College Football Lines: Analysis of the Opening & Current Spreads

college football lines

A lot of false moves setup a ton of value for wiseguys on the week 2 college football lines

After the second week of the college football season, it’s time to get some perspective on some teams.  Some teams bounced back after a poor opening, while other teams validated their first week results. Yes, they are that bad or that good.  Here is a breakdown of the early line moves. You can get a sense where the confidence lies with each team:  If you dont feel like reading why the numbers are moving you can just visit the college football lines page and get up to date and opening point spreads for all of the games.

California (-3) at Nevada: Cal opened a one-point favorite, but after totally blasting Colorado, it appears that the confidence is with the Golden Bears as the more complete team. Nevada posted two big wins, but has yet to chalk up a win over a quality opponent.  Line opened 1, was bet all the way up to 3.5 where we saw some takeback from the sharps moving the line down to -2.5/3.

Arkansas at Georgia (-2.5): This game opened a pick ‘em, but the early money has come in on the Bulldogs driving the line up to -3, with wiseguys taking some back driving the number back to Georgia -2.5.  Would have to think this line goes back to -3 at some point as this line is assuming that Arkansas would be favored over Georgia on a neutral field, I am not buying that right now.

Connecticut (-6 ½) at Temple: UConn bounced back after that loss to Michigan in the opener to crush Texas Southern, 62-3. The Huskies opened a four-point favorite and have been bet up to -7, with some buy back coming to drive the line back down to -6.5. Temple won a defensive battle with Central Michigan, 13-10, in overtime. The question is whether Temple can keep up with UConn.

San Diego State at Missouri (-13.5): Missouri opened a 15-point favorite, but the early money pushed it up a point likely to setup a better number on San Diego State. Sure enough sharp money has pounded this game all the way down to 13.5.  The Aztecs, who have wins over Nicholls State and New Mexico State, are stepping up in class this week.

Alabama (-24) at Duke: The Crimson Tide look solid and the public buys into them as they opened a 21 ½ -point favorite and it has been bet up already to -23.5 and then with the announcement that Mark Ingram would likely play the line ticked up a 1/2 point to -24.

Hawaii at Colorado (-11): The Buffaloes got smacked by California. Hawaii, historically, does not travel well. But being 13 ½-point underdogs was a bit much against a struggling Colorado squad and wiseguys wacked this one down to -10.5 and there has been a little buy back on the Buffs moving the point spread back up to -11.

Southern Cal (-12) at Minnesota: Southern Cal opened a 13-point favorite and were bet up to -14.5. This was an obvious wrong way bet and some syndicate/betting group made a huge score taking out Minnesota +14 and +14.5 for a nice sum of cash.  This is a classic case of sharps versus squares as Wiseguys love the Gophers this week, while the public is all over the road favorite USC likely because of Minnesota losing to South Dakota, 41-38, there is a little confidence the Gophers will be able to slow down the Trojans in the public’s eye.

Washington State at Southern Methodist (-23 ½): SMU, which opened a 21-point favorite, lost a close opener to Texas Tech, but came back with a solid win over Alabama-Birmingham. Washington State was embarrassed by Oklahoma State, 65-17, before beating Montana State.  This is the classic case of no sharp or square wanting any part of the Washington State Cougars right now.  The Cougs may offer value later in the year but right now the bookmakers power rating on them is still too low.

Louisville at Oregon State (-19.5): Oregon State, which opened a 14-point favorite, looked good in a loss to highly touted Texas Christian. Louisville has not shown much, losing its first two games.  We really screwed the pooch on this game.  We missed the early number of -16 (-14 was really only avialable for a couple limit bets at 1 book) and then decided to wait and see if we could get -17 again when the line was -17.5 but some betting group bet the farm on all the 17.5s driving the line up to -19.5 sucking most of the value out although it wouldn’t shock us to see this number go even higher on Saturday.

Air Force at Oklahoma (-16 ½): Air Force notched a big victory over Brigham Young, but do not get the love here. They are stepping up in class and Oklahoma, which opened a 16 ½-point favorite, was being bet up after dismantling Florida State, 47-17 to -18.5.  This was another wrong side move that wiseguys set up by betting the wrong side early.  The line is now -16.5 and that is even with both of the Falcons running backs Asher Clark and Jared Tew listed as questionable for this contest.

That concludes the week 2 line move analysis for college football.  We will be back possibly later in the week to break down who and what is betting the games and moving the lines.  You can view all the opening and current college spreads on our college football betting lines page which offers live odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Posted by on Sep 16 2010. Filed under College Football, Headlines. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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