College Football Border Battle Picks: #2 Oregon Ducks at #16 Washington Huskies
#2 Oregon Ducks at #16 Washington Huskies
Husky Stadium – Seattle, Washington
Saturday, October 12, 2013, 4:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Opening Line: Oregon -10 1/2
Current Line: Oregon -13 1/2
Opening Total: 76
Current Total: 76
Opening Money Line: Oregon -500 / Washington +390
Current Money Line: Oregon -480 / Washington +375
The #16 Washington Huskies are playing their second top 5 team in two weeks as they host the #2 Oregon Ducks who are 5-0. Last week, Washington lost at Stanford 31-28 to fall to 1-1 in the Pac 12. Oregon is 2-0 in conference. Washington leads the series 58-42-5 including 33-24-4 in Seattle. The Ducks have won 9 straight games in the series including 52-21 last year in Eugene. Oregon has beaten Washington by an average margin of 26 points during the streak, and has won each game by 17 points or more.
Oregon is coached by Mark Helfrich. The Ducks have home wins over Nicholls State 66-3, Tennessee 59-14, and California 55-16, along with road wins at Virginia 59-10 and last week at Colorado 57-16. Oregon is 5-0 ATS and the total is 4-1 this season. Oregon was a 38 point road favorite at Colorado last week and the total was 69.5.
Colorado took a 10-8 lead early in the first quarter, but Oregon would score 3 touchdowns in the last 5 minutes of the quarter to take a 29-10 lead. Colorado would kick two field goals in the second to pull within 29-16 but would not score again. Oregon would take a 43-16 into the locker room. The Ducks added 2 third quarter touchdowns to get above the huge 38 point number and also above the total. Neither team would score again. Oregon had 755 total yards including 406 passing and 349 rushing yards. The Buffaloes had 374 total yards and 15 first downs. Oregon had 3 turnovers and Colorado had 2.
Oregon is outscoring teams 59-12 this season. Oregon is #2 nationally in both points allowed and in points scored. The Ducks average 630.6 yards per game including 336 rushing and 294.6 passing yards. Oregon is #2 in total offense and #3 in rushing. Even the passing attack is #24 in the country. Oregon is allowing 331.2 yards per game on defense, including 204.8 passing and 126.4 yards. Oregon is 32nd or better in all three categories. The Ducks are +9 in turnovers for the season with 14 takeaways. Oregon is 33/78 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 28/103. The Ducks have forced 12 sacks and allowed 4. Oregon is 25/32 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns, and opponents are 9/13 with 4 touchdowns. The Ducks are averaging 69 penalty yards per game, and opponents are averaging 50. Oregon has 2 punt returns for touchdowns
Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota has completed 56.7% of his passes for 1,358 yards with 14 touchdowns, and no interceptions, along with 28 carries for 338 yards and 7 touchdowns. He is a Heisman contender. Running back De’Anthony Thomas has 42 carries, 338 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 58 yards. He is questionable with an ankle injury and missed the last two games. Byron Marshall has 71 carries, 448 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 73 yards. Thomas Tyner has 34 carries for 204 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 3 touchdowns. Receiver Josh Huff has 21 catches for 445 yards and 4 touchdowns. Bralon Addison has 19 catches for 345 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 2 punt returns for touchdowns. John Mundt, Keanon Lowe and Daryle Hawkins each have 2 touchdown catches.
Washington is coached by Steve Sarkisian. The Huskies lost their first game of the season last week at Stanford 31-28. The Huskies have home wins over Boise State 38-6, Idaho State 56-0 and against Arizona 31-13. Washington also has a road win at Illinois 34-24. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season. Washington was a 9 point underdog at Stanford and the game went over the 52 point total.
Stanford jumped out to an early 10-0 lead including running the opening kickoff back for a touchdown. They were the first points allowed by Washington in the first quarter this year. The Cardinal would take a 17-7 lead into halftime. Each team scored 2 touchdowns in the third quarter to make it 31-21 Stanford going into the fourth. Washington scored with 2:38 left in the fourth to pull within 31-28. The Huskies kicked the ball deep instead of trying the onside kick. They forced a Stanford punt with 1:51 left. The Huskies drove to midfield before turning the ball over on downs. Stanford took a knee to preserve the victory. Washington had 489 total yards including 350 passing yards. The Huskies held the Cardinal to 279 total yards and 14 first downs. Each team had a turnover. Washington had 10 penalties for 89 yards and Stanford had 7 for 48.
Washington is outscoring teams 37-15 this season. The Huskies are #33 in scoring and #10 in points allowed nationally. Washington is #5 nationally in total offense at 557 yards per game, with 298.2 passing yards (#23 nationally) and 258.8 rushing yards (#16). On defense, The Huskies are allowing 286.8 yards per game including 145.4 passing and 141.4 rushing yards. Washington is #10 in total defense and #3 against the pass. The Huskies are +2 in turnovers with 8 takeaways. Washington is averaging 92 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 52. The Huskies are 44/80 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 37/100. Washington has forced 15 sacks and allowed 8. The Huskies are 23/27 scoring in the red zone with 20 touchdowns, and opponents are 9/13 with 6 touchdowns.
Quarterback Keith Price has completed 71.3% of his passes for 1,394 yards with 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions along with 27 carries for 42 yards and a rushing touchdown. He is probable with a thumb injury. If he cant go freshman Cyler Miles will be the starter. He has thrown a touchdown pass in 7 attempts, and has 5 carries for 96 yards. Running back Bishop Sankey has 131 carries, 732 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 9 catches 96 yards and a touchdown. Jesse Callier has 26 carries, 163 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 50 yards. Dwayne Washington has 27 carries, 116 yards and a touchdown, along with a touchdown catch. Receiver Kevin Smith has 21 catches for 367 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kasen Williams has 21 catches for 344 yards and a touchdown. Jaydon Mickens has 30 catches, 273 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins has 14 catches, 149 yards and 2 touchdowns. Joshua Perkins has only 3 catches, but 2 went for touchdowns.
Oregon is 8-0 ATS against teams with winning home records, 5-0 after a cover, against teams with winning records, and after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 11-1 in road games, 10-1 after scoring 40 points or more, and after a straight up win, 5-1 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 13-3 overall, 25-7-1 in October, 15-5-2 in Pac 12 games, 18-7-2 after rushing for more than 200 yards, 21-9-1 after passing for 280 yards or more, and 34-16-1 after allowing less than 20 points. The favorite is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 in this series. The Ducks are 8-0-1 ATS against the Huskies in the last 9 and 5-2 in Seattle.
Washington is 6-1 ATS in Pac 12 games, and against teams with winning records, 5-1 after a straight up loss, and overall, 14-3 at home, 4-1 against teams with winning road records, 19-6-1 on fieldturf, 19-7-1 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 5-2 after a cover, 11-5 after allowing 170 passing yards or less, and 15-36-2 in October.
Both teams have good defenses and explosive offenses. Oregon has owned Washington the last 9 years winning each game going away. I think Washington keeps it closer this time, but the Ducks simply have too much.
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