College Football Week 4 Picks ATS: Troy at Mississippi State
Odds courtesy of 5dimes
Troy began the season with a couple of wins, but according to college football oddsmakers the team could be on its way to losing its second straight just as quickly as it squares off against a heavily favored Mississippi State team. Last week, Troy fell by a TD to Arkansas State.
Troy has been great airing it out this year. The team ranks 7th in the nation in passing yardage behind the arm of Corey Robinson. Robinson, a 6’1″ senior, is having his finest year so far in this short season. He’s thrown for 870 yards with a 75.5 percent competition ratio, though he has been sacked three times and intercepted three, as well. He relies on a trio of receivers (Deon Athony, Jordan Chunn, Brandon Burks) who have been very productive and caught 86 of the team’s 116 receptions.
What Troy will encounter with Mississippi State is a team from a much tougher conference, though not a powerhouse in the SEC by any means. The Bulldogs won their only real winnable game of the season, so far, as the team predictably dropped matches to both then-No. 13 Oklahoma State and Auburn (on the road). Next week won’t prove any easier with No. 6 LSU visiting, so the Bulldogs will want to capitalize on this chance to improve to 3-1 before facing the Tigers.
The Bulldogs have an effective attack both on ground and in the air, though neither is overwhelming. Dak Prescott is accountable for both, to simply. Prescott, the dual threat QB, has thrown for 476 yards and rushed for 162. That makes up nearly half the team’s yardage, with featured back Ashton Shumpert contributing 100 in his own right. The predictability of the offense won’t be a problem against Troy, but it is a huge factor in what limits Mississippi State’s success in the SEC.
OVER 7-0 in last 7 after accumulating 450 total yards previous week; 0-5 ATS in last 5 vs teams with losing home records; 4-0-1 ATS in last 5 in Sept
UNDER 4-0 in last 4 vs Sun Belt; UNDER 8-1 in last 9 non-conf; UNDER 7-1-1 in last 9 after accumulating 200+ yards rushing previous game