College Football Wagering Preview: Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Jones AT&T Stadium – Lubbock, Texas

Saturday, September 14, 2014, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Opening Line: Texas Tech -2 1/2
Current Line: Texas Tech -1
Opening Total: 66
Current Total: 66 1/2
Opening Money Line: Texas Tech -145 / Arkansas +125
Current Money Line: Texas Tech -120 / Arkansas +100

Texas Tech is a slight favorite at home against Arkansas Saturday.
Texas Tech is a slight favorite at home against Arkansas Saturday.

Two former Southwest Conference rivals meet for the first time since 1991 as the Arkansas Razorbacks travel to the Texas Tech Red Raiders. They have not played since Arkansas left for the SEC in 1992. The Southwest Conference would eventually be dissolved and Texas Tech would join what would become the Big 12. Arkansas leads the series 28-7 but Texas Tech did win the last two games in the series. The Red Raiders will make the return trip to Fayeteville in 2015.

Arkansas is coached by Brett Bielema. The Razorbacks are 1-1 this season with a 45-21 loss at Auburn and a 73-7 home win over Nicholls State last week. Arkansas is 1-1 ATS and both games have gone over the total. Texas Tech is 2-0 under coach Kliff Kingsbury. The Red Raiders have less than impressive wins at home against Central Arkansas 42-35 and last week at UTEP 30-26. Texas Tech is 0-2 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season.

Arkansas is outscoring teams 47-26 this season. The Razorbacks are averaging 506 total yards per game including 182 passing and 324 rushing yards. On defense, Arkansas is allowing 419 yards per game including 251 passing and 168 rushing yards per game. The Razorbacks have forced 2 turnovers and have 2 of their own. Arkansas is averaging 55 penalty yards per game and opponents average 53. The Razorbacks are 6/19 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 14/34. Arkansas has forced 7 sacks and allowed 1 this season. The Razorbacks are 8/9 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns, and opponents are 5/6 with 5 touchdowns. Arkansas has allowed a defensive touchdown.

Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen has completed 61.1% of his passes for 292 yards with 6 touchdowns and an interception. Running back Alex Collins has 23 carries for 199 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jonathan Williams has 11 carries for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns. Six different receivers have caught a touchdown pass for the Razorbacks. Keon Hatcher has 2 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown, along with an 82 yard rushing touchdown.

Texas Tech is outscoring teams 36-31 this season. The Red Raiders average 570 yards per game on offense including 365 passing and 205 rushing yards per game. On defense, Texas Tech is allowing 400 yards per game including 172 passing and 228 rushing yards per game. The Red Raiders have three turnovers this season and have yet to force one of their own. Texas Tech is averaging 102 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 40 per game. The Red Raiders are 12/25 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 17/42. Texas Tech has forced 3 sacks and hasn’t allowed a sack yet. The Red Raiders are 8/10 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns and opponents are 10/10 with 6 touchdowns.

Texas Tech quarterback Davis Webb has completed 67.5% of his passes for 720 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Justin Stockton has 14 carries for 173 yards with 2 touchdowns. DeAndre Washington has 32 carries for 163 yards with a touchdown. Bradley Marquez has 14 catches for 217 yards and 5 touchdowns. Jakeem Grant has 14 catches for 198 yards.

Arkansas is 4-0 ATS against Big 12 teams, 13-5 after scoring more than 40 points, 4-9 overall, 2-5 after rushing for more than 200 yards, 8-22 in September, 2-6 in non-conference games, 4-13 against teams with winning records, 3-13 in road games, 2-9 against teams with winning home records, 0-5 after a straight up win and after allowing 275 total yards or less, 0-4 after a cover, after a straight up win of 20 points or more, and after allowing 20 points or less.

Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS after rushing for more than 200 yards, 6-2 in September, 2-5 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 3-13 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 1-5 after failing to cover and at home, 1-7 overall and 0-4 on fieldturf.

Texas Tech has not looked good so far in two games, but they are 2-0 and that is what counts. Arkansas was blown out on the road by a very good Auburn team and destroyed an overmatched Nicholls State team. It isn’t a good sign that Texas Tech gave up 277 yards rushing to a mediocre UTEP team and are now facing an Arkansas team averaging over 300 yards per game on the ground. I like the Razorbacks to pull off the mild upset on the road.

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