College Football Saturday: (11) Wisconsin Badgers at (8) Michigan State Spartans

Big South Tournament — Michigan State is 3.5 point favorites in Big Ten Week 4 play against Wisconsin.

(11) Wisconsin-(8) Michigan St
Time: NOON ET
Spread: MIST -3.5
Total: 41

Betting odds c/o 5dimes

Wisconsin inherited a rough schedule that is now ready to hit its roughest part. The Badgers defeated then-No. 5 LSU in Week 1 16-14 and rolled to week 2 and 3 wins over Akron and Georgia State, but now Wisconsin faces three of the top teams in the nation, and Big Ten, in the next few weeks.

It begins with the Badgers as 3.5-point underdogs to Michigan State this week, and next week brings Michigan followed by Ohio State in Week 6. This is a make or break stretch for a surprisingly tough Badgers team.

The LSU victory put the Badgers on the map.

In the Week 1 win, Bart Houston threw 19 of 31 for 205 yards but had no TDs and two interceptions. The Badgers rushed for 134 yards on 42 carries. Wide receiver Troy Fumagalli was the star of the offense with 100 receiving yards on seven catches. Robert Wheelwright also had 60 yards on four catches.

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The Badgers caught 19 passes for 205 yards and 10.8 yards per attempt but did not manage a receiving TD. Kicker Rafael Gaglianone was perfect 3 of 3 on his field goal attempts including a 48-yarder and an extra point to score 10 of Wisconsin’s 16 points in the victory. He will not be playing this week due to a back injury. Punter PJ Rosowski averaged 40.8 yards per attempt on his four punts, with a long of 51-yard. Natrell Jamerson returned two kicks for 34 yards.

Houston is a 6’4” senior who threw for 281 yards on 57.4 percent passing last season as a junior. This season he is averaging 62 percent for completion with a 7.42 yard per attempt average. He has thrown two interceptions and been sacked four times, though. His performance against Akron was his best of the season when he threw 15 of 22 for 231 yards and two TDs. He had just 91 yards passing in the 23-17 win over Georgia State. In that game, the Badgers split duties between Houston and Alex Hornibrook, who threw 8 of 12 for 122 yards. The Badgers had 400 total yards of offense in the game.

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Michigan State is 2-0 after knocking off Furman and Notre Dame this season. The Spartans defeated the Irish 36-28 last week as Tyler O’Connor threw 19 of 26 for 241 yards with two TDs and one interception. O’Connor also ran for 43 yards on 10 carries, and the Spartans gained 260 rushing yards on 52 attempts with three rushing TDs.

Gerald Holmes rushed 13 times for 100 yards and LJ Scott was good for 98 yards on 22 attempts. Holmes had two of the TDs and a 73-yard run in the game. Both Donnie Corley and RJ Shelton had big receiving games with 12 catches between them for 168 total combined yards. The Spartans had two receiving TDs and 19 catches at a 12.7 yard per attempt average.

O’Connor is now a senior, but this is his first full season as a starter. He threw just 54 passes in the previous three seasons but has already attempted 44 this season at a 72.7 percent clip. The Spartans are getting 9.8 yards per O’Connor pass attempt, and his passer rating of 183.4 would be higher still if not for the two picks he has launched.

Even so, O’Connor has five TDs on the season and an adjusted quarterback rating of 73.2.

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ATS TRENDS

Wisconsin
Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Badgers are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Badgers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Badgers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. Badgers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games.

Michigan State
Spartans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Spartans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Spartans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Spartans are 33-16-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Spartans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

OU TRENDS

Wisconsin
Under is 5-1 in Badgers last 6 games following a ATS loss. Under is 5-1 in Badgers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 games in September. Under is 4-1-1 in Badgers last 6 games on grass. Under is 11-3 in Badgers last 14 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 3-1-1 in Badgers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 8-3 in Badgers last 11 games following a straight up win. Under is 10-4 in Badgers last 14 games overall.

Michigan State
Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 6-2 in Spartans last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 5-2 in Spartans last 7 games overall. Over is 10-4 in Spartans last 14 games following a ATS win. Under is 7-3 in Spartans last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

HEAD TO HEAD

Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Michigan State. Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

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