College Football Picks Week 4: (13) Florida State Seminoles at South Florida Bulls

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The Florida State Seminoles were absolutely obliterated in Week 3 by Lamar Jackson and the Louisville Cardinals.

The Seminoles fell precipitously from its No. 2 national ranking to No. 13 in losing 63-20 to Louisville, as Jackson just had a field day against the Seminoles’ defense. He threw for 216 yards on 20 passes while rushing for another 146 yards and four TDs, as the Cardinals rushed out to a 35-10 lead at the half before coasting the rest of the way.

Brandon Radcliff also had 118 yards on 14 carries and a TD, and Jeremy Smith had a pair of rushing TDs as well. James Quick had seven catches for 122 yards and Jaylen Smith caught the lone receiving TD with 35 yards on his pair of catches. The Cardinals utterly demolished the Florida State defense, and it was not all just Jackson. Can FSU get it back on track when it travels to face the South Florida Bulls in Week 4?

It will take better play from quarterback Deondre Francois. He threw 7 of 18 last week for just 101 yards and had an interception with a quarterback rating of just 16.2. Francois was even less successful on the ground, going for -34 yards on 12 carries.

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The Seminoles got production from Jacques Patrick, who rushed seven times for 79 yards, but the team averaged just 4.0 yards per carry on its 43 attempts and that is not going to be anywhere near enough with the way Francois was struggling in the pocket. The Seminoles basically need a complete 180 degree turnaround this week against a tough Bulls team on the road.

South Florida is 3-0 after knocking off Towson, Northern Illinois and Syracuse in Weeks 1 through 3. Last week was a 45-20 win over the Orange which saw Quinton Flowers throw 12 of 24 for 188 yards and a TD, while rushing for 51 more yards on 11 carries.

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Running back Marlon Mack had 115 yards on just nine carries with two TDs and a 52-yard run, and the Bulls had 220 passing yards and 234 on the ground. Rodney Adams rushed four times for 34 yards but led South Florida in receiving with 67 yards on four catches and the lone receiving TD. The Bulls had five receivers with 30 or more yards in the game.

Flowers is now in his junior season and he threw for 2,296 yards last season while connecting on 59.1 percent of his passes. He had 22 TD passes and eight interceptions, but he was sacked 20 times on the season and had a raw QBR of 56.3. This season may be better. He has upped his per-completion average to 9.55 yards with seven TDs and just one pick on the season. If he maintains the improvement in accuracy, Flowers could help the Bulls to an AAC title.

Mack is also a junior and he has rushed for over 1,000 yards in the past two seasons, including last season’s 1,381 yards and eight TDs. Mack already has three TDs on just 18 carries this season, so when the Bulls really up his payload the production may pour out. He is averaging 9.6 yards per attempt this season.

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ATS TRENDS

Florida State
  • Seminoles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
  • Seminoles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
  • Seminoles are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
  • Seminoles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Seminoles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
South Florida
  • Bulls are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Bulls are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
  • Bulls are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
  • Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
  • Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
  • Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
  • Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
  • Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Bulls are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
  • Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • Bulls are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

OU TRENDS

Florida State
  • Under is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 road games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 games overall.
  • Over is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
  • Over is 5-2 in Seminoles last 7 non-conference games.
  • Under is 17-7 in Seminoles last 24 games on grass.
  • Under is 7-3 in Seminoles last 10 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 11-5 in Seminoles last 16 games in September.
  • Over is 13-6 in Seminoles last 19 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
South Florida
  • Over is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 home games.
  • Over is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games on grass.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in Bulls last 6 non-conference games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 19-7 in Bulls last 26 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games overall.
  • Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
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Posted by on Sep 24 2016. Filed under College Football, Headlines. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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