into halftime. The Buckeyes added another touchdown in the third, before San Diego St finally scored with less than 2 minutes to go in the third. Neither team would score for the rest of the game. The Aztecs had 280 total yards and 17 first downs. SDSU had 5 penalties for 50 yards and 4 turnovers. Ohio State had 445 total yards including 263 rushing yards. The Buckeyes had 8 penalties for 75 yards and a turnover.
San Diego St is being outscored 41-13 this season. The Aztecs are averaging 360 total yards per game, including 93 rushing yards. SDSU is 90th in total offense, 112th in rushing, and 120th in points scored. On defense, the Aztecs are giving up 489 yards per game including 271.5 passing and 217.5 rushing. SDSU is 102nd or worse in all defensive categories. San Diego St is averaging 57.5 penalty yards per game, but opponents are averaging 68.5. The Aztecs are -6 in turnovers with 9 giveaways. SDSU is 12/45 on third and fourth down conversions. The Aztecs have allowed 7 sacks and forced only one. San Diego St is 4/6 scoring in the red zone with only one touchdown.
San Diego St uses two quarterbacks, but neither has done much. Adam Dingwell has completed 39.7% of his passes for 318 yards with no touchdowns and 5 picks. Quinn Kaehler has completed 61.1% of his passes for 216 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Riley has said Kaehler will start against Oregon St, but Dingwell could see some snaps. No San Diego St running back has more than 47 rushing yards, but Chase Price, Donnel Pumphrey and Adam Muema split the snaps. Receiver Ezell Ruffin has 10 catches for 171 yards. Colin Lockett has 14 catches for 156 yards, along with 2 carries for 52 yards and the Aztecs’ lone rushing touchdown. Four Aztec defenders are listed on the injury report including 3 linebackers.
Oregon St is 7-1 ATS against teams with losing home records, 6-1 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 4-1 in September, 5-2 after allowing more than 40 points and 200 yards rushing, 19-8-1 in road games, 7-3 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 13-6-1 after passing for more than 280 yards, 1-4 after scoring more than 40 points and after a straight up win, and 0-4 after a cover.
San Diego St is 5-2 ATS after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, and after rushing for less than 100 yards, 11-5 after a bye week, 5-12 against teams with winning road records, 3-10 against Pac 12 teams, 0-5 in non-conference games and 0-4 in September.
Okay, San Diego St is supposed to get killed at Ohio St. There is no shame in that. However, getting destroyed at home by Eastern Illinois is a different story. However, if have 9 turnovers, allow 7 sacks, allow almost 500 yards of total offense per game and are averaging less than 400 yourself on offense, you won’t win many games. Oregon St can’t stop anyone on defense but San Diego St is pathetic on offense. I also worry that San Diego St will struggle to stop the explosive Beaver offense. I think Oregon St wins this game handily, but their defense might keep it interesting.