College Football Shoot-out Week 7: Navy Midshipmen at Duke Blue Devils
Odds courtesy of 5dimes
In a game many thought might not be played due to the Government shutdowns, the Navy Midshipmen defeated Air Force 28-10 last week to improve to 3-1 on the season. This week, the Midshipmen will find themselves narrow 4-point underdogs on the road at Duke, by the renderings of college football oddsmakers at 5dimes
On offense, Navy does one thing and does it well: drive the ball on the ground. Navy ranks No. 9 in the nation in rushing yardage per game (288.8). Last week, the Midshipmen had 273 rushing yards with just 10 passing plays the entire game. It isn’t that Keenan Reynolds can’t throw the ball; he’s been reasonably accurate this season at 64.5 percent.
But the offense is structured around his dual-threat nature, as Reynolds is the top rusher too with 385 yards on 81 carries. Chris Swain sees major duty as well (45 carries for 145 yards), but Navy is a team built on the talents of Reynolds.
Duke comes back again this season with a high powered offense that ranks 36th in the nation thus far generating 36.0 points per game. The defense is lackluster, allowing 28 a game, but the Blue Devils have a balanced offense centered around the talents of quarterback Brandon Connette.
Connette has thrown for 1,022 yards on the season and rushed for an additional 224 and when he isn’t moving the ground on the ball, he has three talented backs to hand it off to in Juwan Thompson, Josh Snead and Jela Duncan (listed as probable with a shoulder injury). Duke has scored 12 rushing TDs this season and has 11 via the air, demonstrating the balance.
The Duke defense will likely encounter major problems with Reynolds, but most teams do. The added edge of being at home is what makes the Blue Devils the popular pick on money lines (in addition to being favored). The total is set high in this game, but neither team is known to be defensively that strong, while both sport good, if not unusual, offenses.
0-5 ATS in last 5 following bye weeks; UNDER 10-1 in last 11 following bye weeks; UNDER 8-1 in last 9 following ATS win.
OVER 4-0 in last 4 vs Independent; 0-5 ATS vs teams with winning records; UNDER 4-0 in last 4 following bye weeks.
Head-to-head: OVER 6-0 in last 6 meetings; Road Team 4-1 ATS in last 5.